本文選題：應(yīng)急交通 + 突發(fā)事件　； 參考：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：頻繁發(fā)生的各種自然或人為因素的突發(fā)事件,給人們帶來了無法估計的損失。突發(fā)事件發(fā)生后,只有通過快速、有效的應(yīng)急疏散響應(yīng),才能保證有限時間內(nèi)的有效疏散。因此提前制定科學(xué)、合理的應(yīng)急交通疏散預(yù)案是很有必要的,而應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑是應(yīng)急疏散預(yù)案中重要的組成部分,優(yōu)化應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑對于提高應(yīng)急交通疏散效率,保障人民生命財產(chǎn)安全具有重要意義。本文首先通過分析突發(fā)事件的特點與分類,確定了本文的研究對象為不可預(yù)警的突發(fā)事件。通過對國內(nèi)外應(yīng)急交通疏散相關(guān)理論研究與實踐的分析,總結(jié)了應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑研究現(xiàn)狀的不足與缺陷。從一般路徑優(yōu)化方法出發(fā),指出了應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑優(yōu)化方法的實質(zhì)以及研究方向,并對應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑優(yōu)化中重要影響因素進行了分析,包括突發(fā)事件影響范圍的分析、被疏散者心理與行為特征分析、應(yīng)急交通流特征以及應(yīng)急疏散策略等�；谝陨蠈τ趹�(yīng)急交通疏散特性以及管理策略的分析,對應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑的系統(tǒng)性優(yōu)化從兩個階段進行探討。第一個階段從建立應(yīng)急預(yù)案角度出發(fā),在充分考慮道路交通環(huán)境(等級、線型特征等)、路網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、道路交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施以及疏散路徑可靠性等多方面因素的情況下,分別提出了疏散路徑選擇與疏散路徑指派優(yōu)化模型,并針對路徑選擇模型編寫了C語言程序,實現(xiàn)了路徑選擇的可視化操作。第二個階段是對于突發(fā)事件發(fā)生后的路徑優(yōu)化,首先分析了被疏散者的路徑選擇決策特性,建立了被疏散者的路徑選擇模型;從交通誘導(dǎo)信息對被疏散者的影響機理與作用效果出發(fā),提出如何優(yōu)化被疏散者的路徑選擇,避免由于被疏散者選擇偏好帶來的交通擁堵或疏散道路資源的浪費,從而提高應(yīng)急交通疏散路網(wǎng)效率,實現(xiàn)疏散過程中的疏散路徑優(yōu)化。最后通過綜合案例對本文提出的疏散路徑優(yōu)化方法進行實證分析,結(jié)果表明本文提出的方法對指導(dǎo)實際中的應(yīng)急交通疏散具有一定的實踐意義。通過本文的研究,分別提出了突發(fā)事件發(fā)生前后的應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑優(yōu)化方法,豐富了系統(tǒng)性的應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑研究,有助于制定更為科學(xué)合理的應(yīng)急交通疏散管理政策與組織措施,為應(yīng)急交通疏散的規(guī)劃與管理提供決策與參考。但由于缺乏實際相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),文中所建立模型的部分參數(shù)值采用經(jīng)驗值,有待深入研究。因此,在今后的研究中,需要結(jié)合現(xiàn)實中相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),進一步對應(yīng)急交通疏散路徑選擇、交通信息誘導(dǎo)作用等內(nèi)容進行細致的研究。
[Abstract]:A variety of natural or man-made accidents occur frequently, which bring incalculable losses to people. Only through rapid and effective emergency response can we ensure the effective evacuation in a limited time. Therefore, it is necessary to make a scientific and reasonable emergency traffic evacuation plan in advance, and the emergency traffic evacuation path is an important part of the emergency evacuation plan. Optimizing the emergency traffic evacuation path can improve the efficiency of emergency traffic evacuation. It is of great significance to ensure the safety of people's life and property. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristics and classification of unexpected events, this paper determines that the research object of this paper is unearly-warning emergencies. Based on the theoretical research and practice analysis of emergency traffic evacuation at home and abroad, the deficiency and defect of emergency traffic evacuation path research are summarized. Based on the general route optimization method, this paper points out the essence and research direction of the emergency traffic evacuation route optimization method, and analyzes the important influencing factors in the emergency traffic evacuation path optimization, including the analysis of the impact range of the emergency traffic evacuation path. Psychological and behavioral characteristics of evacuees, emergency traffic flow characteristics and emergency evacuation strategies. Based on the above analysis of emergency traffic evacuation characteristics and management strategy, the systematic optimization of emergency traffic evacuation path is discussed in two stages. In the first stage, from the point of view of establishing emergency plan, the road traffic environment (grade, linear characteristics, etc.), road network structure, road traffic infrastructure and evacuation path reliability are fully considered. The optimization models of evacuation path selection and evacuation path assignment are put forward, and the C language program is written for the path selection model, which realizes the visual operation of path selection. The second stage is the path optimization after the emergency. Firstly, the path selection decision characteristics of the evacuees are analyzed, and the path selection model of the evacuees is established. Based on the influence mechanism and effect of traffic guidance information on evacuees, this paper puts forward how to optimize the route selection of evacuees, so as to avoid traffic congestion or waste of evacuation road resources caused by the preference of evacuees. In order to improve the efficiency of emergency traffic evacuation network and achieve evacuation path optimization. Finally, an empirical analysis of the evacuation route optimization method proposed in this paper is carried out through a comprehensive case study. The results show that the proposed method has a certain practical significance in guiding emergency traffic evacuation in practice. Through the research of this paper, the optimization method of emergency traffic evacuation path before and after the emergency incident is put forward, which enriches the systematic research on emergency traffic evacuation path. It is helpful to formulate more scientific and reasonable emergency traffic evacuation management policies and organizational measures, and to provide decision and reference for emergency traffic evacuation planning and management. However, due to the lack of actual relevant data, some of the model parameters are empirical values, which need to be further studied. Therefore, in the future research, it is necessary to further study the emergency traffic evacuation path selection, traffic information guidance and so on, combined with the relevant data in reality.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491

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本文編號：1903038