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基于模糊層次分析法的高速公路隧道施工風險評價研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-03-24 05:14

  本文選題:高速公路隧道項目 切入點:風險管理 出處:《石家莊鐵道大學》2015年碩士論文


【摘要】:高速公路隧道建設(shè)項目具有施工周期長、投資大、技術(shù)要求高、內(nèi)部組織復雜、外部聯(lián)系廣泛等特點,在施工過程中存在大量的不確定性風險。為了確保工程項目能夠順利如期完成,并且能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)社會、經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境的最大效益,因此加強建設(shè)過程風險管理工作,極力避免工程項目風險的發(fā)生具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文對高速公路隧道施工項目從風險識別、風險分析、風險評價以及采取措施等方面進行闡述,最后結(jié)合工程實例,證明了模糊層次分析法在高速公路隧道建設(shè)風險管理過程中的使用性。本文首先查閱了大量國內(nèi)外關(guān)于隧道以及地下風險管理文獻,針對高速公路隧道施工建設(shè)的風險進行了全面梳理和系統(tǒng)分析,簡略介紹了高速公路隧道施工建設(shè)的特點,然后對風險識別與分析的方法進行了比較,結(jié)合工程項目特點采用工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)法和專家調(diào)查法相結(jié)合的方法來對風險因素進行識別,然后通過風險識別流程得出高速公路隧道施工風險影響因素。在考慮到建設(shè)項目風險中的不確定性和模糊性,提出基于模糊層次分析法的風險評價模型,并對其評價步驟進行詳細分析。本文最后通過東嶺隧道實際建設(shè)項目,應(yīng)用模糊層次分析法分析評價隧道項目風險,最終得出東嶺隧道建設(shè)所面臨的各種風險,并對這些風險的發(fā)生概率和嚴重程度做出評價,為風險決策提供正確有效地信息,實證表明了模糊層次分析法在高速公路隧道建設(shè)項目風險管理中的有效性。
[Abstract]:The expressway tunnel construction project has the characteristics of long construction period, large investment, high technical requirements, complex internal organization and extensive external connection, etc. In order to ensure that the project can be completed on schedule and realize the maximum social, economic and environmental benefits, the construction process risk management should be strengthened. It is of great practical significance to avoid the risk of engineering project. This paper expounds the risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation and measures taken in expressway tunnel construction project. The application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in the risk management of highway tunnel construction is proved. Firstly, a large number of documents on tunnel and underground risk management at home and abroad are consulted in this paper. Aiming at the risk of highway tunnel construction, this paper makes a comprehensive combing and systematic analysis, briefly introduces the characteristics of highway tunnel construction construction, and then compares the methods of risk identification and analysis. According to the characteristics of the project, the method of combining the work breakdown structure method with the expert investigation method is used to identify the risk factors. Then through the risk identification process, the risk factors of highway tunnel construction are obtained. Considering the uncertainty and fuzziness of construction project risk, a risk evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed. Finally, through the actual construction project of Dongling tunnel, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the tunnel project. Finally, the various risks faced by the construction of Dongling tunnel are obtained. The probability and severity of these risks are evaluated to provide correct and effective information for risk decision-making. The empirical results show the effectiveness of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in the risk management of highway tunnel construction projects.
【學位授予單位】:石家莊鐵道大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:U455.1

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條

1 王志軍;;高速公路隧道節(jié)能管理工作研究[J];交通世界;2017年30期

2 陽任紅;;高速公路隧道施工現(xiàn)場管理[J];黑龍江交通科技;2017年05期

3 黃凱;李晟東;;基于AHP和粗糙集的危險貨物集裝箱多式聯(lián)運安全綜合評價[J];物流技術(shù);2016年10期

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