發(fā)布時間：2018-02-11 12:56

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 干旱河谷 邊界波動 演化特征 風(fēng)險管理 岷江上游　出處：《山地學(xué)報》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：在山區(qū)人口迅速增加和社會經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的進(jìn)程中,干旱河谷作為山區(qū)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分之一,承載了嚴(yán)重的被干擾和過度利用。在RS與GIS技術(shù)的支持下,本研究選擇岷江上游干旱河谷作為研究對象,應(yīng)用馬爾科夫預(yù)測法和土地利用動態(tài)變化空間分析測算模型,開展干旱河谷邊界波動的定量判定及其演化特征研究。研究結(jié)果表明:岷江上游干旱河谷區(qū)面積與上邊界在逐年增加,上邊界平均每年沿垂直方向抬升約5 m,在未來較長時間內(nèi),干旱河谷面積的增長趨勢將會越來越強(qiáng);其中,1970至2010年干旱河谷轉(zhuǎn)化速率(TRL_(70-2010))呈現(xiàn)不斷上升趨勢,分別為TRL_(70)=1.44%,TRL_(80)=0.95%,TRL_(90)=2.32%,TRL_(2000)=2.45%,TRL_(2010)=3.59%;1990至2000年期間干旱河谷新增速率(IRL_(90-2000))最大,屬于高速擴(kuò)展期,在1970至1980年期間新增速率IRL_(70-80)最小;1990至2000年期間干旱河谷"敏感性"最高,其年變化速率(CCL_(90-2000))為13.01%,其次為CCL_(2000-2010)=6.51%,其余時期年均變化速率皆在4%左右。本研究結(jié)果可為我國西部災(zāi)害多發(fā)區(qū)聚落合理規(guī)劃、災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理、人口合理分布與再調(diào)整提供重要的科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In the mountain population is increasing rapidly and the rapid development of society and economy in the process of dry valley as an important part of the ecosystem of mountainous area, carrying serious interference and excessive use. In the RS with the support of GIS technology, this research chooses the upper reaches of Minjiang River as the research object, the application of Markoff method and land use dynamic change of spatial analysis model, study and evolution characteristics of quantitative analysis in the dry valley boundary fluctuation. The results show that the area of the upper reaches of Minjiang River area and the upper boundary in the upper boundary of the average annual increase year by year, along the vertical direction of uplift is about 5 m, a long time in the future, the arid valley area growth trend will become increasingly strong among them, 1970 to 2010; dry valley conversion rate (TRL_ (70-2010)) showed a rising trend, respectively TRL_ (70) =1.44%, TRL_ (80) =0.95%, TRL_ (90) =2.32%, TRL_ (2000) =2.45%, TRL_ (2010) =3.59%; during the period from 1990 to 2000 the new rate of dry valley (IRL_ (90-2000)), belongs to the high speed period of expansion, the new rate of IRL_ during the period from 1970 to 1980 (minimum 70-80); 1990 to 2000 during the dry valley "sensitive" highest, the annual change rate (CCL_ (90-2000)) was 13.01%, followed by CCL_ (2000-2010) =6.51%, the rest period is approximately 4% in average annual change rate. The results of this study can be reasonable planning for the settlement of Western disaster prone area, disaster risk management, population distribution and re adjustment provide important scientific basis.

【作者單位】： 西南科技大學(xué)環(huán)境與資源學(xué)院;重慶市彭水苗族土家族自治縣水務(wù)局;
【基金】：四川省青年科技基金項目(2017JQ0051) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41371185) 教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究專項任務(wù)項目(工程科技人才培養(yǎng)研究)(15JDGC019)~~
【分類號】：F301.2;P208;P237

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本文編號：1503112