本文關(guān)鍵詞： 資源環(huán)境 泰州市 人口承載力 耕地保有量　出處：《地理與地理信息科學(xué)》2016年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：以泰州市為例,利用灰色系統(tǒng)模型和ARIMA模型,分別從土地資源、水資源及環(huán)境負(fù)荷角度對(duì)泰州市人口承載力進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)和預(yù)測(cè),并根據(jù)"木桶原理",確定泰州市資源環(huán)境的最大人口承載規(guī)模,最終測(cè)算規(guī)劃期內(nèi)的最低耕地保有量。研究結(jié)果表明:泰州市糧食生產(chǎn)與水資源供給充足,土地資源、水資源不會(huì)限制人口增長(zhǎng),環(huán)境負(fù)荷將是未來人口增長(zhǎng)最主要的制約因素;在保證資源環(huán)境均不超載的情況下,泰州市2020年最大人口規(guī)模541.61萬(wàn)人,2030年567.00萬(wàn)人;基于最大人口規(guī)模的最低耕地保有量2020年26.19萬(wàn)hm2,2030年28.26萬(wàn)hm2,均低于規(guī)劃耕地保有量,表明泰州市糧食供給已達(dá)到自給水平。該文揭示了影響泰州市資源環(huán)境人口承載能力的短板與制約要素,確定了基于糧食安全的耕地資源最低警戒規(guī)模,為泰州市耕地資源保護(hù)與合理利用提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Taking Taizhou city as an example, using grey system model and ARIMA model, the population carrying capacity of Taizhou city is evaluated and forecasted from the angle of land resources, water resources and environmental load, respectively. According to the "wooden bucket principle", the maximum population carrying scale of Taizhou city's resources and environment is determined, and the minimum cultivated land quantity in the planning period is finally calculated. The results show that the grain production and water resources in Taizhou are sufficient and the land resources are sufficient. Water resources will not limit population growth, and environmental load will be the main restriction factor of population growth in the future. Under the condition that resources and environment are not overloaded, the largest population scale in Taizhou is five million four hundred and sixteen thousand and one hundred in 2020 and 5.67 million in 2030. The minimum cultivated land holdings based on the maximum population size were 261,900 hm2in 2020 and 282,600 hm2in 2030, all of which were lower than the planned cultivated land holdings. The results show that the grain supply in Taizhou has reached the self-sufficiency level. This paper reveals the short board and restriction factors that affect the carrying capacity of the population of resources and environment in Taizhou, and determines the minimum alert scale of cultivated land resources based on food security. It provides scientific basis for the protection and rational utilization of cultivated land resources in Taizhou City.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)院流域地理學(xué)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室中國(guó)科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所;泰州市國(guó)土資源局;南京大學(xué)地理與海洋科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F323.211

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