【摘要】：人防物資庫(kù)在和平時(shí)期可作為應(yīng)急物資庫(kù)使用,而在各種自然災(zāi)害中,地震這一突發(fā)自然災(zāi)害對(duì)國(guó)家公共安全有極大的危害,其突發(fā)性、破壞性、社會(huì)影響性大等特點(diǎn)都使得地震的應(yīng)急救援變得尤其重要,從地震的防御到震后的救援工作及保障工作的展開(kāi)都是有效減少人員傷亡、減輕生命財(cái)產(chǎn)損失、安定民心的有效途徑。從地震災(zāi)害的歷史救援經(jīng)驗(yàn)中我們可以知道,震后的72小時(shí)是救援的黃金時(shí)期,也是震后搶險(xiǎn)救災(zāi)的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,尤其在余震不斷、環(huán)境復(fù)雜等因素的制約下,在這段期間內(nèi)如何快速進(jìn)行現(xiàn)場(chǎng)救援、提高救援率、如何分配物資人員裝備,更多的救助生命成為重中之重,也是現(xiàn)在地震研究的首要問(wèn)題。目前,對(duì)地震應(yīng)急救援的研究大部分集中在應(yīng)急預(yù)案的制定及應(yīng)急預(yù)案操作性等問(wèn)題上,傳統(tǒng)方法使用較多,且對(duì)其策略的研究相對(duì)較少。對(duì)將多Agent建模仿真應(yīng)用到地震應(yīng)急救援策略中的研究方面相對(duì)較少,基于此本文針對(duì)地震應(yīng)急救援的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)救援和后勤物資保障階段分別進(jìn)行場(chǎng)景描述、分析,然后應(yīng)用多Agent方法對(duì)地震應(yīng)急救援進(jìn)行建模,根據(jù)地震應(yīng)急救援的各個(gè)影響因素及特點(diǎn),將現(xiàn)場(chǎng)救援具化為救援Agent、被救援Agent、余震Agent,將后勤物資保障具化為車輛Agent、物資庫(kù)Agent、災(zāi)區(qū)Agent,確定其模型結(jié)構(gòu),賦予每個(gè)Agent目應(yīng)的動(dòng)作及行為規(guī)則,并定義各個(gè)Agent之間的交互規(guī)則,在多Agent仿真工具Repast S中用java語(yǔ)言對(duì)各個(gè)Agent進(jìn)行實(shí)現(xiàn),對(duì)仿真參數(shù)進(jìn)行設(shè)置并分析多次實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果,通過(guò)不同實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果的比較得出其人員配備、物資配給等地震應(yīng)急救援策略,以使救援速度最快、救援率最高,從而為以后地震應(yīng)急救援的預(yù)測(cè)和決策支持提供理論參考。
[Abstract]:Civil air defense stores can be used as emergency stores in peacetime. Among all kinds of natural disasters, earthquake, a sudden natural disaster, is extremely harmful to the public safety of the country, and it is sudden and destructive. The characteristics of great social influence make the emergency rescue of earthquake become particularly important. From earthquake prevention to rescue work after the earthquake and the development of support work, it is effective to reduce casualties and reduce the loss of life and property. An effective way to stabilize the people's mind. From the historical rescue experience of earthquake disasters, we can see that the 72 hours after the earthquake is the golden period of rescue and the key period of post-earthquake rescue and relief, especially under the constraints of the continuous aftershocks and the complex environment. During this period, how to carry out the field rescue quickly, how to improve the rescue rate, how to distribute the material personnel and equipment, and how to save more lives become the top priority, which is also the most important problem in the earthquake research. At present, most of the researches on earthquake emergency rescue are focused on the formulation of emergency plan and the operation of emergency plan. The traditional methods are used more frequently, and the research on its strategy is relatively less. The research on the application of multi-Agent modeling and simulation to earthquake emergency rescue strategy is relatively few. Based on this, the scene description and analysis of the scene rescue and logistics material support stage of earthquake emergency rescue are carried out respectively in this paper. Then the multi-Agent method is used to model the earthquake emergency rescue, and according to the influence factors and characteristics of earthquake emergency rescue, The scene rescue equipment is transformed into the rescue agent, the aftershock agent, the logistic material support is transformed into the vehicle, the material store, the disaster area, the model structure is determined, the action and behavior rules are assigned to each Agent, and the interaction rules between each Agent are defined. In the Agent simulation tool Repast S, the java language is used to implement each Agent. The simulation parameters are set up and the experimental results are analyzed several times. Through the comparison of different experimental results, the earthquake emergency rescue strategies such as staffing, material allocation and so on are obtained. In order to make the rescue speed the fastest and the rescue rate the highest, this paper provides a theoretical reference for the prediction and decision support of earthquake emergency rescue in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：冶金自動(dòng)化研究設(shè)計(jì)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TP18;P315.9

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本文編號(hào)：2131820