本文選題：福建海岸 + 海岸侵蝕管理　； 參考：《中國海洋大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：本文以海洋地球科學理論和災害經濟學理論為指導，結合現代綜合評價方法，應用層次分析法、模糊集理論和地理信息技術等手段，在野外調查、文獻調研和專家咨詢的基礎上，將定性分析和定量運算相結合，理論研究和實際應用相結合，對構建海岸侵蝕風險評價模型進行研究，主要取得了以下幾點認識： （1）考慮地質環(huán)境因素和社會經濟因素，通過專家咨詢選取13個評價指標合成海岸侵蝕風險，建立了中國海岸侵蝕風險評價指標體系。這些指標分別是易蝕性、岸線演化、平均波高、相對海平面變化、城鎮(zhèn)化水平、風暴增水、潮差、人口密度、地區(qū)生產總值、海域等別、地方財政收入、海岸防護能力和土地使用與土地覆被變化等。 （2）構建了基于層次分析法和模糊集理論的海岸侵蝕風險評價模型。確定了各個評價指標的權重，對于隱形侵蝕危險性，易損性權重最大為0.5065，其次是岸線演化水平、平均波高、相對海平面變化，城鎮(zhèn)化水平貢獻最��；對于顯現侵蝕危險性，易損性亦是貢獻最大，權重為0.6845，風暴增水和潮差影響相對較��；對于暴露性，人口密度貢獻最大，，權重為0.6033，超過地區(qū)生產總值和海域等別權重總和；海岸防護能力對綜合減災能力最直接的影響，權重為0.5844，地方財政收入和土地使用/覆被變化所占比列相當。通過反復試驗和對比，確定了模糊集理論的正態(tài)型隸屬函數，并作出隸屬函數圖像，解釋了隸屬度的意義。 （3）根據海岸侵蝕風險等級評價結果，參照同類合并和優(yōu)勢突出的原則，對福建省23個評價單元進行海岸侵蝕風險區(qū)劃并編繪福建省海岸侵蝕風險區(qū)劃圖。福建省沿岸劃分成5級風險區(qū)，即很低風險區(qū)、低風險區(qū)、中等風險區(qū)、高風險區(qū)和很高風險區(qū)；從北到南總共區(qū)劃出14個風險區(qū)段，其中很低風險區(qū)1段、低風險區(qū)5段、中等風險區(qū)3段、高風險區(qū)3段、很高風險區(qū)2段。結果表明，本文構建的海岸侵蝕風險評價模型能適用于福建海岸侵蝕風險評價，海岸侵蝕風險區(qū)劃結果能清楚地表達各個評價單元的風險差異。由分析討論可知，海岸侵蝕風險等級和區(qū)劃結果符合福建海岸侵蝕現狀并具有一定的預測和指導意義。 （4）根據我國海岸侵蝕類型，結合實地考察和理論論證采取不同的海岸侵蝕防護措施。砂礫質海岸侵蝕應以護灘工程為主，輔以護岸工程；軟巖海岸侵蝕以護岸工程防護為主；淤泥質海岸侵蝕應以護岸工程為主，輔以護灘工程；亞熱帶熱帶的生物海岸侵蝕則以適應性工程適宜；海岸工程侵蝕是一類特殊的海岸侵蝕類型，對于這類海岸侵蝕應以源頭治理為主，即要禁止不合理的海岸工程建設，同時對已存在工程造成的侵蝕加強防治。
[Abstract]:Guided by the theory of marine earth science and the theory of disaster economics, combined with modern comprehensive evaluation method, this paper applies analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy set theory and geographic information technology to investigate in the field. On the basis of literature investigation and expert consultation, this paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative calculation, theoretical research and practical application to study the construction of coastal erosion risk assessment model. 1) considering geological environmental factors and social economic factors, 13 evaluation indexes were selected through expert consultation to synthesize coastal erosion risk, and the evaluation index system of coastal erosion risk in China was established. These indicators are erodibility, shoreline evolution, average wave height, relative sea level change, urbanization level, windsurges, tidal range, population density, regional GDP, sea area, etc., local revenue, etc. Coastal protection capacity and land use and land cover change, etc. (2) A model of coastal erosion risk assessment based on AHP and fuzzy set theory is established. The weight of each evaluation index is determined. For invisible erosion risk, vulnerability weight is the largest 0.5065, followed by shoreline evolution level, average wave height, relative sea level change, urbanization level contribution is the least. Vulnerability is also the biggest contribution, the weight is 0.6845, the impact of windburst and tidal range is relatively small, for exposure, the population density contribution is the largest, the weight is 0.6033, which exceeds the total weight of regional GDP and sea area. The most direct effect of coastal protection capacity on comprehensive disaster reduction capacity is 0.5844, and the ratio of local fiscal revenue and land use / cover change is equal. Through repeated experiments and comparisons, the normal membership function of fuzzy set theory is determined, and the image of membership function is made, and the significance of membership degree is explained. 3) according to the evaluation results of coastal erosion risk grade and referring to the principle of similar combination and superiority, the coastal erosion risk regionalization of 23 evaluation units in Fujian Province is carried out and the coastal erosion risk zoning map of Fujian Province is drawn up. The coast of Fujian Province is divided into Grade 5 risk areas, that is, very low risk areas, medium risk areas, high risk areas and very high risk areas. A total of 14 risk zones are zoned from the north to the south, of which 1 is the very low risk area and 5 is the low risk area. Middle risk area 3, high risk area 3, very high risk area 2. The results show that the coastal erosion risk assessment model constructed in this paper can be used to evaluate the coastal erosion risk in Fujian Province, and the results of coastal erosion risk zoning can clearly express the risk differences of each evaluation unit. From the analysis and discussion, it can be seen that the grade of coastal erosion risk and the result of regionalization accord with the present situation of coastal erosion in Fujian Province and have certain prediction and guiding significance. 4) according to the types of coastal erosion in China, combined with field investigation and theoretical demonstration, different coastal erosion protection measures are adopted. Sand and gravel coastal erosion should be dominated by beach protection works, supplemented by bank protection works, coastal erosion of soft rock should be mainly protected by bank protection works, and silt coast erosion should be mainly bank revetment works, supplemented by beach protection works. Coastal engineering erosion is a special type of coastal erosion. For this kind of coastal erosion, it should be controlled mainly by source, that is to say, it is necessary to prohibit unreasonable coastal engineering construction. At the same time, the erosion caused by existing projects should be prevented.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P737.1

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