【摘要】：觀測事實表明,近百年來全球氣候經(jīng)歷了顯著的變暖過程,并且在人類活動排放的CO_2等溫室氣體不斷增加的前提下,未來變暖將會持續(xù)下去.利用IPCC第五次評估報告中34個CMIP5模式對于未來不同CO_2排放情景下的輸出結(jié)果,評估了未來百年中國近海海表溫度(SST)的變化趨勢.結(jié)果表明,基于當前人類的CO_2典型排放速度(RCP4.5),中國近海的大部分海區(qū)在2030年以后普遍升溫并將接近或超過1℃(相對于1970~2005年的歷史海溫).其中,中高緯度海區(qū)的升溫速率最為明顯,黃海、渤海和東海的增溫幅度明顯高于南海,在2030~2039、2060~2069年和2090~2099年間的升溫將會分別超過1、2℃和3℃左右.在CO_2加倍排放的情景下(RCP8.5),渤海在21世紀末最大升溫可能接近5℃,從而成為全球升溫幅度最大的區(qū)域之一.由此可見,未來氣候變暖背景下中國近海的環(huán)境生態(tài)將面臨嚴重挑戰(zhàn),這也使得控制減少溫室氣體的排放、降低氣候變化的風險成為當前的緊迫議題.
[Abstract]:The observation results show that the global climate has experienced a significant warming process in the past hundred years, and the warming will continue in the future under the premise of increasing greenhouse gases such as CO_2 emitted by human activities. Based on the output results of 34 CMIP5 models in the fifth IPCC assessment report for different CO_2 emission scenarios in the future, the variation trend of sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China in the next hundred years is evaluated. The results show that, based on the typical CO_2 emission rate (RCP4.5) of human beings, most of the sea areas off the coast of China will generally warm up after 2030 and will be close to or above 1 鈩，

本文編號：2481110