【摘要】：草原生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是我國(guó)面積最大的陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng),具有不可替代的生態(tài)功能,是保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境的天然屏障。干旱災(zāi)害在我國(guó)具有頻率高、范圍涉及廣、損失嚴(yán)重的特點(diǎn),其對(duì)草原牧區(qū)畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)影響尤為嚴(yán)重。特別是近幾年,由于全球變暖態(tài)勢(shì)日益嚴(yán)峻,導(dǎo)致像特大干旱這樣的極端天氣氣候事件明顯增加,從而嚴(yán)重制約和影響牧區(qū)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的正常發(fā)展和牧民的正常生活。因此,進(jìn)行干旱災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,利于各級(jí)行政主管部門及生產(chǎn)部門掌握相關(guān)干旱信息,以便制定有效的防災(zāi)治災(zāi)措施,對(duì)減少干旱災(zāi)害損失和提高當(dāng)?shù)厣鐣?huì)效益、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益具有十分深遠(yuǎn)的意義。干旱災(zāi)害是內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)最主要的自然災(zāi)害,錫林郭勒盟是內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害多發(fā)的地區(qū),也是我國(guó)重要的畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)基地。因此本文以錫林郭勒盟地區(qū)為研究區(qū)域,根據(jù)自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)理論和干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成原理,從致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)性、承災(zāi)體的暴露性和脆弱性及防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力4個(gè)因子出發(fā),選取了12項(xiàng)指標(biāo)。運(yùn)用自然地理學(xué)、災(zāi)害科學(xué)、氣象及氣候?qū)W等多學(xué)科的理論和方法,結(jié)合自然災(zāi)害指數(shù)法、加權(quán)綜合評(píng)價(jià)法、層次分析法建立該區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型。運(yùn)用BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,在GIS技術(shù)的支持下,生成錫林郭勒盟干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖譜,并對(duì)該地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果顯示:錫林郭勒盟草原干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)危險(xiǎn)性指數(shù)總體上是由西北向東南遞減,危險(xiǎn)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呈減少趨勢(shì)。脆弱性指數(shù)整體上呈由北向南遞減的趨勢(shì),脆弱性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也減小。暴露性指數(shù)空間分布則呈現(xiàn)由東向西指數(shù)遞減的趨勢(shì),暴露性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)減小。防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力在研究區(qū)內(nèi)各旗縣存在明顯的差異性,大致在全盟呈現(xiàn)由四周向中間遞減,有由北向南遞增的趨勢(shì)。錫林郭勒盟干旱災(zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分區(qū)中,東烏珠穆沁旗、阿巴嘎旗是極高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū),蘇尼特左旗、蘇尼特右旗、西烏珠穆沁旗是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū),錫林浩特市、太仆寺旗是中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū),正鑲白旗和正藍(lán)旗則是低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū),二連浩特市和多倫縣是極低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。從空間上來(lái)看,草原干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呈從北向南,由東向西遞減的趨勢(shì)。根據(jù)BP網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果繪制錫林郭勒盟各縣旗市草原干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)年變化曲線,這與利用層次分析方法得到的錫林郭勒盟多年草原干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果基本吻合,從而驗(yàn)證錫林郭勒盟旱災(zāi)模型建立合理,得到的結(jié)論與現(xiàn)實(shí)較符合。
[Abstract]:Grassland ecosystem is the largest terrestrial ecosystem in China with irreplaceable ecological function and a natural barrier to protect ecological environment. Drought disaster has the characteristics of high frequency, wide range and serious loss in China, which has a serious impact on animal husbandry production in grassland and pastoral areas. Especially in recent years, due to the increasingly severe global warming situation, the extreme weather and climate events such as extreme drought have increased obviously, thus seriously restricting and affecting the normal development of social economy and the normal life of herdsmen in pastoral areas. Therefore, the risk analysis of drought disasters is beneficial to the administrative departments and production departments at all levels in mastering relevant drought information in order to formulate effective disaster prevention and control measures to reduce the losses of drought disasters and increase local social benefits. Economic benefit has very far-reaching significance. Drought disaster is the most important natural disaster in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, and Xilingol League is the region prone to drought disaster in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, and it is also an important animal husbandry production base in China. Therefore, this paper takes the Xilingol region as the research area, according to the theory of natural disaster risk assessment and the formation principle of drought disaster risk, from the hazard of disaster factors, Based on the four factors of exposure, vulnerability and ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, 12 indexes were selected. Based on the theories and methods of natural geography, disaster science, meteorology and climatology, combined with natural disaster index method, weighted comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the risk assessment model of drought disaster in this area is established. The BP artificial neural network is used to verify the model. With the support of GIS technology, the drought hazard risk map of Xilinguole League is generated, and the drought disaster risk in this area is analyzed. The results showed that the risk index of drought disaster decreased from northwest to southeast, and the risk decreased. The vulnerability index decreases from north to south, and the vulnerability risk decreases. The spatial distribution of exposure index decreased from east to west, and the exposure risk decreased. The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation is obviously different in each flag county in the study area, and it tends to decrease from four sides to the middle and increase gradually from north to south in the whole league. In the comprehensive risk zones of drought disasters in the Xilingol League, East Wuzhimuqin Banner, Abaga Banner is an extremely high risk area, Sunita left Banner, Sunita right Banner, West Uzhoumuqin Banner is a high risk area, Xilinhaote City, Taibusi Banner is a medium risk area, Zhengxian White Banner and Zhenglan Banner are low risk areas, Erlianhaote City and Duolun County are very low risk areas. From the spatial point of view, the risk of grassland drought disaster decreases from north to south, from east to west. According to the forecast result of BP network model, the annual variation curve of drought disaster risk index of grassland in every county and city of Xilin Guolle League is drawn, which is basically consistent with the result of assessment of drought disaster risk of grassland in Xilinguole League for many years, which is obtained by using AHP method. It is proved that the drought model of Xilingol League is reasonable, and the conclusion is in accordance with the reality.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：S812.1

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本文編號(hào)：2405708