本文選題：大型活動 + 突發(fā)事件��； 參考：《西南交通大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：大型活動期間,往往在短時間內(nèi)集聚了大量人流和車流,一旦突發(fā)危害性事件,應急疏散過程中的交通需求在時空上的集中特性尤為突出,增加了城市交通壓力和發(fā)生次生事件的可能性。為提高應對危害性突發(fā)事件能力、保障應急交通疏散過程安全有序,必須合理規(guī)劃應急交通疏散方案,如何選擇最優(yōu)疏散方案則成為了應急管理部門的決策難點。要做出對疏散方案優(yōu)劣的判斷,就需要對各方案的應急交通疏散效率進行全面、明確的評價。本文因此對大型活動突發(fā)事件下的應急交通疏散效率評價指標體系和評價方法展開了研究。 首先,本文在總結國內(nèi)外相關研究成果的基礎上,對大型活動和突發(fā)事件進行了概念界定,對應急交通疏散效率的內(nèi)涵進行了研究,并總結了大型活動交通特性、區(qū)位特性和運行組織特性,歸納了大型活動突發(fā)事件的特征。 其次,探討了大型活動應急交通疏散問題及其與一般場合下應急交通疏散的區(qū)別和聯(lián)系,分析了應急交通疏散過程和應急交通疏散方案內(nèi)容構成,研究了大型活動應急交通疏散的疏散需求、疏散交通流和采取的交通管控措施等交通特性。針對應急交通疏散效率影響因素分析構建了疏散效率評價指標體系,并給出了每一指標的度量方法,結合專家評分法、信息粒度和粗糙集理論構建了基于粗糙集-信息粒度的指標篩選模型,實現(xiàn)評價指標約簡,共篩選出包括疏散風險、疏散路網(wǎng)連通度等在內(nèi)的11個指標。 最后,運用目前已有的評價理論,對傳統(tǒng)的AHP判斷矩陣取值方式、基點相對重要性計算方法、判斷矩陣修正方法和權重確定方法進行了改進,并與PPCE模型結合求解各指標的主客觀權重,設計了求解PPCE模型和CAHP模型的基于實數(shù)編碼的自適應遺傳算法(RAGA),構建了基于組合賦權的廣義價值函數(shù)評價模型。為驗證所建評價指標體系和評價模型的實用性,選取一個虛擬突發(fā)事件下的武漢體育中心應急交通疏散場景進行實例運用,以Trans CAD作為仿真平臺,得到了疏散路網(wǎng)上流量分配情況及相關指標數(shù)值,并用MATLAB軟件進行綜合評價計算,通過各方案的應急交通疏散效率值對比篩選出最優(yōu)方案。
[Abstract]:During large-scale activities, a large number of people and vehicles are often gathered in a short period of time. In the event of a sudden and harmful event, the traffic demand in the emergency evacuation process is especially concentrated in time and space. Increased urban traffic pressure and the possibility of secondary events. In order to improve the ability to deal with hazardous emergencies and ensure the safety and order of emergency traffic evacuation process, it is necessary to plan the emergency traffic evacuation scheme reasonably. How to choose the optimal evacuation plan has become the decision-making difficulty of the emergency management department. To judge the advantages and disadvantages of the evacuation scheme, it is necessary to make a comprehensive and clear evaluation of the emergency traffic evacuation efficiency of each scheme. Therefore, the evaluation index system and evaluation method of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency are studied in this paper. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the related research results at home and abroad, this paper defines the concept of large-scale activities and emergencies, studies the connotation of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency, and summarizes the traffic characteristics of large-scale events. Location characteristics and operational organization characteristics, summed up the characteristics of large-scale events emergencies. Secondly, the paper discusses the problem of emergency traffic evacuation in large-scale activities and the difference and relation between emergency traffic evacuation and emergency traffic evacuation in general, and analyzes the process of emergency traffic evacuation and the content of emergency traffic evacuation scheme. In this paper, the evacuation requirements, evacuation flow and traffic control measures of emergency traffic evacuation for large scale events are studied. Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the evacuation efficiency of emergency traffic, the evaluation index system of evacuation efficiency is constructed, and the measurement method of each index is given, which is combined with the expert scoring method. Based on information granularity and rough set theory, an index screening model based on rough set and information granularity is constructed, and evaluation index reduction is realized. Eleven indexes, including evacuation risk and connectivity of evacuation network, are screened out. Finally, using the existing evaluation theory, this paper improves the traditional AHP judgment matrix method, the calculation method of the relative importance of the base point, the judgment matrix correction method and the weight determination method. Combining with the PPCE model to solve the subjective and objective weights of each index, an adaptive genetic algorithm based on real coding for solving PPCE model and CAHP model is designed, and a generalized value function evaluation model based on combinatorial weight is constructed. In order to verify the practicability of the evaluation index system and evaluation model, an emergency traffic evacuation scene of Wuhan Sports Center under the virtual emergency was selected to be used as an example, and Trans CAD was used as the simulation platform. The flow distribution and related index values of the evacuation road network are obtained, and the optimal scheme is selected by comparing the evacuation efficiency values of each scheme with the comprehensive evaluation calculation by MATLAB software.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

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