【摘要】：能源作為人們生產(chǎn)、生活的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),直接制約著一個(gè)國(guó)家國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展水平,能源的發(fā)展問(wèn)題成為一個(gè)國(guó)家、一個(gè)地區(qū)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。而目前能源的發(fā)展與環(huán)境保護(hù)之間的矛盾日益突出,節(jié)能減排被納入國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的中長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃。交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)作為基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè),它依托于能源的發(fā)展,成為六大能源消耗產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)之一,在促進(jìn)區(qū)域社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)也使得人們的出行越來(lái)越便捷,但它驚人的增長(zhǎng)速度也為能源和環(huán)境造成巨大的負(fù)擔(dān)。旅客運(yùn)輸作為整個(gè)交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,其節(jié)能減排根本目標(biāo)是以最低的能耗完成最大的旅客運(yùn)輸需求。為實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)的節(jié)能減排,本文以區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗作為研究對(duì)象,對(duì)客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制進(jìn)行分析,分析客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗的增長(zhǎng)與各驅(qū)動(dòng)因素之間的關(guān)系,為客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗的控制方法提供依據(jù)。本文將系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)與區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗相結(jié)合,按照系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的建模步驟建立區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗的SD模型,對(duì)區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗進(jìn)行全面分析。首先,論文在深入分析區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)外在驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制的基礎(chǔ)上,辨別出區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗的影響因素;其次,通過(guò)對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口數(shù)量、運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu)、能耗結(jié)構(gòu)、能耗強(qiáng)度等因素與區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗之間因果關(guān)系的分析,利用Vensim軟件,建立區(qū)域客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗的SD模型;最后,以陜西省為例進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,利用陜西省歷史數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)所建模型進(jìn)行模型檢驗(yàn),并通過(guò)情景分析法,對(duì)各影響因素設(shè)定不同的情景,定量分析各因素的變化對(duì)客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)總能耗的影響,最終找到降低客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗的有效控制方法,為陜西省客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能耗的降低提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Energy, as the material basis of people's production and life, directly restricts the development level of a country's national economy. The development of energy has become the focus of attention of a country and a region. At present, the contradiction between energy development and environmental protection is increasingly prominent, energy saving and emission reduction are included in the medium and long term planning of national economic development. As a basic industry, transportation industry, relying on the development of energy, has become one of the six major energy consumption industries. It promotes the development of regional social economy and makes people travel more and more convenient. But its astonishing growth rate also places a huge burden on energy and the environment. Passenger transport as an important part of the whole transportation system, its basic goal of energy saving and emission reduction is to achieve the maximum passenger transport demand with the lowest energy consumption. In order to realize the energy saving and emission reduction of the regional passenger transport system, this paper takes the energy consumption of the regional passenger transport system as the research object, analyzes the driving mechanism of the energy consumption growth of the passenger transport system, and analyzes the relationship between the increase of the energy consumption of the passenger transport system and the various driving factors. It provides the basis for the control method of energy consumption of passenger transportation system. This paper combines the system dynamics with the energy consumption of regional passenger transport system, establishes the SD model of regional passenger transport system energy consumption according to the modeling steps of system dynamics, and makes a comprehensive analysis of regional passenger transport system energy consumption. Firstly, on the basis of deeply analyzing the internal and external driving mechanism of regional passenger transport system energy consumption growth, the paper distinguishes the influencing factors of regional passenger transport system energy consumption. Secondly, by analyzing the causal relationship between social economy, population, transportation structure, energy consumption intensity and regional passenger transport system energy consumption, the SD model of regional passenger transport system energy consumption is established by using Vensim software. Finally, take Shaanxi Province as an example to carry on the empirical analysis, uses the Shaanxi Province historical data to carry on the model test, and through the scene analysis method, sets the different situation to each influence factor, Quantitative analysis of the influence of various factors on the total energy consumption of passenger transport system, finally find the effective control method to reduce the energy consumption of passenger transport system, and provide the basis for the reduction of energy consumption of passenger transport system in Shaanxi Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U111

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本文編號(hào)：2320211