本文選題：瓊州海峽 + Copula函數(shù)　； 參考：《海洋工程》2017年02期

【摘要】：基于�？谡�1976~1997年逐時(shí)潮位和逐日最大風(fēng)速資料,利用阿基米德Copula函數(shù)構(gòu)建海口年最大增水與相應(yīng)日期最大風(fēng)速的聯(lián)合概率分布模型。結(jié)果表明:1)廣義極值分布可作為�？谡灸曜畲笤鏊拖鄳�(yīng)日期最大風(fēng)速的邊緣分布。兩個(gè)序列之間存在強(qiáng)正相關(guān)關(guān)系,G-H Copula函數(shù)更適用于作為�？谡灸曜畲笤鏊拖鄳�(yīng)日期的最大風(fēng)速聯(lián)合概率分布的連接函數(shù)。2)兩變量聯(lián)合作用的同頻率增水高度設(shè)計(jì)值與增水的單變量邊緣分布設(shè)計(jì)值之間的相對(duì)差值約為7.5%。3)條件概率1(P(Y≥y|X≥x))中同頻率的年最大增水和相應(yīng)風(fēng)速的遭遇概率介于78.2%~80.9%,條件概率2(P(Y≥y|X≤x))中同頻率的年最大增水和相應(yīng)風(fēng)速兩者的遭遇概率小于4.8%。
[Abstract]:Based on the hourly tidal level and daily maximum wind speed data of Haikou station from 1976 to 1997, the joint probability distribution model of the maximum annual water increase and the maximum wind speed at the corresponding date is constructed by using Archimedes Copula function. The results show that the generalized extreme value distribution can be regarded as the marginal distribution of the maximum annual increase in water and the maximum wind speed at the corresponding date at Haikou station. There is a strong positive correlation between the two sequences. G-H Copula function is more suitable for the same frequency increase height of the joint action of two variables as the joint probability distribution of the maximum annual water increment and the maximum wind speed at the Haikou station at the corresponding date. The relative difference between the calculated value and the design value of the single variable edge distribution of increasing water is about 7.5. 3) in the conditional probability of 1(P(Y 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：1803187