發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-17 08:22

  本文選題：城市安全　切入點(diǎn)：無偏灰色模型　出處：《清華大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)》2014年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：為有效配置資源及保障城市安全,利用改進(jìn)無偏灰色模型計(jì)算城市燃?xì)夤饬俊＝o偏灰色預(yù)測模型,用3點(diǎn)平滑法及等維新息對數(shù)據(jù)序列進(jìn)行處理,得到改進(jìn)無偏灰色預(yù)測模型。根據(jù)城市供氣量的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),分別由無偏灰色預(yù)測模型及改進(jìn)無偏灰色模型進(jìn)行擬合預(yù)測,并將所得供氣量與實(shí)際供氣量進(jìn)行比較。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明:無偏灰色模型所得預(yù)測曲線為單調(diào)遞減函數(shù),隨著預(yù)測時(shí)間增加預(yù)測值和實(shí)際供氣量偏差較大;改進(jìn)無偏灰色模型能夠改變無偏灰色模型的單調(diào)性,預(yù)測值和實(shí)際供氣量比較接近,可用于中長期預(yù)測。無偏灰色模型和改進(jìn)無偏灰色模型預(yù)測所得燃?xì)夤饬康南鄬φ`差均值分別為7.32%和5.76%。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively allocate resources and ensure city safety, the improved unbiased grey model is used to calculate urban gas supply. An unbiased grey prediction model is established, and the data sequence is processed by using 3-point smoothing method and equal-dimensional innovation. According to the statistical data of urban gas supply, the unbiased grey forecasting model and the improved unbiased grey model are used to fit and forecast, respectively. The calculated results show that the prediction curve obtained by the unbiased grey model is a monotone decreasing function, and the deviation between the predicted value and the actual gas supply is larger with the increase of prediction time. The improved unbiased grey model can change the monotonicity of the unbiased grey model, and the predicted value is close to the actual gas supply. Unbiased grey model and improved unbiased grey model can be used to predict gas supply. The mean relative error of gas supply is 7.32% and 5.76, respectively.
【作者單位】： 清華大學(xué)工程物理系公共安全研究院;
【基金】：國家“十二五”科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2011BAK07B03)
【分類號】：TU996

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 朱蕓,樂秀t，

本文編號：1623919