【摘要】：隨著人們?nèi)找骖l繁的貿(mào)易往來(lái)與日常交往活動(dòng)需要,高速公路成為人們經(jīng)常接觸的交通途徑,在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中占有重要地位。隨著高速公路在我國(guó)的興起及越來(lái)越高的使用率,高速公路在給人們帶來(lái)便利性的同時(shí)也帶來(lái)諸多弊端。受到駕駛習(xí)慣、氣候環(huán)境因素、路面狀況、汽車故障等情況的影響,高速公路事故發(fā)生率較高;同時(shí)由于車速較快,一旦發(fā)生事故,其損失往往更大并更難避免。相比于國(guó)外高速公路建設(shè),我國(guó)的高速公路具有節(jié)假日車流量大、事故發(fā)生率路段事故量遞增等特點(diǎn),有必要并且亟需建立一套完善高速公路事故預(yù)防體系與應(yīng)對(duì)措施,最大限度減少高速公路安全隱患以及帶來(lái)的危害與損失。本文依托當(dāng)前高速公路特點(diǎn)分析與安全管理現(xiàn)狀,以天津市域高速公路為研究對(duì)象,對(duì)天津市域高速公路的易發(fā)擁阻點(diǎn)位、多霧路段、多發(fā)危險(xiǎn)路段進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)處理;并根據(jù)交通事故在時(shí)間上、空間上的分布規(guī)律,對(duì)交通事故發(fā)生機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析;在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)天津市域高速公路的當(dāng)前安全管理情況進(jìn)行分析,研究天津市域高速公路交通安全的影響因素,以及路面情況、交通量、天氣情況與交通事故的關(guān)聯(lián)等,提出當(dāng)前天津市域高速公路交通管理體系中存在的不足與漏洞,并提出相應(yīng)的事故預(yù)防機(jī)制。針對(duì)天津市域高速公路預(yù)防管理中存在的管理空白、預(yù)防延遲、措施手段落后等問(wèn)題,提出有效的交通事故預(yù)防機(jī)制是從根本上解決這些問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵。本文以灰色系統(tǒng)理論為基礎(chǔ),針對(duì)天津市域高速公路事故發(fā)生的特點(diǎn),提出交通事故應(yīng)急管理體系框架及交通事故預(yù)測(cè)模型,希望為天津市域高速公路現(xiàn)有的交通事故管理體系提供必要的改革思路,對(duì)當(dāng)前的交通事故預(yù)測(cè)與應(yīng)急管理體系進(jìn)行調(diào)整,從而改善天津市域高速公路安全管理體系現(xiàn)狀,也為我國(guó)高速公路安全管理工作提供有利依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With more and more frequent trade and daily communication activities, expressway has become the traffic way that people often contact, and it plays an important role in the development of social economy. With the rise of freeway in our country and the increasing utilization rate, freeway brings convenience to people and brings many disadvantages at the same time. Due to the influence of driving habits, climate and environment factors, road conditions, vehicle failures, etc., the accident rate of expressway is higher. At the same time, because of the fast speed, once the accident occurs, the loss is often greater and more difficult to avoid. Compared with the expressway construction in foreign countries, the expressway in our country has the characteristics of large traffic volume during holidays, increasing accident rate and so on. It is necessary and urgent to establish a set of measures to improve the accident prevention system of expressway. Reduce the hidden danger of highway safety and the harm and loss to the maximum extent. Based on the analysis of the characteristics and the present situation of safety management of the current expressway, this paper takes Tianjin area expressway as the research object, and carries on the statistical treatment to the vulnerable position, the multi-fog section and the multi-dangerous section of Tianjin area expressway. Based on the distribution of traffic accidents in time and space, the mechanism of traffic accidents is analyzed. This paper studies the influencing factors of traffic safety of Tianjin area expressway, as well as the relationship between road surface condition, traffic volume, weather condition and traffic accident, and points out the shortcomings and loopholes in the current traffic management system of Tianjin area expressway. And put forward the corresponding accident prevention mechanism. In view of the problems such as blank management, delay in prevention and backward measures in the prevention and management of expressway in Tianjin, the key to solve these problems is to put forward an effective traffic accident prevention mechanism. Based on the grey system theory, this paper puts forward the framework of traffic accident emergency management system and the traffic accident prediction model according to the characteristics of expressway accidents in Tianjin. It is hoped that the necessary reform ideas will be provided for the existing traffic accident management system of Tianjin District Expressway, and the current traffic accident prediction and emergency management system will be adjusted to improve the present situation of Tianjin area Expressway Safety Management system. Also provides the advantageous basis for our country highway safety management work.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491.31

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