基于可靠度理論的城市路網(wǎng)脆弱性評估方法研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-06 18:37
【摘要】：近年來，隨著自然災害、惡劣天氣以及重大交通事故等異常事件的頻繁發(fā)生，給城市道路交通運輸網(wǎng)絡的交通承載力和交通運行狀況帶來了極大的挑戰(zhàn)。城市的路網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)是城市的主體骨架同時也是城市運行的動脈，當路網(wǎng)中某一路段單元遭到自然條件或人為破壞時，會使路網(wǎng)的通行能力降低，因此將會對路網(wǎng)產(chǎn)生一定程度的影響，從而進一步對人們的生產(chǎn)等活動造成巨大損失。一般情況下，，交通運輸網(wǎng)絡脆弱性是指當路網(wǎng)遭受到一定概率且產(chǎn)生嚴重后果的事件破壞時，導致路網(wǎng)整體服務水平下降的敏感程度。由此可見，路網(wǎng)脆弱性研究對優(yōu)化城市路網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)以及提升城市道路服務水平具有重要的意義。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文的主要研究內(nèi)容如下： 在總結(jié)前人有關(guān)路網(wǎng)脆弱性研究的基礎(chǔ)上，首先明確了路網(wǎng)脆弱性的定義，即：路網(wǎng)的脆弱性是指路網(wǎng)脆弱單元的失效概率與其失效后對整體路網(wǎng)失效影響程度的綜合作用的結(jié)果。在此基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合行程時間可靠度與連通可靠度的概念構(gòu)建基于可靠度理論的路段單元失效概率模型；其次，以路段加權(quán)連接度、路段介數(shù)、路段飽和度為指標，并結(jié)合各個路段單元的失效概率，綜合篩選出所研究區(qū)域的城市路網(wǎng)中的脆弱路段單元；最后，分別刪除路網(wǎng)中的脆弱路段單元，將網(wǎng)絡效率、出行效率、出行成本作為脆弱路段單元刪除后對路網(wǎng)性能影響的量化評價指標，同時結(jié)合脆弱路段單元的失效概率，最終得到路網(wǎng)的脆弱強度判定結(jié)果，從而有效地對所研究區(qū)域城市道路交通運輸網(wǎng)絡的脆弱性進行科學判定。 本文在前人的基礎(chǔ)上確定了路網(wǎng)脆弱性概念，通過本文所采取的路網(wǎng)脆弱性判定方法能夠有效地克服以往單一評價方法所帶來的弊端，同時根據(jù)本文所提出識別路網(wǎng)中脆弱路段的方法能夠科學地篩選出脆弱路段單元，對路網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)特性能夠明確定位，從而對路網(wǎng)的規(guī)劃與管理以及提升城市道路服務能力具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the frequent occurrence of abnormal events such as natural disasters, bad weather and major traffic accidents, it has brought great challenges to the traffic carrying capacity and traffic operation of urban road transportation network. The structure of urban road network is not only the main skeleton of the city, but also the artery of urban operation. When a certain section of the road network is destroyed by natural conditions or man-made damage, the capacity of the road network will be reduced. Therefore, it will have a certain degree of impact on the road network, and further cause great losses to people's production and other activities. Generally speaking, the vulnerability of transportation network is the sensitive degree that leads to the decline of the overall service level of the road network when the road network suffers a certain probability and has a serious consequence of the destruction of the event. It can be seen that the study of road network vulnerability is of great significance for optimizing the structure of urban road network and improving the level of urban road service. On this basis, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: on the basis of summarizing the previous researches on road network vulnerability, the definition of road network vulnerability is defined. That is to say, the vulnerability of road network is the result of the comprehensive effect of the failure probability of the fragile elements of the road network and the degree of its failure on the overall network failure. On this basis, based on the concept of travel time reliability and connectivity reliability, the failure probability model of link element based on reliability theory is constructed. Secondly, taking the weighted connectivity, the number of road sections and the saturation of road sections as the index, combined with the failure probability of each section unit, the vulnerable section units in the urban road network of the studied area are comprehensively screened out. Finally, the fragile section unit in the road network is deleted, and the network efficiency and travel cost are taken as the quantitative evaluation index of the impact on the performance of the road network after the deletion of the fragile road section unit, and the failure probability of the fragile road section unit is combined at the same time. Finally, the fragile strength of the road network is determined, and the fragility of the urban road transportation network in the studied area is determined scientifically. In this paper, the concept of road network vulnerability is defined on the basis of predecessors. Through the road network vulnerability determination method adopted in this paper, the disadvantages brought by the previous single evaluation method can be effectively overcome. At the same time, according to the method proposed in this paper, vulnerable road sections can be selected scientifically, and the structural characteristics of the road network can be clearly located. Therefore, it is of great significance to the planning and management of road network and the promotion of urban road service capability.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U412.1;U491
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the frequent occurrence of abnormal events such as natural disasters, bad weather and major traffic accidents, it has brought great challenges to the traffic carrying capacity and traffic operation of urban road transportation network. The structure of urban road network is not only the main skeleton of the city, but also the artery of urban operation. When a certain section of the road network is destroyed by natural conditions or man-made damage, the capacity of the road network will be reduced. Therefore, it will have a certain degree of impact on the road network, and further cause great losses to people's production and other activities. Generally speaking, the vulnerability of transportation network is the sensitive degree that leads to the decline of the overall service level of the road network when the road network suffers a certain probability and has a serious consequence of the destruction of the event. It can be seen that the study of road network vulnerability is of great significance for optimizing the structure of urban road network and improving the level of urban road service. On this basis, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: on the basis of summarizing the previous researches on road network vulnerability, the definition of road network vulnerability is defined. That is to say, the vulnerability of road network is the result of the comprehensive effect of the failure probability of the fragile elements of the road network and the degree of its failure on the overall network failure. On this basis, based on the concept of travel time reliability and connectivity reliability, the failure probability model of link element based on reliability theory is constructed. Secondly, taking the weighted connectivity, the number of road sections and the saturation of road sections as the index, combined with the failure probability of each section unit, the vulnerable section units in the urban road network of the studied area are comprehensively screened out. Finally, the fragile section unit in the road network is deleted, and the network efficiency and travel cost are taken as the quantitative evaluation index of the impact on the performance of the road network after the deletion of the fragile road section unit, and the failure probability of the fragile road section unit is combined at the same time. Finally, the fragile strength of the road network is determined, and the fragility of the urban road transportation network in the studied area is determined scientifically. In this paper, the concept of road network vulnerability is defined on the basis of predecessors. Through the road network vulnerability determination method adopted in this paper, the disadvantages brought by the previous single evaluation method can be effectively overcome. At the same time, according to the method proposed in this paper, vulnerable road sections can be selected scientifically, and the structural characteristics of the road network can be clearly located. Therefore, it is of great significance to the planning and management of road network and the promotion of urban road service capability.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U412.1;U491
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 胡一z
本文編號：2470398
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