考慮誘增交通量的四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-18 15:08
【摘要】：新建或擴(kuò)建道路是解決道路交通擁擠的方法之一,它可以提高道路通行能力,但由于新建或擴(kuò)建道路在一定時(shí)間后又會(huì)產(chǎn)生新的交通需求(誘增交通量),從而導(dǎo)致新的交通擁擠。因此,在進(jìn)行交通需求預(yù)測(cè)時(shí),必須充分考慮新建或擴(kuò)建道路所產(chǎn)生的誘增交通量,制定具有較好前瞻性的道路交通規(guī)劃,以滿足未來(lái)的道路交通需求。 本文旨在建立考慮誘增交通量的四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型,主要研究工作包括如下三方面： (1)誘增交通量概念、產(chǎn)生機(jī)理與彈性系數(shù)模型研究。本文系統(tǒng)整理了國(guó)內(nèi)外誘增交通量的有關(guān)研究成果,明確了誘增交通量的概念與產(chǎn)生機(jī)理,并在收集我國(guó)車出行公里數(shù)及其影響因素(人口、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、公路里程等)有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用彈性系數(shù)模型(基礎(chǔ)彈性系數(shù)模型和先進(jìn)彈性系數(shù)模型)分析了我國(guó)誘增交通量的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況。研究結(jié)果表明：全國(guó)車出行公里數(shù)與公路里程之間的短期(一年)彈性系數(shù)為0.026～0.274；長(zhǎng)期(兩年及兩年以上)彈性系數(shù)為0.367～0.773,說(shuō)明我國(guó)新建或擴(kuò)建道路在一定時(shí)間后確實(shí)存在誘增交通量,短期誘增交通量產(chǎn)生較少,長(zhǎng)期誘增交通量將顯著增加。 (2)通過(guò)在傳統(tǒng)四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型中引入“可達(dá)性”,構(gòu)建了具有反饋構(gòu)造的考慮誘增交通量的四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型。該模型一方面運(yùn)用反饋構(gòu)造可以解決傳統(tǒng)四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型中存在的各階段出行時(shí)間不一致性問(wèn)題,另一方面在模型中“可達(dá)性”的引入考慮由于新建或擴(kuò)建道路提高路網(wǎng)可達(dá)性后對(duì)未來(lái)交通量的影響,解決傳統(tǒng)四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型中忽略誘增交通量影響的問(wèn)題。 (3)基于具有反饋構(gòu)造的考慮誘增交通量的四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型建立和參數(shù)標(biāo)定(如道路阻抗函數(shù)建立),運(yùn)用TransCAD交通規(guī)劃軟件將此模型實(shí)現(xiàn),并選擇大連市道路網(wǎng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。首先通過(guò)該模型和傳統(tǒng)四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型結(jié)果對(duì)比,證實(shí)考慮誘增交通量的四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型可以準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)交通量,符合現(xiàn)實(shí)情況。其次應(yīng)用該模型對(duì)大連市區(qū)1994年和2010年道路交通量進(jìn)行計(jì)算,發(fā)現(xiàn)1994年-2010年間大連市區(qū)產(chǎn)生的道路誘增交通量占2010年道路總交通量的9.7%。最后依據(jù)2010年道路網(wǎng)預(yù)測(cè)大連市區(qū)2020年的交通需求情況,獲得未來(lái)道路交通量的分配情況。 綜上所述,本文提出的具有反饋構(gòu)造的考慮誘增交通量的四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型,不僅可以預(yù)測(cè)由于新建或擴(kuò)建道路提高路網(wǎng)可達(dá)性而產(chǎn)生的誘增交通量,還可以改進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)四階段交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型的預(yù)測(cè)精度,為制定滿足未來(lái)交通需求的交通規(guī)劃提供較為準(zhǔn)確的交通量預(yù)測(cè)值。
[Abstract]:The new or expanded road is one of the methods to solve the road traffic congestion, which can improve the road traffic capacity, but new traffic demand (induced traffic volume) will be generated after a certain period of time due to the construction or expansion of the road, resulting in new traffic congestion. Therefore, in carrying out the traffic demand forecast, the induced traffic volume generated by the newly-built or expanded road must be fully considered, and a better forward-looking road traffic plan should be developed to meet the road traffic demand in the future. The purpose of this paper is to establish a four-stage traffic demand forecast model considering the induced traffic volume. The main research work includes the following three parties: Surface: (1) the concept of induced traffic volume, the mechanism and the modulus of elasticity In this paper, the research results of the induced traffic volume at home and abroad are finished, the concept and the mechanism of the induced traffic volume are clarified, and the data of the number of vehicle trips and its influencing factors (population, gross domestic product, road mileage, etc.) in China are collected. On the base of using the elastic coefficient model (the base coefficient model and the advanced elastic coefficient model), the present situation of the induced traffic volume in China is analyzed. The results show that the short-term (one year) elastic coefficient between the number of travel kilometers and the road mileage of the whole country is 0.026-0.274, the elastic coefficient of the long-term (two years and over two years) is 0.367-0.773, which indicates that the newly-built or expanded road in China does exist after a certain period of time. The traffic volume and the short-term induced traffic volume are less, and the long-term induced traffic volume will be displayed By introducing the "accessibility" in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, the four-stage traffic need to consider the induced traffic volume with the feedback structure is constructed. The model can be obtained by using the feedback structure on the one hand to solve the problem of the inconsistency of the travel time of each stage in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model. On the other hand, the introduction of the "accessibility" in the model takes into account the future intersection due to the improvement of the accessibility of the road network due to the newly-built or expanded road. The effect of flux is to solve the problem of ignoring the induced traffic volume in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model and (3) building and parameter calibration based on a four-stage traffic demand forecast model with a feedback configuration (e.g., establishing a road impedance function), realizing the model by using the TransCAD traffic planning software, and selecting the Dalian road Based on the comparison between the model and the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, it is proved that the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model considering the induced traffic volume can accurately predict the traffic volume. This model is used to calculate the traffic volume of Dalian district in 1994 and 2010, and it is found that the road-induced traffic volume from the Dalian area in 1994-2010 accounts for the total road traffic of 2010 9.7% of the flux. Finally, according to the 2010 road network, the traffic demand in Dalian area is predicted by 2020, and the future road will be obtained. To sum up, the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model with the feedback structure considering the induced traffic volume can not only predict the road network accessibility due to the new or expanded road and the forecast accuracy of the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model can be improved,
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.12
[Abstract]:The new or expanded road is one of the methods to solve the road traffic congestion, which can improve the road traffic capacity, but new traffic demand (induced traffic volume) will be generated after a certain period of time due to the construction or expansion of the road, resulting in new traffic congestion. Therefore, in carrying out the traffic demand forecast, the induced traffic volume generated by the newly-built or expanded road must be fully considered, and a better forward-looking road traffic plan should be developed to meet the road traffic demand in the future. The purpose of this paper is to establish a four-stage traffic demand forecast model considering the induced traffic volume. The main research work includes the following three parties: Surface: (1) the concept of induced traffic volume, the mechanism and the modulus of elasticity In this paper, the research results of the induced traffic volume at home and abroad are finished, the concept and the mechanism of the induced traffic volume are clarified, and the data of the number of vehicle trips and its influencing factors (population, gross domestic product, road mileage, etc.) in China are collected. On the base of using the elastic coefficient model (the base coefficient model and the advanced elastic coefficient model), the present situation of the induced traffic volume in China is analyzed. The results show that the short-term (one year) elastic coefficient between the number of travel kilometers and the road mileage of the whole country is 0.026-0.274, the elastic coefficient of the long-term (two years and over two years) is 0.367-0.773, which indicates that the newly-built or expanded road in China does exist after a certain period of time. The traffic volume and the short-term induced traffic volume are less, and the long-term induced traffic volume will be displayed By introducing the "accessibility" in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, the four-stage traffic need to consider the induced traffic volume with the feedback structure is constructed. The model can be obtained by using the feedback structure on the one hand to solve the problem of the inconsistency of the travel time of each stage in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model. On the other hand, the introduction of the "accessibility" in the model takes into account the future intersection due to the improvement of the accessibility of the road network due to the newly-built or expanded road. The effect of flux is to solve the problem of ignoring the induced traffic volume in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model and (3) building and parameter calibration based on a four-stage traffic demand forecast model with a feedback configuration (e.g., establishing a road impedance function), realizing the model by using the TransCAD traffic planning software, and selecting the Dalian road Based on the comparison between the model and the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, it is proved that the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model considering the induced traffic volume can accurately predict the traffic volume. This model is used to calculate the traffic volume of Dalian district in 1994 and 2010, and it is found that the road-induced traffic volume from the Dalian area in 1994-2010 accounts for the total road traffic of 2010 9.7% of the flux. Finally, according to the 2010 road network, the traffic demand in Dalian area is predicted by 2020, and the future road will be obtained. To sum up, the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model with the feedback structure considering the induced traffic volume can not only predict the road network accessibility due to the new or expanded road and the forecast accuracy of the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model can be improved,
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.12
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