【摘要】：隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,與工業(yè)、生活、交通、能源等領(lǐng)域息息相關(guān)的加工原料或輔料的危險(xiǎn)品的需求量不斷上升,與之相對應(yīng)的危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸量不斷攀升。危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸已經(jīng)成為城市以及城市周邊危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸?shù)闹匾绞�。由于城市道路、周邊人口密度大、車流量�?一旦遇到危險(xiǎn)品車輛在運(yùn)輸過程中發(fā)生事故而不能及時(shí)得到控制狀況,道路及周邊范圍內(nèi)可能會引起的群眾傷亡以及對周邊生態(tài)環(huán)境不利現(xiàn)象,繼而導(dǎo)致財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,引起社會恐慌。因此,為了降低事故發(fā)生率、預(yù)防危險(xiǎn)品道路事故發(fā)生,使危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸安全、經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)輸,有必要對危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸模型進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)研究,進(jìn)而對危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化。因此本文從主要從以下幾方面展開:(1)對2005年3月到2015年12月道路危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸事故影響因素、事故的表現(xiàn)形式進(jìn)行了詳盡的分析,并歸納了事故發(fā)生影響因素。(2)對危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸事故表現(xiàn)形式進(jìn)行總結(jié),同時(shí)進(jìn)一步劃分危險(xiǎn)品道路事故影響因素,分別從管理、人、車輛和環(huán)境四個(gè)主要影響因素進(jìn)行分析,其次,對四個(gè)主要危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸事故影響因素細(xì)化,引入粗糙集理論,對導(dǎo)致事故發(fā)生的細(xì)化后的主要影響因素進(jìn)行了主次性分析,從而揭示導(dǎo)致事故影響因素之間的主次性以及重要程度。(3)通過對危險(xiǎn)品事故統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和基于粗糙集理論對主要影響因素的主次性分析,得到道路等因素對危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)劃有著重要的影響,從而考慮在運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中避開事故影響后果大的路段思路,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出避開合成值(合成值為事故影響后果和成本的加權(quán)和)大路段的思路,即在合成值最大路段禁止通行,從而在運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)上建立相應(yīng)的危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸模型,繼而形成考慮避開合成值最大路段的危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)雙層規(guī)劃網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,然后通過算例對模型進(jìn)行可行性驗(yàn)證。(4)在部分路段禁行后的運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)上,本文通過對合成值最大路段收取維護(hù)費(fèi)用方法,即采取經(jīng)濟(jì)干預(yù)方法迫使危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸承運(yùn)人選擇合成值小的路段通行,在此基礎(chǔ)上建立危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸模型,繼而形成考慮政府收取費(fèi)用的危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)雙層規(guī)劃模型,然后通過算例對模型進(jìn)行可行性驗(yàn)證。
[Abstract]:With the steady development of the national economy, the demand for dangerous goods of processing raw materials or auxiliary materials, which are closely related to the fields of industry, life, transportation and energy, has been rising, and the corresponding dangerous goods transport volume has been rising. Road transport of dangerous goods has become an important way of transportation of dangerous goods in cities and surrounding cities. Because of the urban roads, the surrounding population density is high, the traffic flow is large, once encountered dangerous goods vehicles in the course of transportation accidents and can not be controlled in time, The road and its surrounding areas may cause casualties and adverse phenomena to the surrounding ecological environment, resulting in property losses and social panic. Therefore, in order to reduce the incidence of accidents, prevent dangerous goods road accidents, make dangerous goods transport safe and economical, it is necessary to design and study the dangerous goods road transport model, and then optimize the dangerous goods road transport network. Therefore, this paper mainly from the following aspects: (1) from March 2005 to December 2015, road dangerous goods transport accidents affecting factors, the form of the accident is analyzed in detail. And summarized the influencing factors of accidents. (2) summarize the manifestation of road transportation accidents of dangerous goods, and further divide the influencing factors of road accidents of dangerous goods, respectively from the management, people, vehicles and the environment four main factors to analyze. Secondly, the influence factors of the four major dangerous goods transportation accidents are refined, and the rough set theory is introduced to analyze the primary and secondary factors that lead to the refinement of the accidents. In order to reveal the primary and secondary factors leading to accidents and the degree of importance. (3) through the statistical analysis of dangerous goods accidents and the analysis of the primary and secondary factors based on rough set theory, To get the factors such as roads has an important impact on the road transport network planning of dangerous goods, and thus consider avoiding the road links in the transportation network where the consequences of accidents are great. On this basis, the paper puts forward the idea of avoiding the weighted sum of synthetic value (which is the weighted sum of the consequence and cost of accident), that is to say, the road transport model of dangerous goods is established on the transportation network. Then a two-layer network model of dangerous goods transportation network is formed considering avoiding the maximum synthetic value. Then the feasibility of the model is verified by an example. (4) on the transportation network after some road sections are banned, In this paper, the method of collecting maintenance fee for the maximum synthetic value road section is adopted, that is, the economic intervention method is adopted to force the carrier of dangerous goods transport to choose the road passage with small composite value, and on this basis, the road transport model of dangerous goods is established. Then a double-level programming model of dangerous goods road transportation network considering the government charge is formed, and the feasibility of the model is verified by an example.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U492.336.3

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