本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于乘客選擇習(xí)慣變化的機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士時(shí)刻表動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化研究　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士 培育期 市場(chǎng)份額 時(shí)刻表 行為模擬 動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化

【摘要】：隨著民航業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,中國(guó)機(jī)場(chǎng)數(shù)量不斷增加,逐漸出現(xiàn)多個(gè)機(jī)場(chǎng)服務(wù)同一區(qū)域的現(xiàn)象(多機(jī)場(chǎng)區(qū)域)。在多機(jī)場(chǎng)區(qū)域中,機(jī)場(chǎng)間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日趨激烈,為吸引更多腹地客源,一些機(jī)場(chǎng)推出新型的集疏運(yùn)服務(wù)“機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士”來(lái)增強(qiáng)自身的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。對(duì)提供新服務(wù)的機(jī)場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō),其市場(chǎng)份額會(huì)在市場(chǎng)平衡被打破后逐漸上升,并在下一個(gè)市場(chǎng)平衡狀態(tài)形成時(shí)回歸平穩(wěn),整個(gè)上升過(guò)程通常叫做市場(chǎng)培育期。由于培育期內(nèi)“機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士”時(shí)刻表對(duì)加快和增大市場(chǎng)份額的增長(zhǎng)非常關(guān)鍵,因此本文在模擬乘客長(zhǎng)期需求演變的基礎(chǔ)上,利用時(shí)刻表、機(jī)票價(jià)格與市場(chǎng)份額間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,以最大化培育期內(nèi)市場(chǎng)份額增幅與增速、最小化運(yùn)營(yíng)成本為目標(biāo)動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化培育期內(nèi)的“機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士”單條線路及整個(gè)線網(wǎng)的時(shí)刻表。首先,在考慮時(shí)刻表與機(jī)場(chǎng)市場(chǎng)份額之間互動(dòng)關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建習(xí)慣影響下的機(jī)場(chǎng)選擇決策模型與習(xí)慣演變模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)“機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士”開(kāi)通后乘客機(jī)場(chǎng)選擇行為和選擇習(xí)慣同步轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程的模擬,并得到培育期內(nèi)機(jī)場(chǎng)市場(chǎng)份額隨時(shí)間逐漸演變的過(guò)程。其次,基于培育期內(nèi)乘客需求的模擬數(shù)據(jù),針對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)與單個(gè)城市間的“機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士”服務(wù),以培育期最短、市場(chǎng)份額增幅最大和運(yùn)營(yíng)成本最低為多重目標(biāo),建立培育期內(nèi)時(shí)刻表的動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化模型,并設(shè)計(jì)針對(duì)多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化問(wèn)題的啟發(fā)式算法。接下來(lái),將研究范圍由一條線路擴(kuò)展到整個(gè)線網(wǎng),基于時(shí)刻表、機(jī)票價(jià)格和市場(chǎng)份額之間的復(fù)雜互動(dòng)關(guān)系,在單條線路時(shí)刻表動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化模型的基礎(chǔ)上加入航空公司機(jī)票定價(jià)模型,建立培育期內(nèi)“機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)途巴士”線網(wǎng)的時(shí)刻表動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化模型,同時(shí)設(shè)計(jì)求解算法。研究結(jié)果表明乘客選擇習(xí)慣的轉(zhuǎn)變是引起機(jī)場(chǎng)市場(chǎng)份額在培育期內(nèi)逐漸變化的潛在原因；在培育期內(nèi)合理設(shè)計(jì)新服務(wù)的運(yùn)營(yíng)方案有助于快速培養(yǎng)乘客的習(xí)慣,并最大化新服務(wù)的實(shí)施效果；同時(shí),考慮新服務(wù)和其他影響習(xí)慣轉(zhuǎn)變的因素之間可能存在的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系,能夠減弱外部環(huán)境變化對(duì)新服務(wù)實(shí)施效果產(chǎn)生的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, the number of airports in China is increasing, and there are many airport services in the same area (multi airport area). In the airport area, airport competition, in order to attract more tourists to launch some airport hinterland, transportation service "new airport bus" to enhance their competitiveness. For the airports that provide new services, their market share will gradually increase after the market equilibrium is broken, and will return smoothly when the next market equilibrium state is formed. The whole rise process is usually called the market incubation period. The cultivation period "airport bus timetable" to accelerate and increase the market share growth is very important, so this paper based long term evolution of demand in the simulation of passengers, the schedule, ticket price and market share of the interactive relationship between the cultivation period, to maximize market share growth and growth, minimize operating costs objective dynamic optimization cultivation period within the "airport bus" single line and the line network schedule. First of all, considering the relation of the interaction between the schedule and the airport market share, build habits under the influence of airport choice decision-making model and habit evolution model, simulation of the airport bus after the opening of passenger choice behavior and habit synchronous transition process, and get the process of cultivating market share gradually evolved within the period of the airport with time. Secondly, the simulation data based on the needs of the passengers in the incubation period, according to the airport with a single city between the airport bus service, with the shortest incubation period, the largest market share increase and the lowest operation cost for multiple objectives, establish dynamic optimization model within the period of time table, and for the design of heuristic algorithm for multiobjective optimization problems the. Next, the scope of the study will be a line by line extended to the entire network, complex interactive relationship between the schedule, ticket price and market share between the ticket pricing model based on joining the airline based on single line schedule dynamic optimization model, set up a training period "coach" network schedule optimization at the same time model, algorithm design. The results show that the choice of passenger habits change is a potential cause of the airport market share gradually changed during the cultivation period; the operation scheme of rational design of new services in the cultivation period contribute to the fast passenger train habits, and implement the maximum effectiveness of the new service; at the same time, the linkage relationship may exist between the factors change new service and other effects of habits, changes in the external environment can weaken the effect of the implementation of the new service.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：V354;U492.4

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