本文選題：華北平原　切入點：冬小麥　出處：《中國氣象科學研究院》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：本文基于華北平原52個臺站和322個臺站氣象數(shù)據(jù)與產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù),分析了不同臺站密度數(shù)據(jù)對冬小麥全生育期內(nèi)的降水量、ET0及作物水分虧缺率時空變化特征的影響,并分析華北平原冬小麥生育期作物水分虧缺率的時空變化特征以及冬小麥干旱風險在華北平原的空間變化趨勢。在分析冬小麥水分虧缺率時,假設了無底墑、土壤相對濕度分別為45%、55%、65%、75%、85%六種底墑條件,分析底墑對冬小麥作物水分虧缺率時空變化的影響,并在此基礎(chǔ)上分析底墑對冬小麥干旱風險的影響。主要研究結(jié)果有:(1)采用52個臺站氣象資料在時間上可以獲取和322個臺站較為一致的冬小麥生育期水分變化特征,同時在大多數(shù)區(qū)域也可獲得較為一致的空間分布特征,但在地形起伏較大的山前平原以及山脈周圍區(qū)域。目前,利用基準臺站所進行的各種華北冬小麥水分時空分布特征分析基本可靠,但實際農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)決策時,所有華北山前平原及泰山附近區(qū)域的研究結(jié)果應當慎重對待、謹慎參考。(2)全華北平原冬小麥生育期內(nèi)降水量在1961-2010年有增加趨勢,且增加趨勢較為明顯。生長季內(nèi)降水量的增加,可以有效降低冬小麥水分虧缺程度和干旱發(fā)生風險。(3)華北平原冬小麥生育期內(nèi)ET0在1961-2010年間大部分區(qū)域有逐漸減少的趨勢,只有平原東北部的河北東北部、北京、天津等地區(qū)、山東東北部、河南南部及西部的部分區(qū)域參考作物蒸散ET0有所增加。(4)華北平原冬小麥生育期作物水分虧缺率隨時間的變化趨勢不明顯,空間上呈緯向分布,作物水分虧缺率隨著緯度的增加而增大,且底墑明顯降低了冬小麥的水分虧缺率,當土壤相對濕度達到75%以上時水分虧缺情況與底墑充足時的差異較小。(5)危險度呈緯向分布,隨著緯度的增加而增加,且隨著底墑的增加冬小麥干旱的危險性明顯降低。當土壤相對濕度達到75%以上時,冬小麥干旱主要是由于生育期內(nèi)水分異常偏少造成的,降低干旱的風險應在生育期內(nèi)降水偏少的時段及時澆水;當土壤相對濕度為45%時,河北省大部分區(qū)域、京津地區(qū)、山東西北部危險度較高,由于底墑的不足可能造成大面積干旱。(6)底墑對冬小麥作物水分虧缺率以及干旱危險性的影響表明,土壤底墑是冬小麥生育期內(nèi)不可忽略的水分來源,不考慮底墑會較大程度的夸大水分虧缺狀況以及干旱的危險性,這將給干旱的預防工作帶來不實的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on meteorological data and yield data of 52 stations and 322 stations in North China Plain, the effects of different station density data on the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation et 0 and crop water deficit rate during the whole growth period of winter wheat were analyzed. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of crop water deficit rate in North China Plain and the spatial variation trend of winter wheat drought risk in North China Plain were analyzed. The soil relative humidity was 45 ~ 55 and 65%, respectively. The effect of soil moisture on the temporal and spatial variation of crop water deficit rate of winter wheat was analyzed. On this basis, the effects of soil moisture on drought risk of winter wheat were analyzed. The main results are: 1) using meteorological data of 52 stations can obtain the variation characteristics of water in winter wheat growing period in time consistent with 322 stations. At the same time, a more consistent spatial distribution can be obtained in most regions, but in the mountainous plains and surrounding mountain areas, where the terrain is quite undulating. The analysis of water temporal and spatial distribution of winter wheat in North China by using the reference station is basically reliable. However, in the actual agricultural production decision, all the research results of the North China Piedmont Plain and the area near Mount Tai should be treated with caution. The precipitation of winter wheat in the growth period of North China Plain increased in 1961-2010, and the increasing trend was obvious. It can effectively reduce the water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat.) during the growing period of winter wheat in North China Plain, the ET0 decreased gradually in most areas during 1961-2010, only in northeast Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin and so on. The evapotranspiration (ET0) of some reference crops in northeast Shandong, southern Henan and western Henan increased. 4) the crop water deficit rate in winter wheat growing period in North China Plain was not obvious change with time, but the spatial distribution was zonal. The water deficit rate of crops increased with the increase of latitude, and the water deficit rate of winter wheat was obviously reduced by soil moisture. When the soil relative humidity was above 75%, the difference between soil water deficit and soil moisture abundance was smaller. With the increase of latitude and the increase of soil moisture, the drought risk of winter wheat decreased obviously. When the relative humidity of soil reached more than 75%, the drought of winter wheat was mainly caused by the lack of water in the growth period. To reduce the risk of drought, water should be watered in time when the precipitation is relatively low during the growing period. When the soil relative humidity is 45%, the risk is higher in most regions of Hebei Province, Beijing and Tianjin areas, and northwest Shandong. The effects of soil moisture on the water deficit rate and drought risk of winter wheat crops indicated that the soil moisture content in the soil was a water source that could not be ignored during the growing period of winter wheat. Not considering the soil moisture will greatly exaggerate the situation of water deficit and the danger of drought, which will bring false basis to the prevention of drought.
【學位授予單位】：中國氣象科學研究院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：S512.11;S423

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 王素艷,霍治國,李世奎,薛昌穎,毛飛;中國北方冬小麥的水分虧缺與氣候生產(chǎn)潛力——近40年來的動態(tài)變化研究[J];自然災害學報;2003年01期

2 劉庚山,郭安紅,安順清,呂厚荃,白月明,溫民;底墑對小麥根冠生長及土壤水分利用的影響[J];自然災害學報;2003年03期

，

本文編號：1575330