【摘要】：現(xiàn)代人類社會(huì)的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)及生活等活動(dòng),都與汽車有著緊密的聯(lián)系。汽車在帶給人類舒適和便捷交通等正面效應(yīng)的同時(shí),也帶來(lái)了道路交通事故等負(fù)面效應(yīng)。隨著道路交通事故日趨增多特別是汽車與行人事故,不但威脅著人們的生命安全還造成巨額經(jīng)濟(jì)損失以及民事糾紛等。因此,對(duì)汽車與行人事故的研究就顯得至關(guān)重要。汽車與行人碰撞事故是我國(guó)交通事故的主要類型,該類型事故致死率極高且與人們的安全出行密切相關(guān),受到民眾的廣泛關(guān)注。但傳統(tǒng)的事故分析方法在此類事故的處理上存在很大困難。事故再現(xiàn)是交通事故處理的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),也是交通安全領(lǐng)域的一個(gè)重點(diǎn)研究?jī)?nèi)容。本文以道路交通事故中汽車與行人碰撞事故為研究對(duì)象,以事故車速估算方法為研究目的,針對(duì)基于行人第一落地點(diǎn)拋距的事故車速預(yù)估模型的不確定因素,運(yùn)用不確定度理論和Pc-Crash仿真軟件以及MATLAB仿真平臺(tái)對(duì)事故車速的預(yù)估模型展開相關(guān)研究。主要工作包括以下兩點(diǎn):在相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了基于行人第一落點(diǎn)拋距的事故車速預(yù)估模型;運(yùn)用仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)和實(shí)際案例,把本文提出的事故車速計(jì)算方法與現(xiàn)有幾種事故車速估計(jì)方法、Pc-Crash軟件仿真速度方法作對(duì)比,驗(yàn)證了本文提出的事故車速預(yù)估模型的有效性;并通過MATLAB仿真平臺(tái)分析了行人拋出角、道路坡度及道路臺(tái)階高度對(duì)模型中事故車速值的影響。針對(duì)提出的車速預(yù)估模型,運(yùn)用不確定度理論對(duì)各參數(shù)的不確定度和事故車速計(jì)算結(jié)果的不確定度進(jìn)行了評(píng)定,得到事故車速最優(yōu)取值范圍,提高了本文建立的事故車速預(yù)估模型在參數(shù)無(wú)法精確獲取時(shí)車速計(jì)算的精度;最后運(yùn)用MATLAB數(shù)值校核、基于拋距的經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ汀c-Crash軟件仿真驗(yàn)證了本文建立的事故車速預(yù)估模型和不確定度評(píng)定方法在車速估計(jì)中應(yīng)用的可靠性及有效性。
[Abstract]:The political, economic and life activities of modern human society are closely related to the automobile. As well as positive effects, such as comfortable and convenient traffic, automobile also brings negative effects such as road traffic accidents. With the increasing number of road traffic accidents, especially automobile and pedestrian accidents, which not only threaten people's lives, but also cause huge economic losses and civil disputes. Therefore, the study of automobile and pedestrian accidents is very important. Vehicle and pedestrian collision accidents are the main types of traffic accidents in China. The fatality rate of these accidents is very high and is closely related to people's safe travel. However, the traditional accident analysis method is very difficult to deal with this kind of accident. Accident reappearance is a key link in traffic accident handling and a key research content in traffic safety field. In this paper, the vehicle and pedestrian collision accident in road traffic accident is taken as the research object, and the method of estimating the speed of the accident is used as the research purpose, aiming at the uncertain factors of the prediction model of the accident speed based on the throwing distance of the first drop place of the pedestrian. Using uncertainty theory, Pc-Crash simulation software and MATLAB simulation platform, the prediction model of accident speed is studied. The main work includes the following two aspects: on the basis of the related research, an accident speed prediction model based on the first drop distance of pedestrian is established; By using the simulation experiments and practical cases, this paper compares the calculation method of accident speed with several existing methods of accident speed estimation and the simulation speed method of Pc-Crash software, and verifies the validity of the proposed model. The effects of pedestrian throw angle, road slope and step height on the speed of accident in the model are analyzed by MATLAB simulation platform. The uncertainty of the parameters and the calculation result of the accident speed are evaluated by using the uncertainty theory, and the optimal range of the accident speed is obtained. The accuracy of the vehicle speed prediction model established in this paper is improved when the parameters can not be accurately obtained. Finally, based on the empirical model of throw distance, the reliability and validity of the accident speed prediction model and the uncertainty evaluation method are verified by using the MATLAB numerical verification method and the Pc-Crash software simulation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491.31

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