【摘要】：為研究尾礦庫潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的演化過程,有效預(yù)防潰壩事故,從生命周期視角,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)(SD)理論建立尾礦庫勘察設(shè)計(jì)、建造以及運(yùn)行階段的潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)流圖;結(jié)合尾礦庫案例進(jìn)行應(yīng)用分析,揭示該尾礦庫生命周期潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)演化特征;并探討企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警值、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投入方案對(duì)尾礦庫潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平的影響。研究表明:隨著時(shí)間的推移,尾礦庫總體潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷增加;勘察設(shè)計(jì)階段,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量在第40~55個(gè)月之間線性增長,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)速率變化曲線呈拋物線型;建造階段,潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量出現(xiàn)臺(tái)階式的增長;運(yùn)行階段潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量波浪式上升,并在第60月達(dá)到最大值;企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警值的改變對(duì)尾礦庫潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平預(yù)測有顯著影響;勘察設(shè)計(jì)階段增加風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理投入,有助于降低和控制尾礦庫潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:In order to study the evolution process of tailing dam break risk and prevent dam break accident effectively, from the point of view of life cycle, using the (SD) theory of system dynamics, the risk flow chart of tailing dam failure in the stages of investigation, design, construction and operation is established. Based on the application analysis of tailing reservoir case, the dynamic evolution characteristics of dam break risk in the tailing reservoir life cycle are revealed, and the influence of enterprise risk early warning value and risk investment scheme on the risk level of tailing dam break is discussed. The results show that the overall dam break risk of tailings reservoir increases with time, the risk increases linearly between the 40th and the 55th month in the survey and design stage, and the change curve of the risk rate is parabola. The number of dam-break risk increased step by step, the wave of dam-break risk increased in operation stage, and reached the maximum in 60th month, the change of enterprise risk warning value had significant influence on the prediction of dam break risk level of tailings reservoir. Increasing investment in risk management is helpful to reduce and control the risk of tailing dam break.
【作者單位】： 山東工商學(xué)院管理科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;北京石油化工學(xué)院安全工程學(xué)院;北京市安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù)研究院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助(51474151) 山東省自然科學(xué)基金資助(ZR2014GQ015,ZR2012GM003) 山東工商學(xué)院博士啟動(dòng)基金資助(BS201710)
【分類號(hào)】：TD926.4

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