本文選題：海表面溫度　切入點：海洋平流熱輸運　出處：《中國海洋大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：本文依據(jù)兩種不同的觀測數(shù)據(jù)：原始觀測數(shù)據(jù)（HadSST3）和重構(gòu)的觀測數(shù)據(jù)(HadISST1)，以及耦合模式比較計劃（CMIP5, the fifth phase of the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project）中的八個模式數(shù)據(jù)，并與青島和上海氣象臺觀測的氣溫數(shù)據(jù)相比較，研究了中國近海海表溫度（SST）過去百年的變化趨勢，探討了上世紀后20年SST年代際變化成因，預估了未來SST變化趨勢。得到如下具有一定創(chuàng)新性的成果： 依據(jù)HadSST3數(shù)據(jù)，過去100多年（1900-2006）中國近海SST的變化趨勢為0.8oC，在東海要比南海高達1oC，整個中國近海SST長期變化的趨勢最大出現(xiàn)在福建省沿岸，臺灣海峽以西海域冬季可達1.8oC。冬季SST的增暖趨勢比夏季高。盡管依據(jù)HadSST1數(shù)據(jù)得到的SST變化趨勢也具備冬季大于夏季的特點，但與上海、青島氣象臺觀測氣溫的變化趨勢對比，證明HadSST1數(shù)據(jù)在重構(gòu)的過程中出現(xiàn)誤差。依據(jù)兩種數(shù)據(jù)中國近海SST都出現(xiàn)1999年后增溫停滯現(xiàn)象。 盡管八個氣候模式的模擬結(jié)果中，中國近海在1900-2006年都有SST增暖的現(xiàn)象，但主要表現(xiàn)為上世紀后20年增暖明顯，增暖大約在0.4oC/20年左右。東中國海（尤其是東海黑潮區(qū)），SST升高的主要原因是海洋平流熱輸送的增加，這與太平洋年代際變化有密切的聯(lián)系；在南海南部，在SST上升的同時，大氣調(diào)整導致的感熱與潛熱釋放減少是SST增暖的主要原因；在南海北部，SST持續(xù)上升是海面長波輻射減少，大氣調(diào)整導致潛熱釋放減少和黑潮加強導致的熱輸送加強這3個因素共同作用的結(jié)果。 在RCP4.5的排放情景下，整個中國近海SST從2006年到2055年增長1oC左右。SST持續(xù)升溫的主要原因是對應(yīng)的大氣調(diào)整導致大氣潛熱釋放的減少。 以上對比分析證明了中國近海SST在年代際時間尺度上的變化主要取決于海洋動力過程帶來的熱平流效應(yīng)，而作為對溫室氣體強迫響應(yīng)的SST長期持續(xù)增溫主要是由于大氣調(diào)整導致的海面熱通量的變化。
[Abstract]:Based on two different observational data: the original observation data (HadSST3) and the reconstructed observation data (Hadis ST1), and the eight model data in the coupled mode comparison plan (CMIP5, the fifth phase of the CoupledModel Intercomparison projects), Compared with the temperature data observed by Qingdao and Shanghai Meteorological Observatory, the variation trend of sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China over the past 100 years is studied, and the causes of decadal variation of SST in the 20 years after 0th century are discussed. The trends of SST changes in the future are forecasted. Some innovative results are obtained as follows:. According to HadSST3 data, in the past 100 years or so, the variation trend of SST in China's offshore waters is 0.8 OC, which is as high as 1 OC in the East China Sea than in the South China Sea. The trend of long-term variation of SST in the whole offshore China is the largest along the coast of Fujian Province. The warming trend of SST in winter is higher than that in summer. Although the variation trend of SST obtained from HadSST1 data is larger in winter than in summer, it is compared with that observed by Shanghai and Qingdao meteorological stations. It is proved that there are errors in the process of reconstruction of HadSST1 data. According to the two kinds of data, the SST in offshore China appears the phenomenon of warming stagnation after 1999. Although SST warming occurred in the coastal waters of China from 1900 to 2006 in the simulated results of the eight climate models, it mainly showed that the warming was obvious in the 20 years after 0th century. The increase of SST in the East China Sea (especially in the Kuroshio area of the East China Sea) is mainly due to the increase of ocean advection heat transport, which is closely related to the Interdecadal variation of the Pacific Ocean, while in the south of the South China Sea, the SST is rising at the same time. The decrease of sensible heat and latent heat release caused by atmospheric adjustment is the main cause of SST warming, and the continuous rise of SST in the northern South China Sea is the decrease of sea surface long wave radiation. The combined effects of three factors, which are the decrease of latent heat release caused by atmospheric adjustment and the enhancement of heat transport caused by the Kuroshio. Under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the main reason for the increase of SST from 2006 to 2055 is the decrease of atmospheric latent heat release due to the corresponding atmospheric adjustment. The above comparative analysis proves that the variation of SST in China offshore on the Interdecadal time scale mainly depends on the thermal advection effect caused by the ocean dynamic process. As a response to greenhouse gas forcing, the long-term continuous warming of SST is mainly due to the change of sea surface heat flux caused by atmospheric adjustment.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P731.11;P732

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