【摘要】：為了提高公交系統(tǒng)服務(wù)可靠性,濟(jì)南市公交公司已經(jīng)花費(fèi)了大量的物力和財(cái)力來實(shí)施一些最先進(jìn)的運(yùn)輸和通信技術(shù)。在公交系統(tǒng)服務(wù)可靠性方面的進(jìn)步不僅會(huì)給公交系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)營者帶來收益,而且會(huì)極大的方便乘客的出行。公交車準(zhǔn)時(shí)到站率的提高不僅會(huì)減少公交車到站時(shí)間的波動(dòng),從而節(jié)省乘客的等待時(shí)間；而且能夠讓公交車運(yùn)營者在制定時(shí)刻表時(shí)減少額外的緩沖時(shí)間,這樣就可以減少不必要的出車行為,更有效的地利用公交車資源。公交系統(tǒng)服務(wù)可靠性的提高會(huì)減少前后公交車同時(shí)到達(dá)某一站點(diǎn)后者前后兩輛公交車到達(dá)某一站點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)較大的時(shí)間間隔現(xiàn)象的產(chǎn)生,同時(shí)也能減少乘客在站臺(tái)的等待時(shí)間,保證公交車資源能被充分利用。對(duì)于公交車服務(wù)的提供者和乘客來說,公交服務(wù)不可靠帶來的首要問題就是大量不必要的財(cái)政支出。然而,中國的城市路網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)非常復(fù)雜,公交車的運(yùn)行受到其他私家車,自行車和出租車的影響。為了更好的方便人們的出行,市面上出現(xiàn)了很多APP軟件,比如說微步、無線城市掌上公交、彩虹公交等軟件,然而這些軟件的開發(fā)商沒有深入分析公交車的運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù),沒有分析公交車可靠性,所以這些軟件提供的數(shù)據(jù)存在偏差,導(dǎo)致了服務(wù)質(zhì)量的下降。調(diào)查顯示,公交車運(yùn)行時(shí)間可靠性已經(jīng)成為增強(qiáng)城市公交吸引力的重要手段,它不僅左右著人們的出行選擇,還影響公交公司制定調(diào)度表方面的決策。然而,由于受到天氣、道路狀況、時(shí)間、信號(hào)燈綠信比等因素的影響,目前公交車運(yùn)行時(shí)間可靠性還不盡如人意,影響了人們的出行安排。公交車服務(wù)可靠性模型的結(jié)果對(duì)公交車服務(wù)計(jì)劃,制定時(shí)刻表和運(yùn)行控制有很多啟示。因?yàn)楣卉囇舆t變化直接影響乘客的等待時(shí)間,以上結(jié)論對(duì)乘客也有很重要的作用。本文基于濟(jì)南市公交車的GPS數(shù)據(jù),研究了濟(jì)南市公交車運(yùn)行時(shí)間可靠性情況。主要實(shí)現(xiàn)了四個(gè)研究目標(biāo)。第一：探究每個(gè)因素的影響,是如何影響的；第二：研究影響是否顯著(P值),影響程度的大小；第三：根據(jù)公交車運(yùn)行時(shí)間可靠性模型得出政策性的結(jié)論；第四：對(duì)公交車運(yùn)行時(shí)間可靠性做出一定的預(yù)測(cè)。本文首先給出了公交車運(yùn)行時(shí)間可靠性的定義：運(yùn)行時(shí)間的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差率(CV)=標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差／均值,然后采集了三條特征各異的線路在27天的運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù),最后通過預(yù)測(cè)算法得出各個(gè)影響因素的影響權(quán)值與顯著性,得出政策性的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the reliability of public transport system, Jinan bus Company has spent a lot of material and financial resources to implement some of the most advanced transportation and communication technology. The progress in the reliability of public transport system will not only bring benefits to the operators, but also greatly facilitate the travel of passengers. The increase in on-time bus arrival will not only reduce the fluctuation of bus arrival time, thus saving passengers waiting time, but also allow bus operators to reduce the extra buffer time when they set their timetables. This can reduce unnecessary driving behavior, more effective use of bus resources. The improvement of bus service reliability will reduce the occurrence of large time interval between two buses arriving at a certain station at the same time, and can also reduce the waiting time of passengers at the platform. To ensure that bus resources can be fully utilized. For bus service providers and passengers, the most important problem caused by unreliable bus service is a large amount of unnecessary financial expenditure. However, China's urban road network system is very complex, bus operation is affected by other private cars, bicycles and taxis. In order to make it easier for people to travel, there are many APP software on the market, such as microstep, wireless city palmtop bus, rainbow bus, etc. However, the developers of these software have not analyzed the running data of buses in depth. There is no analysis of bus reliability, so the data provided by the software are biased, leading to a decline in the quality of service. The investigation shows that the reliability of bus running time has become an important means to enhance the attractiveness of urban public transport. It not only affects people's travel choices, but also affects the decision of bus companies to make scheduling tables. However, due to the influence of weather, road condition, time, green signal ratio and so on, the reliability of bus running time is not satisfactory, which affects people's travel arrangements. The results of the bus service reliability model have a lot of implications for bus service planning, scheduling and operation control. Because the change of bus delay directly affects the waiting time of passengers, the above conclusions also play an important role in passengers. Based on the GPS data of Jinan bus, the reliability of bus running time is studied in this paper. Four main research objectives have been achieved. The first is to explore the influence of each factor, the second is to study whether the influence is significant (P value), and the third is to draw the policy conclusion according to the reliability model of bus running time. Fourth, the reliability of bus running time to make a certain prediction. This paper first gives the definition of bus running time reliability: the standard deviation rate of running time (CV) = standard deviation / mean, and then collects the operation data of three different lines in 27 days. Finally, the influence weight and significance of each influencing factor are obtained by the prediction algorithm, and the policy conclusion is drawn.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491.17

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 孫奎利;天津市綠道系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃研究[D];天津大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號(hào)：2270151