【摘要】：針對礦井涌水量計(jì)算過程中存在不確定性的問題,從區(qū)間不確定性角度出發(fā),基于非概率集合理論,推導(dǎo)出了采用經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式計(jì)算影響半徑和根據(jù)觀測資料給出影響半徑這兩種情況下承壓-無壓水涌水量區(qū)間解析表達(dá)式,定量刻畫了參數(shù)的區(qū)間不確定性下涌水量的區(qū)間響應(yīng),實(shí)現(xiàn)了從確定型計(jì)算公式到區(qū)間不確定性型計(jì)算公式的轉(zhuǎn)變。通過對比蒙特卡洛法得到的實(shí)際區(qū)間上下限和推導(dǎo)出公式計(jì)算的上下限,分別給出了兩個(gè)區(qū)間涌水量預(yù)測公式計(jì)算結(jié)果相對誤差的絕對值控制在5%和10%以內(nèi)時(shí),相應(yīng)變量的允許變化率,分析結(jié)果表明:公式一計(jì)算最大(最小)涌水量的相對誤差為5%和10%時(shí),變量的允許變化率分別為0.18(0.08)和0.28(0.12);公式二計(jì)算最大(最小)涌水量的相對誤差為5%和10%時(shí),變量的允許變化率分別為0.08(0.05)和0.12(0.08);在相同誤差要求下,兩個(gè)公式計(jì)算最大值時(shí)的允許變化率高于最小值時(shí)的允許變化率,這對計(jì)算礦井涌水量的上限有利。這為礦井涌水量計(jì)算提供了一條新的途徑。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of uncertainty in the calculation of mine discharge, from the angle of interval uncertainty, based on the theory of non-probabilistic set, In this paper, the analytical expression of the interval of pressure-free water inflow under the condition of calculating the influence radius by empirical formula and the influence radius according to the observation data is derived, and the interval response of the water inflow under the interval uncertainty of parameters is quantitatively described. The transformation from deterministic formula to interval uncertainty formula is realized. By comparing the upper and lower limits of the actual interval obtained by the Monte Carlo method and deducing the upper and lower limits of the formula, the absolute values of the relative errors of the calculation results of the two interval water inrush prediction formulas are given respectively when the absolute values are controlled within 5% and 10%, respectively. The results show that the relative error of formula one is 5% and 10% for the maximum (minimum) inflow of water. The allowable variation rates of variables are 0.18 (0.08) and 0.28 (0.12), respectively, and the allowable rates of variation are 0.08 (0.05) and 0.12 (0.08) when the relative error of the maximum (minimum) discharge is 5% and 10%, respectively. The allowable rate of change when the maximum value is calculated by the two formulas is higher than that at the minimum value, which is beneficial to the calculation of the upper limit of mine water discharge. This provides a new way for the calculation of mine discharge.
【作者單位】： 中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)資源與地球科學(xué)學(xué)院;江蘇師范大學(xué)地理測繪與城鄉(xiāng)規(guī)劃學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41202179) 江蘇省高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程資助項(xiàng)目
【分類號】：P641.4

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