本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國湖泊環(huán)境健康指數(shù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析　出處：《黑龍江大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 水質(zhì)評價(jià) 湖泊環(huán)境 累積Logistic回歸模型 水質(zhì)等級預(yù)測

【摘要】：湖泊水質(zhì)的評價(jià)是湖泊水體環(huán)境評價(jià)的基礎(chǔ)部分,對湖泊水體環(huán)境做出科學(xué)和客觀的評價(jià)是社會(huì)發(fā)展的需要,同時(shí)也是人類身體健康的需要.對湖泊水質(zhì)做出評價(jià)時(shí),選擇一個(gè)合理的湖泊水質(zhì)評定方法是十分重要的.本論文基于累積Logistic回歸模型,對湖泊水質(zhì)等級進(jìn)行評定.通過對我國江蘇省某湖泊的實(shí)際監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,對湖泊水質(zhì)等級建立關(guān)于PH、總磷含量(TP)、ORP、總氮(TN)含量等7個(gè)影響因素的累積Logistic模型,并對模型進(jìn)行修正.把江蘇省某湖泊的實(shí)際監(jiān)測樣本按照一定的原則取出一部分作為訓(xùn)練樣本,用剩余的部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)作為檢驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù),訓(xùn)練樣本用來估計(jì)模型中參數(shù),然后利用所構(gòu)建的累積Logistic回歸模型對訓(xùn)練樣本和檢驗(yàn)樣本的水質(zhì)等級進(jìn)行預(yù)測來檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ?根據(jù)所得結(jié)果可知,對于訓(xùn)練樣本和檢驗(yàn)樣本預(yù)測等級正判率分別是91.67%和90.28%.利用我們建立的湖泊水體質(zhì)量等級評定累積Logistic模型對其它湖泊實(shí)際監(jiān)測樣本的等級進(jìn)行預(yù)測,結(jié)果顯示在對我國吉林省某湖泊水質(zhì)等級的預(yù)測中正判率為88.68%.在沒有得到正確判斷的樣本中,所得的預(yù)測結(jié)果也是處于原等級經(jīng)驗(yàn)值相鄰等級,說明模型對湖泊水質(zhì)等級的評定有較好的評估作用,具有一定的實(shí)際意義和應(yīng)用價(jià)值.
[Abstract]:The evaluation of lake water quality is the basic part of lake water environment evaluation. It is the need of social development to make scientific and objective evaluation of lake water environment. At the same time, it is also the need of human health. It is very important to choose a reasonable method to evaluate lake water quality. This paper is based on cumulative Logistic regression model. Based on the statistical analysis of the actual monitoring data of a lake in Jiangsu Province, the author established the PHand total phosphorus content (TPN) ORP for the water quality grade of the lake. Cumulative Logistic model of seven influencing factors such as total nitrogen (TN) content. And the model is modified. The actual monitoring samples of a lake in Jiangsu Province are taken out as training samples according to certain principles, and the remaining part data are used as test data. The training sample is used to estimate the parameters of the model, and then the cumulative Logistic regression model is used to predict the water quality of the training sample and the test sample. For training samples and test samples, the positive rate of prediction grade is 91.67% and 90.28.The cumulative Logistic model established by us for evaluating the quality of lake water body is applied to other lakes. The grades of international monitoring samples were predicted. The results show that the correct judgment rate is 88.68 in the prediction of the water quality grade of a lake in Jilin Province. In the sample that has not been correctly judged, the predicted result is also in the adjacent grade of the experience value of the original grade. It shows that the model has a good evaluation function on the evaluation of lake water quality, and has certain practical significance and application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：黑龍江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X824

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本文編號：1359547