【摘要】：考慮到海平面上升對(duì)長(zhǎng)江口水動(dòng)力構(gòu)成的嚴(yán)重威脅,該文基于MIKE21軟件建立了長(zhǎng)江口二維水動(dòng)力數(shù)學(xué)模型,采用實(shí)測(cè)潮位、流速以及流向資料對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和IPCC報(bào)告進(jìn)行總結(jié)歸納,得到2100年海平面保守上升值約為0.5 m。運(yùn)用驗(yàn)證好的數(shù)學(xué)模型對(duì)海平面上升0.5 m后長(zhǎng)江口洪季水動(dòng)力進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明:海平面上升后,漲潮時(shí)間增長(zhǎng),落潮時(shí)間縮短;海平面上升0.5 m后,長(zhǎng)江口南北支、南北港以及南北槽高潮位增加了0.43 m 0.46 m,高潮位增幅沿程向上減小,北支上段漲潮動(dòng)力受阻較明顯(潮位增幅較大);海平面上升0.5 m后,北支流速增幅比南支大,北支上段落潮流量增幅達(dá)82.8%,對(duì)北支水道的發(fā)展有利�？傮w而言,海平面上升對(duì)目前長(zhǎng)江口沿岸的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)構(gòu)成了一定威脅,但對(duì)已經(jīng)衰退的北支水道有利。
[Abstract]:Considering the serious threat posed by sea level rise to the hydrodynamics of the Changjiang Estuary, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic mathematical model of the Changjiang Estuary is established based on MIKE21 software. The model is verified by the measured tidal level, velocity and flow direction data. Based on the summary of relevant literature and IPCC report, it is concluded that sea level rise is about 0.5 m conservatively in 2100. The hydrodynamics of the Yangtze Estuary flood season after sea level rise of 0.5 m are numerically simulated by using the verified mathematical model. The calculated results show that after sea level rise, the time of rising tide increases and the time of falling tide shortens, and after the rise of 0.5 m sea level, the high tide level increases by 0.43 m / 0.46 m in the north and south branches of the Yangtze River Estuary, the north and south ports and the north and south trenches, and the increase of high tide level decreases upward along the course. After sea level rise of 0.5 m, the increase of velocity in the north branch is larger than that in the south branch, and the increase of tidal current in the upper section of the northern branch is 82.8, which is beneficial to the development of the northern branch waterway. Overall, sea level rise poses a threat to the current standards along the Yangtze Estuary, but is beneficial to the declining northern branch waterways.
【作者單位】： 浙江海洋大學(xué)海運(yùn)與港航建筑工程學(xué)院;同濟(jì)大學(xué)土木工程學(xué)院;上海海洋大學(xué)海洋科學(xué)學(xué)院;浙江工業(yè)大學(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院;海軍91991部隊(duì);
【基金】：國(guó)家“九七三”重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃(2012CB95 7704) 浙江海洋大學(xué)科研啟動(dòng)經(jīng)費(fèi)(1987)~~
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P731.2

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