【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的背景下,發(fā)展現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)已經(jīng)成為提升一個城市綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)競爭能力的有效手段,物流園區(qū)作為現(xiàn)代物流系統(tǒng)的重要節(jié)點(diǎn),對于提高物流的組織化水平和集約化程度發(fā)展具有重要意義。近幾年,菏澤市物流業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展,對其物流的處理能力也提出了嚴(yán)峻要求,菏澤《十二五規(guī)劃》也提出要大力發(fā)展物流載體。本文結(jié)合菏澤市實(shí)際,對菏澤市物流園區(qū)的需求量預(yù)測和布局規(guī)劃進(jìn)行了深入的研究。 首先,本文對菏澤物流園區(qū)的需求量進(jìn)行了分析,在國內(nèi)外物流園區(qū)需求量預(yù)測研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,先運(yùn)用了單一模型對其貨運(yùn)吞吐量進(jìn)行預(yù)測,得到了基于灰色預(yù)測模型、回歸預(yù)測模型和指數(shù)平滑模型的預(yù)測值,然后提出了利用基于遺傳算法的組合預(yù)測模型,得到個單一模型的權(quán)重系數(shù),得到了相對誤差較小的組合預(yù)測值,接著對集裝箱量以及糧食等物流生產(chǎn)資料進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,為判斷菏澤物流園區(qū)對市場的處理能力和后續(xù)的功能區(qū)面積確定和布局規(guī)劃提供了依據(jù)。 其次,本文對菏澤地區(qū)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的SWOT分析,確定了菏澤物流園區(qū)的類型、功能區(qū)定位及發(fā)展方向。并根據(jù)求得的菏澤市未來物流需求預(yù)測量,對其功能區(qū)的模塊和面積進(jìn)行了測算。接著運(yùn)用SLP布局規(guī)劃方法,對各功能區(qū)間的物流關(guān)系和非物流關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析。繪制了位置相關(guān)圖,得到了備選布局方案。 最后,本文在基于德爾菲法對各方案的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行確定的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用熵權(quán)法,對備選布局方案進(jìn)行了評價(jià),通過計(jì)算各備選布局方案的權(quán)值,得出最優(yōu)布局方案。并在其后繪制了菏澤物流園區(qū)規(guī)劃建設(shè)布局圖。接著分析了菏澤物流園區(qū)的運(yùn)營模式,并總結(jié)了本文研究的成果和不足。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, the development of modern logistics industry has become an effective means to enhance the competitiveness of a city's comprehensive economy. Logistics park as an important node of modern logistics system, It is of great significance to improve the level of organization and intensive development of logistics. In recent years, with the rapid development of the logistics industry in Heze City, the handling capacity of its logistics has also been put forward with severe requirements. The 12th five-year Plan of Heze has also proposed that the logistics carrier should be developed vigorously. In this paper, the demand forecast and layout planning of the logistics park in Heze city are studied in depth according to the actual situation of Heze city. First of all, this paper analyzes the demand of Heze logistics park. On the basis of the current situation of domestic and foreign logistics park demand forecasting, the single model is used to forecast the freight throughput, and the grey forecasting model is obtained. Then the combination prediction model based on genetic algorithm is proposed to obtain the weight coefficient of a single model, and the combination prediction value with smaller relative error is obtained, which is based on the combination prediction model of regression prediction model and exponential smoothing model, and the combination prediction model based on genetic algorithm is proposed in this paper. Then the volume of containers and the logistics production materials such as grain are forecasted, which provides the basis for judging the processing ability of Heze logistics park to the market and the following functional area determination and layout planning. Secondly, this paper has carried on the detailed SWOT analysis to the Heze area present situation, has determined the Heze logistics park type, the functional area localization and the development direction. According to the future logistics demand pre-measurement of Heze City, the module and area of the functional area are calculated. Then the SLP layout planning method is used to analyze the relationship between logistics and non-logistics in each functional area. The location correlation diagram is drawn and the alternative layout scheme is obtained. Finally, based on Delphi method, this paper evaluates the alternative layout scheme by entropy method, and obtains the optimal layout scheme by calculating the weights of each alternative layout scheme. After that, the layout of Heze logistics park planning and construction is drawn. Then it analyzes the operation mode of Heze logistics park, and summarizes the achievements and shortcomings of this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU984.13

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