城市供水預報與應急調度技術研究及應用
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-25 12:35
【摘要】：伴隨著全球氣候變化,我國氣候異常和極端天氣事件頻發(fā),由極端干旱引發(fā)的城市供水危機時有發(fā)生；與此同時突發(fā)性水污染事故頻發(fā),尤其是美國發(fā)生“9.11”事件及松花江化工污染事件后,城市供水安全問題日趨嚴峻和突顯；而由洪澇、地震、旱災、火災、風暴潮、沙塵暴、泥石流等自然地質災害、戰(zhàn)爭、人為破壞等重大突發(fā)事故均可能破壞飲用水源,毀壞供水管線、供水設施以及水廠,造成災期和災后一段時期內無法供應符合衛(wèi)生安全要求的飲用水局面,給人類的生命和財產造成巨大痛苦和損失。因此,為了預防由極端天氣和突發(fā)事件引起的城市供水不安全問題,保障我國城市供水安全與可持續(xù)發(fā)展,在總結國內外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,提出了城市供水應急預警理論基礎,構建了城市枯季供需水預報技術、應急預警技術、應急調度模型及應急管理系統(tǒng),并以安陽市為例,分析和探討了安陽市平原區(qū)城市供水應急預警模型的構建與實際應用。其中主要成果包括以下幾方面： (1)系統(tǒng)闡述了城市供水預報預警及應急調度理論基礎。介紹了城市供水預報方法、城市供水突發(fā)事件的分類分級、應急預警組成、預警級別及信息發(fā)布,給出了城市供水應急預案和應急調度措施。 (2)城市枯季供需水預報與預警技術 根據(jù)我國枯季徑流的特點,建立了基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡的水庫枯季徑流預報模型技術、以地下水數(shù)值模擬模型為基礎基于水均衡方程的地下水可開采量預報模型以及枯季需水量分析預報模型和城市枯季供需水預報模型,并提出了城市供水安全預警技術,包括預警等級劃分、審批權限、發(fā)布流程、預警指標和預警標準(水庫、地下水源地等)等研究方法和技術。 (3)基于規(guī)則的城市供水應急調度模型技術 以城市供水應急調度網(wǎng)絡圖為基礎,建立了基于規(guī)則的城市供水應急調度模型,即在嚴格遵循事先給定的一系列系統(tǒng)運行規(guī)則基礎上,盡可能保證供水安全或所受影響最小,依據(jù)城市供水水源優(yōu)先利用順序和用水戶優(yōu)先滿足順序,采取“優(yōu)先水源先分配、優(yōu)先用戶先滿足”的調度方式、設置工程分水參數(shù)、水庫調度運行規(guī)則、地下水利用規(guī)則、水源轉換參數(shù)、水源利用限制、用水需求等,通過城市供水應急調度逐日調節(jié)計算,快速解決在多水源、多用戶、多工程的城市供水系統(tǒng)中存在的水文補償作用、工程補償作用、應急水源利用與調度等復雜的調節(jié)計算問題,及時獲得面向城市供水安全的應急調度方案。 (4)城市供水安全應急預警與應急管理系統(tǒng) 以現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)庫為基礎,利用本論文建立的預報、預警和應急調度模型,采用面向對象的設計理念,開發(fā)了城市供水安全應急預警與調度系統(tǒng),實現(xiàn)了數(shù)據(jù)管理(信息服務)、預案管理、供需水情勢預報、應急預警(報警)、應急調度等功能,為供水安全應急管理提供了決策平臺。 (5)構建了安陽市城市供水安全應急預警模型。根據(jù)安陽市的供水特點,利用本文提出的預警理論、預警技術、預警模型和管理系統(tǒng),給出了預警標準和預警結果,并在此基礎上按不同類型的突發(fā)事件分別設置了不同情景進行分析,最終給出安陽市安全供水的調度方案。
[Abstract]:Along with the global climate change, China's climate anomaly and extreme weather events are frequent, the urban water supply crisis caused by extreme drought often happens; at the same time, the sudden water pollution accident is frequent, especially after the "9.11" and the chemical pollution incident of the Songhua River, The problems of urban water supply safety are becoming more and more serious and more and more serious, and major sudden accidents, such as flood, earthquake, drought, fire, storm surge, sandstorm, debris flow, etc., can destroy the source of drinking water, destroy the water supply pipeline, water supply facilities and water works. The supply of drinking water in line with the health and safety requirements cannot be supplied during the period of the disaster and the post-disaster period, resulting in significant suffering and loss of human life and property. Therefore, in order to prevent the unsafe problems of urban water supply caused by extreme weather and emergency, and to guarantee the safe and sustainable development of urban water supply in our country, on the basis of summing up the domestic and foreign research status, this paper puts forward the theoretical foundation of urban water supply emergency early warning. The supply and demand water forecast technology, the emergency early warning technology, the emergency dispatch model and the emergency management system of the urban dry season are constructed, and the construction and practical application of the urban water supply emergency early warning model of Anyang City are analyzed and discussed in Anyang City as an example. The main achievements include the following: (1) The early warning and emergency dispatching theory base of urban water supply forecast are expounded in this paper. The paper introduces the method of urban water supply forecast, the classification and classification of urban water supply emergency, the composition of emergency early warning, the level of early warning and the distribution of information, and gives the emergency plan and emergency dispatching measures for urban water supply. application of water and demand in the dry season of the city Based on the characteristics of the dry season run-off in China, the pre-warning technology is based on BP neural network. Based on the groundwater numerical simulation model, the groundwater exploitation forecast model, the dry season water demand analysis forecast model and the urban dry season supply and demand water forecast model based on the water equilibrium equation are presented based on the groundwater numerical simulation model, and the urban water supply safety early warning technology is put forward, including the classification of the early warning level. Research on approval authority, release process, early warning index and early warning standard (reservoir, underground water source, etc.) Methods and techniques. (3) Rules-based urban water supply Based on the network diagram of the urban water supply emergency dispatch network, the emergency dispatch model technology has set up a rule-based emergency dispatch model for urban water supply, that is, in strict compliance with a series of pre-given On the basis of system operation rules, as much as possible to ensure the safety of water supply or the minimum impact, according to the priority utilization sequence of the urban water supply water source and the priority of the water users to meet the order, adopt the "The priority water source is first distributed, and the priority users are first satisfied." dispatching mode, set the water diversion parameters of the project, the operation rules of the reservoir dispatching and the utilization of the underground water The hydrological compensation existing in multi-source, multi-user and multi-project urban water supply system can be quickly solved by daily adjustment and calculation of urban water supply emergency dispatching, such as rules, water source conversion parameters, water source utilization limits, water demand, etc. The problem of complex adjustment and calculation, such as action, engineering compensation, emergency water source utilization and scheduling, and timely access to urban water supply Emergency dispatching plan for safety. (4) City water supply safety The whole-emergency early-warning and emergency management system is based on the existing database, using the forecast, early warning and emergency dispatch model established in this paper, adopting the object-oriented design concept, and developing the city The emergency early warning and dispatching system for water supply safety realizes the functions of data management (information service), plan management, supply and demand water situation forecast, emergency early warning (alarm), emergency dispatching and the like, and is the water supply The decision-making platform is provided for safety emergency management. (5) It is built According to the characteristics of the water supply in Anyang city, the early-warning theory, the early-warning technology, the early-warning model and the management system presented in this paper are used, and the early-warning standard and the early-warning result are given, and on this basis, the early-warning standard and the early-warning result are given. the events are respectively set with different scenarios for analysis,
【學位授予單位】：中國水利水電科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU991
本文編號：2505689
[Abstract]:Along with the global climate change, China's climate anomaly and extreme weather events are frequent, the urban water supply crisis caused by extreme drought often happens; at the same time, the sudden water pollution accident is frequent, especially after the "9.11" and the chemical pollution incident of the Songhua River, The problems of urban water supply safety are becoming more and more serious and more and more serious, and major sudden accidents, such as flood, earthquake, drought, fire, storm surge, sandstorm, debris flow, etc., can destroy the source of drinking water, destroy the water supply pipeline, water supply facilities and water works. The supply of drinking water in line with the health and safety requirements cannot be supplied during the period of the disaster and the post-disaster period, resulting in significant suffering and loss of human life and property. Therefore, in order to prevent the unsafe problems of urban water supply caused by extreme weather and emergency, and to guarantee the safe and sustainable development of urban water supply in our country, on the basis of summing up the domestic and foreign research status, this paper puts forward the theoretical foundation of urban water supply emergency early warning. The supply and demand water forecast technology, the emergency early warning technology, the emergency dispatch model and the emergency management system of the urban dry season are constructed, and the construction and practical application of the urban water supply emergency early warning model of Anyang City are analyzed and discussed in Anyang City as an example. The main achievements include the following: (1) The early warning and emergency dispatching theory base of urban water supply forecast are expounded in this paper. The paper introduces the method of urban water supply forecast, the classification and classification of urban water supply emergency, the composition of emergency early warning, the level of early warning and the distribution of information, and gives the emergency plan and emergency dispatching measures for urban water supply. application of water and demand in the dry season of the city Based on the characteristics of the dry season run-off in China, the pre-warning technology is based on BP neural network. Based on the groundwater numerical simulation model, the groundwater exploitation forecast model, the dry season water demand analysis forecast model and the urban dry season supply and demand water forecast model based on the water equilibrium equation are presented based on the groundwater numerical simulation model, and the urban water supply safety early warning technology is put forward, including the classification of the early warning level. Research on approval authority, release process, early warning index and early warning standard (reservoir, underground water source, etc.) Methods and techniques. (3) Rules-based urban water supply Based on the network diagram of the urban water supply emergency dispatch network, the emergency dispatch model technology has set up a rule-based emergency dispatch model for urban water supply, that is, in strict compliance with a series of pre-given On the basis of system operation rules, as much as possible to ensure the safety of water supply or the minimum impact, according to the priority utilization sequence of the urban water supply water source and the priority of the water users to meet the order, adopt the "The priority water source is first distributed, and the priority users are first satisfied." dispatching mode, set the water diversion parameters of the project, the operation rules of the reservoir dispatching and the utilization of the underground water The hydrological compensation existing in multi-source, multi-user and multi-project urban water supply system can be quickly solved by daily adjustment and calculation of urban water supply emergency dispatching, such as rules, water source conversion parameters, water source utilization limits, water demand, etc. The problem of complex adjustment and calculation, such as action, engineering compensation, emergency water source utilization and scheduling, and timely access to urban water supply Emergency dispatching plan for safety. (4) City water supply safety The whole-emergency early-warning and emergency management system is based on the existing database, using the forecast, early warning and emergency dispatch model established in this paper, adopting the object-oriented design concept, and developing the city The emergency early warning and dispatching system for water supply safety realizes the functions of data management (information service), plan management, supply and demand water situation forecast, emergency early warning (alarm), emergency dispatching and the like, and is the water supply The decision-making platform is provided for safety emergency management. (5) It is built According to the characteristics of the water supply in Anyang city, the early-warning theory, the early-warning technology, the early-warning model and the management system presented in this paper are used, and the early-warning standard and the early-warning result are given, and on this basis, the early-warning standard and the early-warning result are given. the events are respectively set with different scenarios for analysis,
【學位授予單位】：中國水利水電科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU991
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