發(fā)布時間：2019-05-23 00:22

【摘要】：為了監(jiān)控過程中的方便快捷,常會略去設(shè)計參數(shù)敏感性分析及其修正過程,導(dǎo)致灰色理論模型調(diào)整施工誤差時不能符合預(yù)測要求,需要對該模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。將馬爾科夫鏈應(yīng)用于預(yù)測誤差的殘差序列中,對該序列再預(yù)測。結(jié)合日蘭高速公路梁山連接線鄆城新河大橋主橋施工控制的具體實踐,通過模型計算的預(yù)測值與實測值進(jìn)行對比,應(yīng)用馬爾科夫殘差GM(1,1)修正預(yù)測誤差。分析結(jié)果表明:該方法在施工控制中安全可行,該實際工程滿足合龍精度的要求,成橋線形逼近設(shè)計線形。
[Abstract]:In order to be convenient and fast in the monitoring process, the sensitivity analysis of design parameters and its correction process are often omitted, which leads to the grey theoretical model can not meet the prediction requirements when adjusting the construction error, so the model needs to be improved. Markov chain is applied to the residual sequence of prediction error, and the sequence is re-predicted. Combined with the concrete practice of construction control of Yuncheng Xinhe Bridge on Liangshan connection Line of Rilan Expressway, the prediction value calculated by the model is compared with the measured value, and the Markov residual GM (1, 1) is used to correct the prediction error. The analysis results show that the method is safe and feasible in construction control, and the actual project meets the requirements of closure accuracy, and the bridge alignment approximates the design alignment.
【作者單位】： 山東大學(xué)土建與水利學(xué)院;
【分類號】：U445.4

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