本文選題：電離層 + 總電子含量�。� 參考：《東華理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版)》2016年S1期

【摘要】：針對電離層總電子含量(total electron content,TEC)序列呈現(xiàn)周期性特征,采用季節(jié)時間序列(seasonal ARIMA,SARIMA)模型對TEC序列進(jìn)行預(yù)報分析。利用JSCORS 2010年的GPS雙頻觀測數(shù)據(jù)計算的VTEC序列為樣本數(shù)據(jù)建立模型,實驗結(jié)果表明:VTEC序列建立合適的季節(jié)ARIMA模型,并運用該模型進(jìn)行短期預(yù)測,預(yù)測值與實測值變化趨勢一致,短期預(yù)報的平均相對精度可達(dá)89%,但預(yù)報精度會隨預(yù)報長度的增加而減小。
[Abstract]:In view of the periodicity of total electron contentTECs in ionosphere, seasonal time series (seasonal Arima) model is used to predict and analyze TEC sequences. The model is established by using the VTEC series calculated from the GPS dual-frequency observation data of JSCORS 2010 as the sample data. The experimental results show that the appropriate seasonal ARIMA model is established by using this model, and the short-term prediction is carried out by using the model, and the predicted values are consistent with the observed values. The average relative accuracy of short term prediction can reach 89%, but the prediction accuracy will decrease with the increase of prediction length.
【作者單位】： 山東電力工程咨詢院有限公司;江西省水利規(guī)劃設(shè)計研究院;江西省水工結(jié)構(gòu)工程技術(shù)中心;
【分類號】：P228.4;P352
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本文編號：1920781