山區(qū)高墩橋梁建設期風險評估
發(fā)布時間：2019-01-12 17:41
【摘要】：中國高速公路經(jīng)過本世紀第一個十年的高速發(fā)展,進入了新的發(fā)展階段。隨著東部沿海地區(qū)國家高速公路網(wǎng)絡建設基本成型,高速公路的建設轉入國家中西部地區(qū),進入山嶺重丘復雜的地形區(qū)域。為了跨越復雜地形地貌,山區(qū)高墩橋梁大量修建,由于山區(qū)特殊地形、地貌、水文、地質(zhì)、氣候條件,使得山區(qū)高墩橋梁施工難度大,建設周期長,現(xiàn)場隱患多。頻繁發(fā)生的山區(qū)高墩橋梁施工事故,造成了巨大的財產(chǎn)損失與人員傷亡,引起了國家相關部門的高度重視。本文圍繞山區(qū)高墩橋梁建設期間的風險評估開展研究,主要成果如下：1.研究了山區(qū)高墩橋梁建設期風險評估理論,探討了風險的概念、風險的相關特征以及風險評估的基本原理。2.通過對各種風險評估方法進行分析研究,探討了層次分析法、加速遺傳算法。針對層次分析法中判斷矩陣的一致性檢驗計算過程繁瑣復雜、遺傳算法中的早熟收斂、后期收斂速度慢及精度差等問題。本文提出了基于加速遺傳算法的層次分析法(AGA-AHP)計算風險層次模型中各風險因素重要性排序權值和檢驗判斷矩陣的一致性,以此為基礎,運用模糊數(shù)學理論形成一個基于不完整信息的多層次模糊綜合評價法,量化各風險因素的風險大小。結合三種方法的優(yōu)點,使整個風險評估過程更為客觀,最大減小風險評估系統(tǒng)中的人為主觀的影響,同時直觀表現(xiàn)各風險因素的重要程度,將相應的指標量化,讓評估結果明確。3.將層次分析法、加速遺傳算法、模糊綜合評價法三者結合起來的綜合風險評估方法實際應用于山區(qū)橋梁高墩建設期風險評估,以廈門至成都國家高速公路湖南境內(nèi)某特大橋為工程背景選取橋墩建設過程作為山區(qū)高墩橋梁建設期風險評估的專項示例,收集工程相關信息,分析工程潛在風險因素、進行風險識別,運用層次分析法建立風險層次模型,結合加速遺傳算法計算風險因素重要性權值wi及一致性檢驗,最后結合模糊理論劃分風險等級評價集,以重要性權值wi為基礎計算出各風險因素風險等級隸屬度P(i),最終確定該大橋高墩建設期的風險等級為“四等風險”。其風險評估結果證明該綜合評估方法能有效反映橋墩建設期間的各風險因素隸屬層次關系,正確評估高墩建設期間的風險狀態(tài),為后續(xù)風險決策提供了理論依據(jù)。同時也驗證了該評估方法的有效性與實用性,對山區(qū)高墩橋梁風險評估有著實用意義。
[Abstract]:After the rapid development in the first ten years of this century, the expressway in China has entered a new stage of development. With the formation of the national highway network in the eastern coastal areas, the highway construction has been transferred to the central and western regions of the country, and into the complex terrain area of the mountains and hills. In order to span the complex terrain and geomorphology, a large number of bridges with high piers are built in mountainous areas. Due to the special terrain, geomorphology, hydrology, geology and climate conditions, the construction of high pier bridges in mountainous areas is difficult, the construction period is long, and there are many hidden dangers on the spot. The frequent construction accidents of high-pier bridges in mountainous areas have caused huge property losses and casualties, which have aroused great attention of the relevant departments of the state. This paper focuses on the risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous areas. The main results are as follows: 1. This paper studies the theory of risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous area, discusses the concept of risk, the related characteristics of risk and the basic principle of risk assessment. 2. Through the analysis and research of various risk assessment methods, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is discussed to accelerate the genetic algorithm (GA). In order to solve the problems such as complicated calculation process of consistency checking of judgement matrix in AHP, premature convergence in genetic algorithm, slow convergence speed and poor precision in late stage, etc. In this paper, an accelerated genetic algorithm based Analytic hierarchy process (AGA-AHP) is proposed to calculate the consistency of the ranking weight and the test judgment matrix of the importance of each risk factor in the risk hierarchy model. A multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on incomplete information is formed by using fuzzy mathematics theory to quantify the risk of each risk factor. Combined with the advantages of the three methods, the whole process of risk assessment is more objective, and the human subjective influence in the risk assessment system is minimized. At the same time, the importance of each risk factor is intuitively represented, and the corresponding indicators are quantified. Make the assessment clear. 3. The comprehensive risk assessment method, which combines AHP, accelerated genetic algorithm and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, is applied to the risk assessment of high pier construction period of mountain bridges. Taking a large bridge in Hunan Province of Xiamen to Chengdu National Expressway as a background, the process of bridge pier construction is selected as a special example for risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous area, and relevant information is collected to analyze the potential risk factors of the project. Risk identification, using AHP to establish risk hierarchy model, combining with accelerated genetic algorithm to calculate the weight of risk factor wi and consistency test, finally combined with fuzzy theory to divide the risk rating evaluation set. Based on the importance weight value (wi), the risk grade membership degree of each risk factor is calculated. Finally, the risk grade of the high pier construction period of the bridge is determined to be "fourth grade risk" by P (i),. The result of risk assessment proves that the comprehensive evaluation method can effectively reflect the subordinate relationship of various risk factors during the construction of bridge piers, correctly evaluate the risk state during the construction of high piers, and provide a theoretical basis for subsequent risk decision-making. At the same time, the effectiveness and practicability of the evaluation method are verified, which is of practical significance to the risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous areas.
【學位授予單位】：長沙理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U445
本文編號：2408032
[Abstract]:After the rapid development in the first ten years of this century, the expressway in China has entered a new stage of development. With the formation of the national highway network in the eastern coastal areas, the highway construction has been transferred to the central and western regions of the country, and into the complex terrain area of the mountains and hills. In order to span the complex terrain and geomorphology, a large number of bridges with high piers are built in mountainous areas. Due to the special terrain, geomorphology, hydrology, geology and climate conditions, the construction of high pier bridges in mountainous areas is difficult, the construction period is long, and there are many hidden dangers on the spot. The frequent construction accidents of high-pier bridges in mountainous areas have caused huge property losses and casualties, which have aroused great attention of the relevant departments of the state. This paper focuses on the risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous areas. The main results are as follows: 1. This paper studies the theory of risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous area, discusses the concept of risk, the related characteristics of risk and the basic principle of risk assessment. 2. Through the analysis and research of various risk assessment methods, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is discussed to accelerate the genetic algorithm (GA). In order to solve the problems such as complicated calculation process of consistency checking of judgement matrix in AHP, premature convergence in genetic algorithm, slow convergence speed and poor precision in late stage, etc. In this paper, an accelerated genetic algorithm based Analytic hierarchy process (AGA-AHP) is proposed to calculate the consistency of the ranking weight and the test judgment matrix of the importance of each risk factor in the risk hierarchy model. A multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on incomplete information is formed by using fuzzy mathematics theory to quantify the risk of each risk factor. Combined with the advantages of the three methods, the whole process of risk assessment is more objective, and the human subjective influence in the risk assessment system is minimized. At the same time, the importance of each risk factor is intuitively represented, and the corresponding indicators are quantified. Make the assessment clear. 3. The comprehensive risk assessment method, which combines AHP, accelerated genetic algorithm and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, is applied to the risk assessment of high pier construction period of mountain bridges. Taking a large bridge in Hunan Province of Xiamen to Chengdu National Expressway as a background, the process of bridge pier construction is selected as a special example for risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous area, and relevant information is collected to analyze the potential risk factors of the project. Risk identification, using AHP to establish risk hierarchy model, combining with accelerated genetic algorithm to calculate the weight of risk factor wi and consistency test, finally combined with fuzzy theory to divide the risk rating evaluation set. Based on the importance weight value (wi), the risk grade membership degree of each risk factor is calculated. Finally, the risk grade of the high pier construction period of the bridge is determined to be "fourth grade risk" by P (i),. The result of risk assessment proves that the comprehensive evaluation method can effectively reflect the subordinate relationship of various risk factors during the construction of bridge piers, correctly evaluate the risk state during the construction of high piers, and provide a theoretical basis for subsequent risk decision-making. At the same time, the effectiveness and practicability of the evaluation method are verified, which is of practical significance to the risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous areas.
【學位授予單位】：長沙理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U445
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