本文選題：環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)　切入點(diǎn)：碳交易　出處：《四川省社會(huì)科學(xué)院》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文從環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、投資經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、財(cái)務(wù)管理學(xué)理論出發(fā),通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外研究的整理,以及對(duì)國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)林業(yè)碳匯及碳交易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的分析,揭示出我國(guó)林業(yè)碳匯發(fā)展中存在的問(wèn)題,基于四川CDM造林再造林項(xiàng)目的實(shí)證研究,以量化分析的方式闡釋森林外部效益內(nèi)部化的可行性與林業(yè)碳匯潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值。本文選取四種有代表性的林業(yè)碳匯造林樹種,研究其在林業(yè)碳匯造林情境下與非林業(yè)碳匯造林情景下的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。采用異速生長(zhǎng)方程法,長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)法,并按照CDM造林再造林方法學(xué)要求,采用生物量擴(kuò)展因子法進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析。研究得出,在項(xiàng)目期同為60年的情況下,非碳匯造林各樹種的財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值均為負(fù)值,而碳匯造林均為正值且明顯高于非碳匯造林情景;當(dāng)項(xiàng)目期選取為各樹種最佳項(xiàng)目期時(shí),研究樹種碳匯造林較非碳匯造林平均項(xiàng)目期高出16年,財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值為非碳匯造林財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值4.41倍。由于碳匯造林存在項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)成本,規(guī)模越大分?jǐn)偟絾挝幻娣e的項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)成本將越低,通過(guò)對(duì)不同規(guī)模下碳匯造林單位面積財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值的分析,得出隨著規(guī)模的增大,面積增加引起的財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值的變化逐漸減小,當(dāng)項(xiàng)目面積在500公頃以下時(shí)財(cái)務(wù)內(nèi)部收益率變化相對(duì)比較明顯,當(dāng)超過(guò)500公頃后,變化相對(duì)不太明顯。從樹種來(lái)看,與傳統(tǒng)造林相似,碳匯造林情景下速生樹種經(jīng)濟(jì)效益依然高于慢生樹種,但隨著項(xiàng)目期的增長(zhǎng),慢生樹種的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益會(huì)逐漸增加,甚至超過(guò)速生樹種。根據(jù)研究結(jié)果,本文對(duì)林業(yè)碳匯項(xiàng)目樹種選擇、項(xiàng)目期選擇、項(xiàng)目規(guī)模選擇進(jìn)行了優(yōu)先性分析,同時(shí)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外不同的項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)進(jìn)行了闡述,為項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的選擇提出建議,并對(duì)林業(yè)碳匯投資的注意事項(xiàng)以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了說(shuō)明。我國(guó)尚處在林業(yè)碳匯發(fā)展初級(jí)階段,還有很多亟待解決的問(wèn)題,研究認(rèn)為,定期組織林業(yè)碳匯相關(guān)知識(shí)培訓(xùn)將全面提高我國(guó)林業(yè)碳匯認(rèn)知水平,有針對(duì)性地扶持林業(yè)碳匯咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)將為我國(guó)林業(yè)碳匯的發(fā)展提供技術(shù)保障,全面規(guī)劃林業(yè)碳匯優(yōu)先發(fā)展區(qū)域是進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)我國(guó)林業(yè)碳匯發(fā)展的重要任務(wù),同時(shí),在建設(shè)碳交易現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的同時(shí)我們也應(yīng)開(kāi)始逐步探索碳期貨市場(chǎng)的建設(shè)。此外,在全國(guó)碳交易市場(chǎng)蓬勃發(fā)展之時(shí),四川省也應(yīng)加快推進(jìn)碳交易機(jī)構(gòu)備案工作并初步啟動(dòng)碳排放權(quán)配額交易。
[Abstract]:Based on the theories of environmental economics, investment economics and financial management, this paper analyzes the present situation of forestry carbon sinks and carbon trading in China and abroad. This paper reveals the problems existing in the development of forestry carbon sinks in China. The empirical study on afforestation and reforestation projects based on Sichuan CDM is carried out. The feasibility of the internalization of forest external benefits and the potential economic value of forest carbon sequestration were explained by quantitative analysis. Four representative forest carbon sequestration tree species were selected in this paper. The economic benefits of forest carbon sequestration and non-forestry carbon sequestration were studied. The method of allometric growth equation, long-term trend method and CDM reforestation methodology were used. Using the method of biomass expansion factor to analyze the data, it is concluded that the financial net present value of non-carbon sink afforestation tree species is negative, while the carbon sink afforestation is positive and significantly higher than that of non-carbon sink afforestation scenario under the same project period of 60 years. When the project period is the best for each tree species, the average project period of carbon sink afforestation of study tree species is 16 years higher than that of non-carbon sink afforestation, and the financial net present value is 4.41 times that of non-carbon sink afforestation. The larger the scale is, the lower the project development cost will be. By analyzing the financial NPV of carbon sink afforestation unit area under different scales, it is concluded that with the increase of scale, the change of financial NPV caused by the increase of area gradually decreases. When the project area is less than 500 hectares, the change of financial internal rate of return is relatively obvious, and when more than 500 hectares, the change is relatively less obvious. In terms of tree species, it is similar to traditional afforestation. The economic benefit of fast-growing tree species is still higher than that of slow-growing tree species in carbon sink afforestation scenarios, but with the increase of project period, the economic benefit of slow-growing tree species will gradually increase, even exceed that of fast-growing tree species. This paper analyzes the priority of tree species selection, project duration selection and project scale selection for forestry carbon sequestration projects. At the same time, it expounds the different project development standards at home and abroad, and puts forward some suggestions for the selection of project development standards. The paper also explains the matters needing attention and the risk of forestry carbon sink investment. China is still in the primary stage of forestry carbon sink development, and there are still many problems to be solved urgently. Regular organization of forestry carbon sink related knowledge training will improve the cognition level of forestry carbon sink in China, and provide technical guarantee for the development of forestry carbon sink by providing targeted support to forestry carbon sink consulting organization. It is an important task to further promote the development of forestry carbon sequestration in China by comprehensively planning the priority development area of forestry carbon sinks. At the same time, we should also begin to explore the construction of carbon futures market while building the spot market of carbon trading. At a time when the national carbon trading market is booming, Sichuan should also speed up the filing of carbon trading institutions and initially launch carbon emissions quota trading.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川省社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F326.2;X196

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