【摘要】：2015年中央經(jīng)濟工作會議提出將“去產(chǎn)能”作為重要任務。在產(chǎn)能過剩問題中,我國煤炭供需形勢嚴峻,產(chǎn)能過剩嚴重,制約了我國經(jīng)濟的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展。煤炭行業(yè)也是受宏觀經(jīng)濟影響較大的典型周期性行業(yè),在國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟下行大環(huán)境下,煤炭行業(yè)受現(xiàn)階段“去產(chǎn)能”、供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革等政策影響以外,我國能源結(jié)構(gòu)清潔化、低碳化趨勢等生態(tài)環(huán)境也制約著其發(fā)展。煤炭企業(yè)面臨淘汰落后產(chǎn)能,減少煤礦數(shù)量,化解煤炭行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩,平衡市場供需,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),轉(zhuǎn)型升級等一系列挑戰(zhàn),導致其當前面臨的風險日益加劇。如果缺乏風險防范,財務危機便會接踵而至。合理的財務預警可以及時有效的預測財務危機,以便企業(yè)采取相應的防范和應對措施,避免財務風險進一步惡化,最大限度減少風險因素帶來的不利影響,促進企業(yè)良好、可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文通過對國內(nèi)外財務預警文獻梳理與分析,以煤炭上市公司——靖遠煤電為例,通過分析其目前經(jīng)營情況和財務狀況,以及當前公司預警現(xiàn)狀和面臨的風險,并依據(jù)煤炭企業(yè)專有的行業(yè)特征與其自身財務特性,從償債風險預警、現(xiàn)金流量預警、資產(chǎn)管理風險預警、成長風險預警、煤炭行業(yè)特色風險預警、收入成本風險預警和資產(chǎn)權(quán)益報酬風險預警等七個方面以現(xiàn)金流量為基礎(chǔ),選取相應的財務預警指標,運用層次分析法確定所選財務指標權(quán)重,并向靖遠煤電公司管理層及相關(guān)財務人員發(fā)放調(diào)查問卷進行隸屬度的測定,通過運用模糊綜合評價法,將定性指標和定量指標有機結(jié)合,構(gòu)建現(xiàn)金流視角下靖遠煤電財務預警指標評價體系,并將其運用于靖遠煤電公司,檢驗其財務風險預警現(xiàn)狀并判定警情的嚴重程度;另一方面,將非財務指標融入財務預警指標評價體系中,構(gòu)建非財務指標預警體系,運用管理評分法,對公司非財務指標進行分析。通過對財務指標和非財務指標預警的綜合分析,進行有效的財務風險預警,并提出相應防警和排警措施,以降低企業(yè)財務風險。
[Abstract]:In 2015, the Central Economic work Conference put forward to "deproductivity" as an important task. In the problem of overcapacity, the situation of coal supply and demand in China is severe and the overcapacity is serious, which restricts the development of our economy. The coal industry is also a typical cyclical industry affected by macroeconomics. In the downward economic environment at home and abroad, the coal industry is affected by policies such as "deproductivity" and supply-side structural reform at the present stage, and the energy structure of our country is clean. Low carbonization trend and other ecological environment also restrict its development. Coal enterprises are faced with a series of challenges, such as eliminating backward production capacity, reducing the number of coal mines, resolving overcapacity in coal industry, balancing market supply and demand, optimizing industrial structure, transforming and upgrading. In the absence of risk prevention, the financial crisis will follow. Reasonable financial early warning can predict financial crisis in a timely and effective manner, so that enterprises can take corresponding precautions and countermeasures, avoid further deterioration of financial risks, minimize the adverse effects of risk factors, and promote the good of enterprises. Sustainable development In this paper, by combing and analyzing the domestic and foreign financial early-warning documents, taking Jingyuan Coal Power Company, a coal listed company, as an example, this paper analyzes its current operating situation and financial situation, as well as the current situation and risks faced by the company's early warning. And according to the specific industry characteristics of coal enterprises and their own financial characteristics, from debt risk early warning, cash flow early warning, asset management risk warning, growth risk warning, coal industry characteristic risk early warning, On the basis of cash flow, the paper selects the corresponding financial early-warning index and uses AHP to determine the weight of the selected financial index, which is based on the income cost risk early warning and asset equity reward risk early warning. And to Jingyuan Coal and Power Company management and related financial personnel issued questionnaires to determine the membership degree, through the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the qualitative and quantitative indicators are organically combined. Build Jingyuan coal and electricity financial early warning index evaluation system under the perspective of cash flow, and apply it to Jingyuan coal and power company to test its financial risk warning status and judge the severity of warning; on the other hand, The non-financial index is integrated into the financial early-warning index evaluation system, and the non-financial index early-warning system is constructed, and the non-financial index of the company is analyzed by using the management scoring method. Based on the comprehensive analysis of financial index and non-financial index early warning, this paper carries out effective financial risk early warning, and puts forward corresponding measures to prevent and eliminate the financial risk in order to reduce the financial risk of enterprises.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F406.7;F426.21

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