發(fā)布時間：2018-01-03 13:28

  本文關鍵詞：北京市機動車限行政策對空氣質量和公眾健康的影響研究　出處：《北京理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 機動車限行 空氣質量 公眾健康 廣義相加模型

【摘要】：近年來,伴隨經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,北京市的機動車保有量大幅增長,在給城市生活帶來便捷的同時,交通擁堵和空氣污染問題也日益凸顯,機動車污染物排放已成為北京市空氣污染的重要來源之一,直接威脅著公眾健康。北京市于2008年奧運會期間開始嘗試實施機動車尾號限行管理政策,以期緩解交通擁堵和改善空氣質量,現(xiàn)在機動車按尾號限行已經(jīng)成為北京市一項常規(guī)的交通管理政策。然而,圍繞機動車限行管理政策的研究和討論大多集中在交通出行或空氣質量的單一方面,還缺乏對公眾健康問題的關注。因此,結合北京市實際,探討機動車限行政策的實施對空氣質量和公眾健康的影響具有較強的理論意義和實踐價值。本文在閱讀和分析大量相關文獻的基礎上,梳理總結了空氣質量、公眾健康的影響因素,確定了研究中的變量,包括空氣質量指數(shù)、呼吸科門診人數(shù)、急診人數(shù)、氣象因素(平均溫度、相對濕度、平均風速)以及工作日等變量�；诹餍胁W的相關研究,本文確定選用廣義相加模型作為研究的基本模型,并且考慮到北京季節(jié)特征明顯,本文還在基本模型的基礎上,添加了機動車限行政策和供暖季節(jié)的交互項形成交互模型,以探討機動車限行政策的實行在供暖季節(jié)和非供暖季節(jié)是否有不同的影響效果。此外,本文還考察了滯后方式和滯后期的不同對基本模型和交互模型研究結果的影響。利用R軟件完成了對模型的擬合及分析,形成本文的研究結論,然后基于研究結論針對北京市實施機動車限行政策提出幾點建議,希望對北京市實施機動車限行管理政策提供一定的參考和借鑒,為首都空氣質量的改善和公眾健康水平的提升做出貢獻。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of the economy, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing has increased significantly, which brings convenience to urban life, traffic congestion and air pollution problems have become increasingly prominent. The emission of motor vehicle pollutants has become one of the important sources of air pollution in Beijing, which is a direct threat to public health. During the 2008 Olympic Games, Beijing began to try to implement the vehicle tail number limit management policy. In order to alleviate traffic congestion and improve air quality, it has become a routine traffic management policy in Beijing. Most of the research and discussion around the vehicle restriction management policy focus on the single aspect of traffic travel or air quality, and lack of attention to the public health problem. Therefore, combined with the actual situation in Beijing. It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to discuss the effect of motor vehicle restriction policy on air quality and public health. Based on the reading and analysis of a large number of relevant documents, this paper summarizes the air quality. Factors affecting public health were identified as variables in the study, including air quality index, respiratory outpatient population, emergency population, and meteorological factors (mean temperature, relative humidity). Based on the relevant epidemiological studies, this paper selected the generalized additive model as the basic model of the study, and considered that the seasonal characteristics of Beijing are obvious. On the basis of the basic model, this paper adds the vehicle restriction policy and the interactive items of heating season to form an interactive model. In order to explore whether the implementation of motor vehicle restriction policy in heating season and non-heating season have different effects. In addition. The effects of lag mode and lag time on the research results of basic model and interactive model are also investigated. The model fitting and analysis are completed by using R software, and the conclusion of this paper is formed. Then based on the conclusions of the study on the implementation of motor vehicle restrictions in Beijing to put forward a few suggestions, hoping to provide certain reference and reference to the implementation of motor vehicle restriction management policy in Beijing. To contribute to the improvement of air quality and public health in the capital.
【學位授予單位】：北京理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X734.2;X51

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