【摘要】：隨著我國改革開放不斷深入，人們客運和貨運需求不斷上升，對建成的高速公路的通行能力提出了更高的要求，考慮環(huán)境和成本費用等問題，盲目的擴建高速公路是不可取的，高速公路的建設(shè)應(yīng)該從一味的量增轉(zhuǎn)變到合理規(guī)劃、有效益的增長上來，這樣可以減少不必要的投資。因此就要求企業(yè)對原有建成的高速公路車流量進行準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測，把預(yù)測結(jié)果作為交通規(guī)劃決策的依據(jù)和企業(yè)未來收益預(yù)測的依據(jù)。 高速公路車流量的預(yù)測屬于一種長期車流量預(yù)測，而且容易受社會環(huán)境各方面的影響，，為了提升預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性，必須選擇一種對環(huán)境適應(yīng)性更強的預(yù)測模型。神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型不僅具有實行大規(guī)模的并行處理的優(yōu)點，可以在同時分析大量相關(guān)因素的情況下保證系統(tǒng)能以更快的速度輸出可靠結(jié)果，還具有非線性映射特性，這就大大增強了神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型適應(yīng)環(huán)境的能力。因此，運用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型可以對高速公路車流量進行比較準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測。 本文對現(xiàn)階段高速公路車流量預(yù)測方法進行了系統(tǒng)的梳理，總結(jié)不同預(yù)測模型存在的優(yōu)缺點，構(gòu)建了基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)高速公路車流量預(yù)測模型，結(jié)合高速公路車流量數(shù)據(jù)的特點，對高速公路車流量樣本數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理方法和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測模型的激勵函數(shù)進行了改進，確定了預(yù)測模型中各參數(shù)的初始值的方法，同時提出了新建或改擴建高速公路對預(yù)測項目影響的定量化方法，從而結(jié)合影響程度定量化的結(jié)果對神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的預(yù)測值進行改進，提高了預(yù)測結(jié)果的精度。 本文研究的主要結(jié)論有：第一，相比于其它預(yù)測模型，神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)擁有更多的優(yōu)勢，它可以融合定性和定量兩類數(shù)據(jù)，并且擁有很好的容錯性和魯棒性，能對非線性函數(shù)有很強的映射能力，最后保證系統(tǒng)的大規(guī)模并行處理能力，提高輸出結(jié)果的速度和準(zhǔn)確性。第二，BP網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計和各參數(shù)選取盡量避免模型自身的缺陷，并結(jié)合所要研究的預(yù)測項目特點進行細(xì)致的分析。第三，路網(wǎng)中如果有新建或者改建高速公路，就會改變原來的路網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)，對原有的高速公路就會產(chǎn)生很大的影響，轉(zhuǎn)移一部分原來公路上的車流量，這會使預(yù)測模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果出現(xiàn)偏差，因此為了增加預(yù)測結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性，必須對新建或改建高速公路的影響程度定量化進行相應(yīng)的研究。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's reform and opening-up and the increasing demand for passenger and freight transport, it is not advisable to expand the expressway blindly, considering the problems of environment and cost, and putting forward a higher demand for the capacity of the built highway. Highway construction should be transformed from volume increase to rational planning and effective growth, so that unnecessary investment can be reduced. Therefore, the enterprise is required to accurately predict the traffic volume of the original highway, and take the forecast result as the basis of traffic planning and decision-making and the basis of the future profit forecast of the enterprise. The prediction of expressway traffic flow is a kind of long-term traffic flow prediction, and it is easy to be affected by various aspects of social environment. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, it is necessary to choose a forecasting model which is more adaptable to the environment. The neural network model not only has the advantages of large-scale parallel processing, but also can ensure that the system can output reliable results faster, and it also has the characteristics of nonlinear mapping under the condition of analyzing a large number of related factors at the same time. This greatly enhances the ability of neural network model to adapt to the environment. Therefore, the neural network model can be used to predict the traffic volume of expressway accurately. This paper systematically combs the forecasting methods of expressway traffic flow at present, summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of different forecasting models, and constructs the forecasting model of expressway traffic flow based on BP neural network. Combined with the characteristics of expressway traffic data, the pretreatment method of sample data of expressway traffic flow and the excitation function of BP neural network prediction model are improved, and the initial values of each parameter in the prediction model are determined. At the same time, the method of quantifying the influence of newly built or expanded expressway on the forecast project is put forward, which improves the prediction value of the neural network model combined with the quantitative result of the influence degree, and improves the precision of the prediction result. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, compared with other prediction models, neural network has more advantages, it can integrate qualitative and quantitative data, and has good fault tolerance and robustness. It can map the nonlinear function strongly. Finally, it can guarantee the large-scale parallel processing ability of the system, and improve the speed and accuracy of the output results. Secondly, the structure design of BP network model and the selection of each parameter avoid the defects of the model itself as far as possible, and the characteristics of the prediction items to be studied are analyzed in detail. Third, if there are new or rebuilt highways in the road network, it will change the structure of the original road network, which will have a great impact on the original highway and transfer a part of the traffic flow on the original highway. Therefore, in order to increase the accuracy of the prediction results, it is necessary to make a quantitative study on the influence degree of the newly built or rebuilt highways in order to increase the accuracy of the prediction results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.14

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