本文選題：高速公路 + 交通流量預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)（工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院）》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：交通流量預(yù)測(cè)是高速公路投資建設(shè)者分析項(xiàng)目未來(lái)收益的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)之一,本文利用已建重慶滬渝高速公路的收費(fèi)站業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),建立交通流量數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),通過(guò)科學(xué)合理的數(shù)據(jù)挖掘算法,設(shè)計(jì)出基于數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)的交通流量預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng),以便為重慶涪豐石高速公路項(xiàng)目的投資建設(shè)、運(yùn)營(yíng)管理提供重要判斷依據(jù)。 本文首先介紹了課題研究的背景和國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀；其次說(shuō)明了擬建高速公路交通流量預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)開(kāi)發(fā)涉及的核心理論——數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù),并介紹了目前常用的智能交通軟件；然后通過(guò)用例圖詳細(xì)描述了用戶的需求,同時(shí)根據(jù)用戶需求討論了系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的設(shè)計(jì)方案；以此為基礎(chǔ),本文給出了擬建高速公路交通流量預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的詳細(xì)設(shè)計(jì)和實(shí)現(xiàn)過(guò)程,并且對(duì)系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)用驗(yàn)證進(jìn)行了展示,最后作者給出了系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行結(jié)果與四階段法預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果、以及涪豐石高速公路實(shí)際交通流量的比較分析結(jié)論。本文工作取得的成果主要包括兩個(gè)方面：第一,開(kāi)發(fā)了基于B/S (Browser/Server,瀏覽器/服務(wù)器模式)三層體系結(jié)構(gòu)的交通流量預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng),該系統(tǒng)包括了數(shù)據(jù)管理、數(shù)據(jù)挖掘和系統(tǒng)維護(hù)功能；第二,采取了數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)對(duì)已建高速公路收費(fèi)站業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析,構(gòu)建例如決策樹(shù)及時(shí)間序列算法,系統(tǒng)通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)挖掘分析可以根據(jù)現(xiàn)有收費(fèi)站的交通流量信息預(yù)測(cè)出擬建高速公路的交通流量。 本文討論的擬建高速公路交通流量預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng),可以為高速公路投資者設(shè)計(jì)合理的工程方案、測(cè)算前景交通流量、估算建造和運(yùn)營(yíng)成本提供依據(jù),也將為國(guó)內(nèi)高速公路業(yè)主和管理者提供有針對(duì)性的輔助管理以及決策上的相關(guān)技術(shù)幫助,并最終提高企業(yè)的投資收益。
[Abstract]:Traffic flow forecasting is one of the key indexes for highway investors to analyze the future income of the project. In this paper, the traffic flow database is established by using the service data of the toll station of the established Chongqing Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway. Through scientific and reasonable data mining algorithm, a traffic flow forecasting system based on data mining technology is designed in order to provide an important judgment basis for the investment construction and operation management of Fufeng expressway project in Chongqing. In this paper, the background of the research and the current situation of the research at home and abroad are introduced, secondly, the data mining technology which is involved in the development of the proposed expressway traffic flow forecasting system is described, and the commonly used intelligent transportation software is also introduced. Then, the user's requirements are described in detail by use case diagram, and the design scheme of the system database is discussed according to the user's demand. Based on this, the detailed design and implementation process of the proposed expressway traffic flow forecasting system are given. Finally, the author gives the results of the system operation and the prediction results of the four-stage method, as well as the conclusion of comparison and analysis of the actual traffic flow of Fufengshi Expressway. The main achievements of this paper include two aspects: first, a three-tier traffic flow forecasting system based on B / S browser / Server (browser / Server) architecture is developed, which includes data management, data mining and system maintenance functions; Secondly, the data mining technology is adopted to analyze the service data of the toll collection station, such as decision tree and time series algorithm. The system can predict the traffic flow of the proposed highway according to the traffic flow information of the existing toll stations through data mining analysis. The proposed highway traffic flow forecasting system discussed in this paper can provide the basis for highway investors to design reasonable project plan, calculate the foreground traffic flow, estimate the construction and operation cost. It will also provide domestic expressway owners and managers with targeted auxiliary management and relevant technical assistance in decision-making, and ultimately improve the investment returns of enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)（工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.14

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