本文關(guān)鍵詞：大型市政道路BT模式風(fēng)險分析和分擔(dān)研究　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： BT模式 市政道路 合規(guī)性分析 風(fēng)險分析 風(fēng)險分擔(dān) WBS-RBS ISM 模糊綜合評判法

【摘要】：隨著我國城市化的發(fā)展,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)越來越重要,但沉重的政府債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)使其融資陷入困境,而較為新型的BT模式則為此提供了新的途徑。但是國家尚未對該模式出臺相關(guān)法律法規(guī)進行約束,造成在國內(nèi)應(yīng)用時無規(guī)范借鑒并遭受了“帶資承包”等質(zhì)疑。而且,BT項目大多具有規(guī)模大、參與方眾多、外部環(huán)境復(fù)雜和風(fēng)險因素多等特點,因此各參與方在項目中的風(fēng)險管理工作就顯得尤為重要。本文即針對以上現(xiàn)象中存在的一些問題展開研究,以期對BT項目的規(guī)范性運行、風(fēng)險識別和評價以及風(fēng)險分擔(dān)工作提供借鑒和指導(dǎo)。主要研究工作如下： 1.闡述了BT模式在我國應(yīng)用時遇到的問題及其風(fēng)險管理的復(fù)雜性和特殊性,并介紹了BT模式的內(nèi)涵、特點和工作流程,并將BT模式與其它幾種類似PPP融資模式進行對比分析,總結(jié)出BT模式的適用性。 2.在明確我國常見的BT模式運行方式的參與方關(guān)系、內(nèi)涵和特點之后,篩選了若干判別標(biāo)準(zhǔn),對各運行方式進行合規(guī)性判別,并給出了規(guī)范運作的建議。 3.為了解決風(fēng)險管理的核心問題即風(fēng)險分擔(dān)問題,本文在目前的研究基礎(chǔ)之上,提出關(guān)于BT模式風(fēng)險分擔(dān)的原則和實施流程框圖。 4.將目前我國常用的風(fēng)險識別方法進行對比,篩選出符合BT模式風(fēng)險識別的方法,即WBS-RBS法,并對BT模式主要參與方的工作和風(fēng)險進行了分解。 5.結(jié)合BT項目風(fēng)險評價的特點和要求,本文篩選出ISM法和模糊綜合評判法并將它們一起運用于風(fēng)險分析和評價,讓這兩種方法的優(yōu)勢互補。 6.結(jié)合成都天府大道南延線BT項目進行實證分析：用WBS-RBS法識別本項目主要參與方的風(fēng)險并編制風(fēng)險清單,然后建立評價指標(biāo)體系；接著用ISM法和模糊綜合評判法對主要參與方的風(fēng)險進行分析和評價,其中隸屬度和風(fēng)險權(quán)重的確定分別使用的是均值法和AHP法。計算分析后得出項目主要參與方的風(fēng)險關(guān)聯(lián)和層次結(jié)構(gòu)圖、風(fēng)險等級和排序以及整體風(fēng)險水平,并結(jié)合項目實際驗證了評價方法的科學(xué)性。最后按照文中提出的風(fēng)險分擔(dān)原則和流程對該項目的風(fēng)險進行了分擔(dān)并做出必要說明。
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization in China, the construction of infrastructure is becoming more and more important, but the heavy burden of government debt makes its financing difficult. The relatively new BT model provides a new way to this end, but the state has not yet issued the relevant laws and regulations to restrict the model. Because of the lack of reference in domestic applications and has been questioned by "with capital contracting". And most of the BT projects have the characteristics of large scale, many participants, complex external environment and many risk factors. Therefore, the risk management work of the participants in the project is particularly important. This paper aims at some problems in the above phenomenon, with a view to the normative operation of BT projects. Risk identification and evaluation as well as risk sharing provide reference and guidance. The main research work is as follows: 1. The problems encountered in the application of BT mode in China and the complexity and particularity of risk management are expounded, and the connotation, characteristics and workflow of BT mode are introduced. The BT model is compared with other similar PPP financing models, and the applicability of BT model is summarized. 2. After defining the relationship, connotation and characteristics of the common BT operation mode in China, some discriminant standards are selected to judge the compliance of each operation mode. Some suggestions on the standard operation are also given. 3. In order to solve the core problem of risk management, which is risk sharing, this paper puts forward the principle and implementation flow chart of risk sharing in BT mode on the basis of current research. 4.Compared with the common risk identification methods in our country at present, the WBS-RBS method, which accords with BT pattern risk recognition method, is screened out. The work and risk of the main participants in BT mode are decomposed. 5. According to the characteristics and requirements of BT project risk evaluation, this paper selects the ISM method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and applies them to risk analysis and evaluation together, so that the advantages of the two methods complement each other. 6.According to the BT project of Chengdu Tianfu Avenue South extension Line, this paper uses WBS-RBS method to identify the risk of the main participants of the project and make the risk list, and then establish the evaluation index system; Then the ISM method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the main participants. The determination of membership and risk weight is based on the mean method and AHP method respectively. After the calculation and analysis of the main participants in the project risk association and hierarchy chart risk ranking and ranking as well as the overall risk level. Finally, according to the principle and process of risk sharing proposed in this paper, the risk of the project is shared and the necessary explanation is made.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU997;U415.1

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