本文選題：集卡到達(dá)時(shí)間 + GPS�。� 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著港口之間的競爭日益激烈,集裝箱碼頭越來越注重提高港口的服務(wù)水平。傳統(tǒng)的集中到達(dá)方式方便了碼頭布置裝卸作業(yè)調(diào)度計(jì)劃,但對貨主和集卡車隊(duì)安排運(yùn)輸造成不便,并引發(fā)了集裝箱碼頭閘口排隊(duì)擁堵和港區(qū)及周邊交通壓力過大等問題。因此,一些碼頭采取出口箱隨機(jī)到達(dá)的策略,以提高自身競爭力和提供便利服務(wù)。在隨機(jī)到達(dá)模式下,集裝箱到達(dá)港口的時(shí)間和到達(dá)順序都是未知狀態(tài),出口箱集中到達(dá)模式的傳統(tǒng)集裝箱碼頭的“泊位計(jì)劃→配載計(jì)劃→堆場計(jì)劃→集裝箱入港計(jì)劃”順序式計(jì)劃調(diào)度方法將不再適用。由于碼頭無法確定特定航次出口箱每天的到達(dá)量和到達(dá)時(shí)段,無法事先預(yù)留整塊箱區(qū)集中堆放,只能根據(jù)集卡實(shí)際到達(dá)情況和堆場空閑情況進(jìn)行分散堆放,這無疑對集裝箱碼頭堆場箱位分配帶來巨大的難度。因此,在隨機(jī)到達(dá)模式下,把握外部集卡到達(dá)規(guī)律及預(yù)測到達(dá)時(shí)間有利于提高集裝箱碼頭集卡調(diào)度的運(yùn)營效率和服務(wù)水平。本文分別建立了集卡到達(dá)時(shí)間靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測模型。靜態(tài)預(yù)測模型以集卡運(yùn)行的歷史數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),通過v-SVM模型預(yù)測集卡的行駛路徑和行駛時(shí)間；動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測模型使用v-SVM預(yù)測集卡的行駛路徑和路段基線行駛時(shí)間,以集卡實(shí)際運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)為系統(tǒng)輸入,使用Kalman更新預(yù)測值,通過迭代得到集卡到達(dá)時(shí)間動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測的結(jié)果。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明,靜態(tài)預(yù)測模型對暢通路段的預(yù)測結(jié)果較好,長距離易擁堵的路段預(yù)測誤差往往較大：動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測模型能夠根據(jù)實(shí)際運(yùn)行情況對預(yù)測結(jié)果動(dòng)態(tài)更新,在所有路段上的預(yù)測精度均較高,因此集卡到達(dá)時(shí)間動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測模型具有較高的預(yù)測精確度和魯棒性。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly fierce competition among ports, the container terminal is paying more and more attention to improving the service level of the port. The traditional centralized arrival method facilitates the scheduling of the loading and unloading operations of the wharf, but is inconvenient for the transportation of the cargo owners and the caravan fleet, and causes the congestion of the container head gate and the traffic pressure in the port area and the surrounding area. Therefore, some wharves take the strategy of random arrival of the export boxes to improve their competitiveness and provide convenience services. In the random arrival mode, the time and order of arrival of the container to the port are unknown, and the "berth plan, the loading plan, and the heap" of the traditional container terminal of the container terminal are concentrated in the mode of the container. The sequential planning and scheduling method of field plan to container entry plan will no longer apply. Because the terminal can not determine the daily arrival and arrival time of the specific voyage, it can not be reserved in the whole box area in advance. It can only be distributed according to the actual arrival situation of the container and the idle situation of the yard. This will undoubtedly be the container for the container. In the random arrival mode, it is beneficial to improve the operation efficiency and service level of the container terminal scheduling. In this paper, the static and dynamic prediction models of the arrival time of the container terminal are established. On the basis of the historical data of the line, the v-SVM model is used to predict the driving path and travel time of the collection card. The dynamic prediction model uses v-SVM to predict the driving path and the travel time of the base line, and uses the actual running data as the system input, updates the prediction value by Kalman, and obtains the dynamic prediction of the arrival time of the collection card by iteration. The calculation results show that the prediction results of the static prediction model are better for the unblocked section, and the prediction error of the long distance easily congestion is often larger: the dynamic prediction model can dynamically update the prediction results according to the actual operation conditions, and the prediction accuracy on all sections is high, so the dynamic prediction model of the arrival time of the collection card is of great importance. High accuracy and robustness.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U691.3

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本文編號(hào)：1782597