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  本文選題：船舶交通流　切入點：混合效應　出處：《武漢理工大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：船舶交通流量預測是將統(tǒng)計預測方法應用到水運工程技術上的一門新興學科,其研究對于港口規(guī)劃建設、管理調度意義重大.目前,對于船舶交通流量的預測方法很多,且有些方法的預測精度高、計算量小,但這些預測方法除具有各自的一般缺點之外,對所有船舶(無論大小)都按一艘進行統(tǒng)計,存在船舶交通流量細節(jié)預測精度低等問題,降低了預測結果的可適用性.因此探索新的方法研究船舶交通流量特點并對其進行預測有著極其重要的意義. 本論文主要利用混合效應模型理論,在船舶交通流現狀的背景下,將船舶進行分類別研究,根據船舶交通流量的相關因素及船舶個體特征,探索各影響因素之間以及與船舶交通流量之間的混合效應關系,從而建立最大程度反映港口實際交通狀況與特性的符合船舶交通流的混合效應模型,利用該模型對船舶交通流量進行預測研究分析,進而為水道或航道的規(guī)劃設計和船舶通航管理提供基礎性依據,并做出科學合理的港口規(guī)劃. 本文主要工作為以下幾個方面： 1.總結影響船舶交通流量的相關因素,并根據到達船舶的個體特征,對船舶進行合理分類,并分析混合效應對于船舶交通流研究的可適用性. 2.根據船舶交通流量影響因素,建立線性混合效應模型,通過擬合比對,驗證混合效應模型的可靠性和可行性. 3.建立基于樣條的非參數混合效應模型,解決模型計算問題,并將其應用到船舶交通流量與到達規(guī)律的研究上. 4.利用天津港船舶交通流觀測數據進行實例探究與結果對比分析. 論文詳盡地描述了船舶個體特征與交通流量的混合效應關系,結果表明利用混合效應模型,考慮組間差異,區(qū)分船舶類型來研究交通流量,驗證了模型對于交通流量預測與到達規(guī)律研究的可行可靠性與有效性,提高了預測精度,實際應用性很強,并為船舶交通流量細節(jié)預測提供了一個好方法.
[Abstract]:Ship traffic volume forecasting is the method applied to the port and waterway engineering technology on a new subject for the study of statistical prediction, port planning and construction, management and scheduling of great significance. At present, the prediction method of ship traffic flow, and some methods of high prediction accuracy, small amount of calculation, but the prediction method has general shortcomings the outside of all ships (regardless of size) according to a statistics, there is low accuracy problem of ship traffic flow prediction for details, reduce the prediction results. So the exploration method of ship traffic flow characteristics and its prediction has extremely important significance.
This paper used the mixed model theory in effect, the ship traffic flow situation under the background of the ship by category research, according to the related factors of vessel traffic flow and ship individual characteristics, mixing effect between the various influencing factors, and explore the relationship between traffic flow, so as to establish the maximum degree reflects the mixed effect model of ship the actual traffic status and traffic flow characteristics of port, forecast analysis of ship traffic flow by using the model, so as to provide basis for channel planning and management of ship navigation, and make scientific and rational planning of ports.
The main work of this paper is the following aspects:
1., summarize the factors that affect the traffic volume of ships, and classify the ships reasonably according to the individual characteristics of the ships, and analyze the applicability of the mixed effects to the research of ship traffic flow.
2. according to the influence factors of the ship traffic flow, a linear mixing effect model is set up, and the reliability and feasibility of the mixed effect model is verified by fitting comparison.
3. a non parametric mixed effect model based on spline is established to solve the problem of model calculation, and it is applied to the study of ship traffic flow and arrival law.
4. use the observation data of the ship traffic flow in Tianjin port to carry out a case study and compare the results with the results.
The detailed description of the relationship between individual characteristics and the mixed traffic flow of the ship, the results show that the mixed effects model, considering the differences between groups, to study the traffic flow between ship types, validation of the model for the study of traffic flow prediction and arrival pattern can be feasible and effective, to improve the prediction accuracy and practical application very strong, and it provides a good method for ship traffic flow details forecast.

【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.112;O212.1

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本文編號：1664150