【摘要】：伴隨著國家化工工業(yè)的迅猛發(fā)展,危險化學品得到了廣泛的利用,而其在運輸、儲存、使用的過程中所引發(fā)的安全事故也層出不窮,對人民群眾的生命財產(chǎn)安全造成了重大的影響。據(jù)統(tǒng)計,在危險化學品事故中,道路危險化學品的運輸活動出現(xiàn)事故的概率最高。由于道路危險化學品運輸是一個時時變化的動態(tài)系統(tǒng),涉及人員、車輛、危險化學品類別、運輸?shù)缆�、天氣狀況等眾多因素,而系統(tǒng)中任一因素都有可能導致危險化學品運輸事故的發(fā)生;同時,為了加強運輸系統(tǒng)的安全性,排除危險因素,除了采用完善人員、車輛、安全設施等措施外,合理地選擇運輸路線能夠有利地避開不安全因素,并降低事故對周圍人員及環(huán)境帶來的損失。因此,為了全面、準確地預估道路危險化學品運輸活動中存在的風險,及時做好事故防范措施,建立了道路危險化學品運輸風險評估模型及選線優(yōu)化評價模型。具體研究內(nèi)容大致可以分為以下四個部分:(1)了解道路危險化學品運輸系統(tǒng)各要素內(nèi)容及特點,包括危險化學品類別、運輸?shù)缆贰臉I(yè)人員、運輸車輛與設備設施。并應用安全統(tǒng)計學基本原理,對2013-2014年道路危險化學品運輸事故的事故類型、致因因素、危險化學品種類、事故發(fā)生時間進行了統(tǒng)計,以獲得事故發(fā)生與發(fā)展的基本規(guī)律。(2)通過事故率與事故后果兩大指標建立道路危險化學品運輸風險評估模型。對“人”、“物”、“環(huán)”、“管”四大因素展開分析,將道路特征、天氣狀況、交通量、危險化學品特性等作為修正系數(shù)以建立事故率計算模型;通過ALOHA模擬軟件對危險化學品事故的影響范圍進行模擬運用,并以事故率與事故影響范圍為基本參數(shù),從人員傷亡、環(huán)境影響以及財產(chǎn)損失三方面計算道路危險化學品運輸事故的后果嚴重度。(3)根據(jù)多目標規(guī)劃方法,建立運輸風險與運輸成本共同制衡的的雙目標函數(shù)關系,并通過層次分析法確立各評價指標的權重值,建立道路危險化學品運輸選線評價模型。(4)通過實例分析對文中建立的風險評價模型及選線優(yōu)化綜合評估模型進行驗證,通過數(shù)據(jù)代入與計算,得到各路段風險總值與綜合評價值,選出最優(yōu)路徑,證明了文中所建模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national chemical industry, hazardous chemicals have been widely used, and their transportation, storage and use of the process of safety accidents are also endless. The safety of the people's lives and property has had a great impact. According to statistics, the probability of traffic accidents of road hazardous chemicals is the highest in hazardous chemical accidents. As road hazardous chemical transport is a dynamic system that is constantly changing, it involves people, vehicles, dangerous chemical categories, transport roads, weather conditions, and many other factors. Any factor in the system may lead to accidents in the transportation of dangerous chemicals; At the same time, in order to enhance the safety of the transportation system and eliminate the risk factors, in addition to adopting measures such as improving personnel, vehicles and safety facilities, reasonable choice of transportation routes can advantageously avoid unsafe factors. And reduce the accident to the surrounding personnel and environmental damage. Therefore, in order to estimate the risks in the transportation of road hazardous chemicals comprehensively and accurately, the risk assessment model and route selection optimization evaluation model of road hazardous chemicals transportation are established. The specific research contents can be divided into the following four parts: (1) understand the elements and characteristics of road hazardous chemicals transportation system, including hazardous chemicals categories, transport roads, practitioners, transport vehicles and equipment facilities. Based on the basic principles of safety statistics, the types of accidents, cause factors, types of dangerous chemicals, and the time of accidents occurring in the road transportation accidents of dangerous chemicals in 2013-2014 are analyzed. In order to obtain the basic law of accident occurrence and development. (2) establish the risk assessment model of road hazardous chemicals transportation through two indexes: accident rate and accident consequence. This paper analyzes the four factors of "person", "thing", "ring" and "management", and takes road characteristics, weather conditions, traffic volume and dangerous chemical characteristics as correction coefficients to establish a model for calculating accident rate. The influence range of hazardous chemical accident was simulated by ALOHA software, and the accident rate and accident impact range were taken as the basic parameters. The environmental impact and property loss are used to calculate the severity of road hazardous chemical transportation accidents. (3) based on the multi-objective programming method, a two-objective function relationship of transportation risk and transportation cost is established. The weight value of each evaluation index is established by AHP, and the evaluation model of route selection for road hazardous chemicals transportation is established. (4) the risk evaluation model and the comprehensive evaluation model of route selection optimization are verified by example analysis. Through data substitution and calculation, the total risk value and the comprehensive evaluation value of each section are obtained, and the optimal path is selected, which proves the feasibility of the model established in this paper.
【學位授予單位】：湖南科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TQ086.5

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