本文選題：地震海嘯 + 局地海嘯��； 參考：《中國(guó)地震局工程力學(xué)研究所》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：自古以來(lái),中國(guó)沿海區(qū)域人口聚集,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá),交通便利,但相比于內(nèi)陸,沿海區(qū)域有遭受海嘯襲擊的危險(xiǎn)。近年來(lái),沿海地區(qū)的海嘯危險(xiǎn)性分析工作已逐步開(kāi)展,大都采用確定性分析方法給出了定性結(jié)果。采用概率性分析方法進(jìn)行定量評(píng)估的工作還開(kāi)展較少,主要原因是概率性海嘯危險(xiǎn)性分析(PTHA)關(guān)鍵步驟和環(huán)節(jié)還需完善,關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題還需得到有效解決。因此,本文圍繞PTHA關(guān)鍵參數(shù)確定、PTHA關(guān)鍵方法完善、PTHA參數(shù)敏感性分析三方面內(nèi)容開(kāi)展研究,最終編制我國(guó)地震海嘯危險(xiǎn)性圖集。主要工作如下:(1)PTHA關(guān)鍵參數(shù)確定。在總結(jié)了常用的幾種震級(jí)與斷層長(zhǎng)度、寬度和滑移量的經(jīng)驗(yàn)關(guān)系基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)比較它們的適用震級(jí)范圍、適用地區(qū)范圍以及使用現(xiàn)狀,并且比較經(jīng)驗(yàn)關(guān)系與近年發(fā)生的幾次破壞性海嘯的真實(shí)震源參數(shù),確定了Papazachos等的針對(duì)逆沖斷層經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式較適合于我國(guó)局地和區(qū)域地震海嘯源的震源參數(shù)估計(jì);以局地潛在海嘯源的震級(jí)上限作為其最危險(xiǎn)案例進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬,分析海嘯波對(duì)我國(guó)沿海地區(qū)的最大影響,給出了各局地海嘯源對(duì)沿海地區(qū)的有效影響范圍,以確定各局地海嘯源的數(shù)值模擬計(jì)算范圍。(2)PTHA關(guān)鍵方法完善。選取廣東大亞灣3個(gè)場(chǎng)點(diǎn),采用傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法計(jì)算各場(chǎng)點(diǎn)對(duì)于不同海嘯波高的超越概率,以示例揭示傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法存在以下不足:震級(jí)分檔的不連續(xù)性引起目標(biāo)場(chǎng)點(diǎn)海嘯波高分布的離散性;未考慮各潛在海嘯源內(nèi)地震發(fā)生位置的空間隨機(jī)性;不能合理考慮PTHA結(jié)果的不確定性。針對(duì)這些問(wèn)題提出了一種基于蒙特卡洛技術(shù)的PTHA方法,針對(duì)各潛在海嘯源,對(duì)震級(jí)和震中位置進(jìn)行多次隨機(jī)采樣,以此替代傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法中震級(jí)分檔環(huán)節(jié)。最后采用新方法計(jì)算了上述3個(gè)場(chǎng)點(diǎn)的不同海嘯波高的超越概率,對(duì)比采用傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法的計(jì)算結(jié)果說(shuō)明新方法可以較好地完善傳統(tǒng)方法存在的不足之處。(3)PTHA參數(shù)敏感性分析。以中國(guó)南海為研究對(duì)象,以馬尼拉海溝俯沖區(qū)為潛在震源區(qū),選取常用的SRTM、ETOPO、GEBCO三種水深數(shù)據(jù),研究不同數(shù)據(jù)源的水深數(shù)據(jù)差異性以及數(shù)據(jù)自身誤差對(duì)于地震海嘯數(shù)值模擬的敏感性。結(jié)果表明在開(kāi)闊的外海海域,不同數(shù)據(jù)源之間的水深數(shù)據(jù)差異對(duì)于海嘯數(shù)值模擬的影響可忽略;水深數(shù)據(jù)自身誤差對(duì)于數(shù)值模擬的海嘯波幅值影響不明顯,但對(duì)于其相位存在一定影響。得到如下結(jié)論:在大網(wǎng)格(低精度)計(jì)算環(huán)境下,海洋水深數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)于海嘯波高數(shù)值模擬的敏感性是較輕微的,目前開(kāi)放的水深數(shù)據(jù)可滿足海嘯傳播數(shù)值模擬的需要。(4)編制我國(guó)地震海嘯危險(xiǎn)性圖。采用本文提出的基于蒙特卡洛技術(shù)的PTHA方法,對(duì)我國(guó)東南沿海地區(qū)沿海岸線1480個(gè)場(chǎng)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行PTHA計(jì)算,數(shù)值模擬了2個(gè)區(qū)域潛在海嘯源和8個(gè)局地潛在海嘯源的640個(gè)海嘯案例,得到了這些場(chǎng)點(diǎn)的海嘯波高分布。最終繪制了東南沿海地區(qū)海嘯波高1m、2m、3m、4m、5m以1年、10年、50年、100年為周期的超越概率分布圖以及波高1m、2m、3m、4m、5m的重現(xiàn)期分布圖。
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, the population of the coastal areas of China has gathered, developed and convenient, but compared to the inland, the coastal area has the danger of the tsunami. In recent years, the tsunami hazard analysis work in the coastal areas has been gradually carried out, and most of the qualitative results are given by the deterministic analysis method. The main reason is that the key steps and links of the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) need to be improved and the key problems still need to be effectively solved. Therefore, this paper focuses on the key parameters of PTHA, the improvement of the key PTHA methods, the sensitivity analysis of PTHA parameters, and the final compilation of the earthquake and tsunami in China. The main work is as follows: (1) the determination of the key parameters of PTHA. On the basis of summarizing the empirical relations between several commonly used magnitudes, the length of the fault, the width and the slip amount, by comparing their applicable magnitude range, the application of the area and the current situation, and the real relationship with several destructive tsunamis occurring in recent years. The real seismic source parameters determine the estimation of the source parameters of the empirical formula for the thrust fault, such as Papazachos, which is more suitable for the local and regional seismic tsunami sources in our country. The upper limit of the magnitude of the local potential tsunami source is used as the most dangerous case to simulate the maximum impact of the tsunami wave on the coastal areas of our country, and the local tsunamis are given. The effective range of the source to the coastal area is to determine the numerical simulation range of the local tsunami sources. (2) the key method of PTHA is perfect. The 3 sites in Dayawan, Guangdong, and the traditional PTHA method are used to calculate the transcendental probability of the different tsunami wave heights by the traditional method, and the following shortcomings of the traditional PTHA method are revealed. Continuity causes the dispersion of the height distribution of the tsunami wave in the target field; it does not consider the spatial randomness of the location of the earthquake in each potential tsunami source; the uncertainty of the PTHA results can not be considered reasonably. A PTHA method based on Monte Carlo technology is proposed for these problems, and the magnitude and location of the epicentre are more for each potential tsunami source. Sub random sampling is used to replace the magnitude division of the traditional PTHA method. Finally, a new method is used to calculate the transcendental probability of the different tsunami wave heights of the above 3 sites. Compared with the traditional PTHA method, the new method can better improve the shortcomings of the traditional methods. (3) the sensitivity analysis of PTHA parameters. The South China Sea is the research object, taking the Manila trench subduction area as the potential source area, selecting three kinds of water depth data of common SRTM, ETOPO and GEBCO, to study the difference of water depth data from different data sources and the sensitivity of data self error to seismic tsunami numerical simulation. The results show that water between different data sources is in open sea area. The influence of deep data difference on the tsunami numerical simulation can be neglected; the self error of water depth data has no obvious influence on the amplitude of the numerical simulation, but it has a certain influence on its phase. The following conclusion is drawn: under the large grid (low precision) computing environment, the sea depth data is less sensitive to the tsunami wave height numerical simulation. At present, the open water depth data can meet the needs of the numerical simulation of tsunami propagation. (4) compile the seismic and tsunami hazard map of our country. By using the PTHA method based on Monte Carlo technology proposed in this paper, the PTHA calculation is carried out along the coastline of the southeast coastal areas of China, and the potential tsunami sources and 8 local areas in 2 regions are numerically simulated. The 640 tsunami cases of potential tsunami source have obtained the distribution of tsunami wave height in these sites. Finally, we draw the map of the transcendental probability distribution of the tsunami wave height 1m, 2m, 3M, 4m, 5m for 1, 10, 50, 100 years in the southeast coastal region, as well as the heavy current distribution map of the wave height 1m, 2m, 3M, 4m, 5m.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地震局工程力學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P731.25

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號(hào)：2010921