本文選題：城市道路交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài) + 時(shí)空相關(guān)性��； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：城市道路交通流特征分析、交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)綜合評(píng)價(jià)和預(yù)測(cè)理論及其應(yīng)用研究是智能交通系統(tǒng)建設(shè)和發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)和關(guān)鍵,不僅有助于交通管理部門全面掌握路網(wǎng)的整體運(yùn)行情況、分析交通擁堵成因及其變化規(guī)律,而且有助于出行者及時(shí)了解交通運(yùn)行信息,以便躲避交通擁堵路段,降低出行成本。這些對(duì)于緩解城市交通擁堵、提升交通管理效率和交通運(yùn)行信息服務(wù)質(zhì)量具有非常重要的理論意義和應(yīng)用價(jià)值。本文圍繞緩解城市道路交通擁堵問(wèn)題,面向交通管理和公眾出行的實(shí)際需求,結(jié)合采集的交通流基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)道路交通流時(shí)空特性分析、路網(wǎng)關(guān)鍵路段識(shí)別、路網(wǎng)交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)綜合評(píng)價(jià)、交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)長(zhǎng)時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)及其理論成果的實(shí)際應(yīng)用等問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了深入的研究,形成了系統(tǒng)的道路交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)分析的體系方法架構(gòu)。最后通過(guò)實(shí)際應(yīng)用案例分析,驗(yàn)證了研究成果的可行性和實(shí)用性。本論文的主要研究成果包括以下幾個(gè)方面:(1)以道路交通流的時(shí)空特性為基礎(chǔ),提出了基于時(shí)空相關(guān)性的道路交通流時(shí)空特征分析方法,實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)路網(wǎng)關(guān)鍵路段的有效識(shí)別。以時(shí)空相關(guān)函數(shù)作為量化指標(biāo),從時(shí)間和空間兩個(gè)角度對(duì)路段交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)之間的相互影響關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析。該方法首先根據(jù)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論和交通流的影響傳播關(guān)系,建立了路網(wǎng)空間鄰接矩陣;然后引入空間延遲算子,從整體和局部?jī)蓚�(gè)層次定義了時(shí)空相關(guān)函數(shù)的計(jì)算方法,并分別對(duì)整體路網(wǎng)和局部路段在不同時(shí)間延遲和空間延遲下交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)之間相互影響的動(dòng)態(tài)變化規(guī)律進(jìn)行了分析;最后將路段的重要性定義為路段與周邊相鄰路段交通狀態(tài)之間相互影響程度的大小,利用逼近于理想點(diǎn)的排序方法,通過(guò)局部時(shí)空相關(guān)函數(shù)計(jì)算每個(gè)路段與理想點(diǎn)之間的貼近程度,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)路段重要性的度量。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明該方法計(jì)算簡(jiǎn)單,能夠?qū)β肪W(wǎng)關(guān)鍵路段進(jìn)行有效識(shí)別,具有可行性和實(shí)用性,為構(gòu)建交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)綜合評(píng)價(jià)和預(yù)測(cè)模型提供了重要的理論依據(jù)。(2)以獲取的實(shí)際交通流數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了滿足不同需求的多層次的城市道路交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。針對(duì)交通管理、交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)以及出行信息服務(wù)的多層次需求,確定了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的選取原則和體系結(jié)構(gòu),構(gòu)建了城市道路交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,從微觀路段、中觀道路、宏觀路網(wǎng)三個(gè)層次對(duì)交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)在時(shí)間和空間上的變化特征進(jìn)行描述。然后根據(jù)路網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)特征,分別確定相應(yīng)的微觀路段、中觀道路和宏觀路網(wǎng)的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),并對(duì)各個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的定義、取值以及相關(guān)計(jì)算方法進(jìn)行了說(shuō)明。(3)以城市道路交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系為基礎(chǔ),提出了基于模糊熵-熵權(quán)法的交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)多指標(biāo)綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法。該方法充分考慮交通流的復(fù)雜性和模糊性,運(yùn)用FCM聚類分析方法將交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)劃分為非常暢通、基本暢通、穩(wěn)定通行、緩慢通行、一般擁堵和非常擁堵6個(gè)不同的狀態(tài)等級(jí),并確定了微觀、中觀指標(biāo)對(duì)應(yīng)不同狀態(tài)等級(jí)的模糊區(qū)間范圍。然后利用直覺(jué)模糊熵理論,將模糊區(qū)間轉(zhuǎn)化為直覺(jué)模糊數(shù),以此作為評(píng)價(jià)模型的輸入,選取路段重要性和流量公里數(shù)作為評(píng)價(jià)模型的權(quán)重。綜合運(yùn)用多個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),從微觀路段、中觀道路、宏觀路網(wǎng)三個(gè)層次對(duì)交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)進(jìn)行了量化,實(shí)現(xiàn)了定性分級(jí)描述和定量分析的有機(jī)結(jié)合。實(shí)例分析表明評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果符合人們的認(rèn)知,能夠滿足交通管理和公眾出行的需求。(4)以道路交通流時(shí)空相關(guān)性的周期性變化特征為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了基于非參數(shù)回歸核估計(jì)的交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)長(zhǎng)時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)模型。該方法以預(yù)測(cè)交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)綜合評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果(綜合評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù))為目標(biāo),采用非參數(shù)回歸的方法來(lái)估計(jì)未來(lái)時(shí)刻交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)的分布。首先根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)目標(biāo)與周邊路段交通流之間時(shí)空相關(guān)性的大小,從時(shí)間、空間兩個(gè)角度分析了路網(wǎng)其他路段對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)目標(biāo)的影響,確立了模型輸入的時(shí)空變量;然后利用函數(shù)型主成分分析的貼近度度量方法,對(duì)不同周期交通流時(shí)間序列之間的長(zhǎng)期變化趨勢(shì)的相似性進(jìn)行了計(jì)算;最后通過(guò)選取核函數(shù)和最優(yōu)窗寬,實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)交通運(yùn)行狀態(tài)的長(zhǎng)時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,該模型具有較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度,適用于其他不同層次評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的預(yù)測(cè),具有普適性和可擴(kuò)展性。(5)將論文理論研究與實(shí)際應(yīng)用相結(jié)合,提出了北京市道路交通運(yùn)行信息服務(wù)的應(yīng)用案例分析。立足北京市交通管理部門和出行者的實(shí)際需求,提出了面向交通管理的交通運(yùn)行信息評(píng)價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)服務(wù)和面向公眾出行的交通運(yùn)行信息預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)服務(wù),并對(duì)信息發(fā)布服務(wù)的應(yīng)用方案進(jìn)行了設(shè)計(jì)。以面向北京市的實(shí)際應(yīng)用案例,驗(yàn)證了論文理論研究成果的實(shí)用性和有效性。
[Abstract]:The characteristic analysis of urban road traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation and prediction theory of traffic operation state and its application are the foundation and key of the construction and development of the intelligent transportation system. It not only helps the traffic management department to master the overall operation of the road network in an all-round way, analyzes the cause of traffic congestion and the law of change, but also helps the travelers to be in time. In order to avoid traffic congestion and reduce travel costs, it is of great theoretical significance and application value to alleviate traffic congestion, improve traffic management efficiency and traffic information service quality. This paper focuses on alleviating traffic congestion in urban roads, facing traffic management and public exit. The actual demand of the line is combined with the basic data of the traffic flow, the analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the road traffic flow, the identification of the key sections of the road network, the comprehensive evaluation of the traffic operation state of the road network, the long time forecast of the traffic operation and the practical application of the theoretical results. In the end, the main research results of this paper include the following aspects: (1) based on the spatio-temporal characteristics of road traffic flow, a spatio-temporal feature analysis method based on spatio-temporal correlation is proposed to achieve the opposite path. The effective identification of key sections of the network is taken as the quantitative index of spatio-temporal correlation function. The interaction relationship between the traffic state of the road is analyzed from two aspects of time and space. First, the network space adjacency matrix is established based on the complex network theory and the influence of traffic flow, and then the space extension is introduced. Late operator, the calculation method of spatio-temporal correlation function is defined from the two levels of the whole and the local, and the dynamic change law of the interaction between the whole road network and the local section under the different time delay and the space delay is analyzed. Finally, the importance of the section is defined as the link and adjacent sections. The degree of mutual influence between traffic states is used to calculate the close degree between each section and the ideal point by the local spatio-temporal correlation function. The results of the experiment show that the method is simple and can effectively identify the key sections of the road network. It is feasible and practical, and provides an important theoretical basis for the construction of comprehensive evaluation and prediction model of traffic operation state. (2) based on the actual traffic flow data obtained, a multi-level urban road traffic operation state evaluation index system is constructed to meet the different needs. According to the multi-level demand of information service, the selection principle and system structure of evaluation index are determined. The evaluation index system of urban road traffic operation state is constructed. The change characteristics of traffic operation state in time and space are described from three levels of micro section, meso road and macro road network. Then, according to the characteristics of road network structure, The evaluation indexes of the corresponding micro sections, the meso road and the macro road network are determined respectively, and the definitions, values and relevant calculation methods of each evaluation index are explained. (3) based on the evaluation index system of urban road traffic operation state, a multi index comprehensive evaluation of traffic operation state based on fuzzy entropy entropy weight method is proposed. This method takes full consideration of the complexity and fuzziness of traffic flow, and uses the FCM clustering analysis method to divide the traffic state into 6 different state levels, namely, very smooth, smooth, stable, slow, common congestion and very congested, and determines the fuzzy interval model of the microscopic, meso index corresponding to different state levels. Then, using the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy theory, the fuzzy interval is transformed into the intuitionistic fuzzy number. As the input of the evaluation model, the weight of the link importance and the number of traffic kilometers is selected as the weight of the evaluation model. The traffic operation state is quantified from three levels, the micro section, the meso road and the macro view network. It realizes the organic combination of qualitative classification description and quantitative analysis. The case analysis shows that the evaluation results conform to people's cognition and can meet the needs of traffic management and public travel. (4) based on the periodic variation characteristics of the spatio-temporal correlation of road traffic flow, a long time preview of traffic operation state based on non parametric regression kernel estimation is constructed. The method uses the non parametric regression method to estimate the distribution of traffic running state in the future by using the method of non parametric regression to predict the distribution of traffic state in the future. Firstly, the road network is analyzed from two angles of time and space, according to the big small spatio-temporal correlation between the predicted target and the traffic flow of the surrounding sections. The spatial and temporal variables of the model are established by the impact of the section on the prediction target, and then the similarity between the time series of different cycle traffic flows is calculated by using the proximity measurement method of the functional principal component analysis. Finally, the traffic operation state is realized by selecting the number of kernel functions and the optimal window width. Long time prediction. The experimental results show that the model has high prediction accuracy and is suitable for other different levels of evaluation index prediction, it is universal and extensible. (5) combining the theoretical research and practical application of the paper, the application case analysis of Beijing city road traffic operation information service is put forward. Based on the Beijing traffic management department The actual demand of the door and the traveler, put forward the traffic operation information evaluation and statistics service oriented to traffic management and the traffic operation information forecast service oriented to the public travel, and design the application scheme of the information publishing service. The practical application case of Beijing is used to verify the practicability of the theoretical research results of the paper. And effectiveness.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491
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本文編號(hào)：1813627