【摘要】：人類社會(huì)經(jīng)過工業(yè)革命后經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了快速發(fā)展,但同時(shí)生態(tài)環(huán)境問題也在全球愈演愈烈,逐漸開始被人類所重視。為了測(cè)度社會(huì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,生態(tài)足跡模型應(yīng)運(yùn)而生,通過此模型的核算結(jié)果可以比較一個(gè)區(qū)域的總生態(tài)足跡和和其生態(tài)承載力,確定該地區(qū)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的程度。本文以福建省為研究區(qū)域,數(shù)據(jù)主要來源于《福建省統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》和《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》,核算了福建省2000—2013年的生態(tài)足跡、承載力和赤字/盈余及其對(duì)應(yīng)的人均值,且動(dòng)態(tài)分析了上述指標(biāo),最后結(jié)合福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r等因素,利用偏最小二乘回歸法(PLS)和灰色關(guān)聯(lián)熵法共同篩選出各可能的因素,并估計(jì)相對(duì)重要因素對(duì)福建省生態(tài)足跡的驅(qū)動(dòng)程度。結(jié)果顯示,福建省生態(tài)足跡和人均生態(tài)足跡顯著增加,其中碳吸收地足跡和人均碳吸收地足跡最大;該省生態(tài)承載力和人均生態(tài)承載力較為穩(wěn)定;該省2000~2001年生態(tài)承載力大于當(dāng)年的生態(tài)足跡,二者差值表現(xiàn)為盈余;2002~2013年各年生態(tài)足跡均要大于當(dāng)年的生態(tài)承載力,二者差值呈現(xiàn)為赤字,且福建省的生態(tài)赤字及其人均生態(tài)赤字正在逐年上升,生態(tài)足跡多樣性指數(shù)也在下降,說明該省近幾年來的發(fā)展加大了對(duì)自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的壓力,威脅了生態(tài)系統(tǒng)多樣性,是不可持續(xù)的;與此同時(shí)福建省萬元GDP生態(tài)足跡卻在不斷下降,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展能力指標(biāo)加速,表明了福建省正在努力提升資源和能源的利用效率,其快速發(fā)展造成的生態(tài)代價(jià)也在不斷降低。影響生態(tài)足跡的可能因素中,總?cè)丝跀?shù)、能源消費(fèi)總量、城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均消費(fèi)支出、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值、GDP和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值等因素對(duì)生態(tài)足跡呈正向促進(jìn)作用,且影響由大到小排列;而農(nóng)村人口、全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資額、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值和農(nóng)村居民家庭平均每人總支出卻有反向遏制作用,遏制作用依次減少。最后針對(duì)本文所做的研究做了一些展望:進(jìn)一步完善生態(tài)足跡理論的核算方法;致力于其模型的動(dòng)態(tài)分析及預(yù)測(cè);結(jié)合生態(tài)足跡指標(biāo)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展等相關(guān)指標(biāo)的聯(lián)合研究。
[Abstract]:After the industrial revolution, the economy of human society has developed rapidly, but at the same time, the ecological environment problem is becoming more and more serious all over the world. In order to measure the sustainable development of society, ecological footprint model emerges as the times require. Through the accounting results of this model, the total ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of a region can be compared, and the degree of sustainable development in this area can be determined. In this paper, Fujian Province is taken as the study area. The data are mainly from the Statistical Yearbook of Fujian Province and the Statistical Yearbook of China. The ecological footprint, carrying capacity and deficit / surplus of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2013 and their corresponding human mean values are calculated. The dynamic analysis of the above indexes is made. Finally, combined with the economic and social development of Fujian Province and other factors, the partial least square regression (PLS) method and the grey correlation entropy method are used to screen out the possible factors. And estimate the driving degree of relative important factors to Fujian ecological footprint. The results show that the ecological footprint and the per capita ecological footprint of Fujian Province are significantly increased, in which the carbon footprint and the per capita footprint are the largest, the ecological carrying capacity and the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Fujian Province are relatively stable. The ecological carrying capacity of the province from 2000 to 2001 is larger than the ecological footprint of the current year, and the difference between the two shows that the ecological footprint of each year from 2002 to 2013 is larger than that of the current year, and the difference between the two shows a deficit. Moreover, the ecological deficit and its per capita ecological deficit in Fujian Province are increasing year by year, and the diversity index of ecological footprint is also decreasing, which indicates that the development of Fujian Province in recent years has increased the pressure on the natural ecosystem and threatened the diversity of the ecosystem. At the same time, the ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP in Fujian Province is declining and the economic development capacity index is accelerating, indicating that Fujian Province is working hard to improve the efficiency of resources and energy use. The ecological cost of its rapid development is also decreasing. Among the possible factors affecting ecological footprint, such as the total population, the total energy consumption, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, the output value of the tertiary industry and the output value of the secondary industry, and so on, positively promote the ecological footprint. But the rural population, the investment of fixed assets of the whole society, the output value of the primary industry and the average total expenditure of the rural households have the reverse containment effect, which is reduced in turn. Finally, this paper makes some prospects for the research: to further improve the accounting method of ecological footprint theory; to focus on the dynamic analysis and prediction of its model; combined with the ecological footprint indicators and economic and social development and other related indicators of joint research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X22

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