本文選題：混合交通　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知　出處：《北京理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：混合交通是世界很多城市比較常見(jiàn)的交通現(xiàn)象，尤其是機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)和非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)混合現(xiàn)象，混合交通中機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)和非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)會(huì)相互沖突干擾，導(dǎo)致交通效率和交通安全降低，，并容易引發(fā)事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。為此，認(rèn)識(shí)機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)和非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)產(chǎn)生沖突干擾機(jī)理，引入符合實(shí)際的模型來(lái)分析機(jī)非沖突風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知與避險(xiǎn)行為，為交通安全管理和交通規(guī)劃提供理論依據(jù)。本文主要工作如下： （1）針對(duì)我國(guó)混合交通中機(jī)非沖突干擾的特點(diǎn)，對(duì)機(jī)非沖突干擾問(wèn)題進(jìn)行實(shí)際調(diào)查，之后根據(jù)混合交通中機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)和非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)行為特點(diǎn)，分析混合交通中機(jī)非沖突干擾機(jī)理，并對(duì)機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)和非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)沖突干擾進(jìn)行了新的定義。 （2）根據(jù)實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)運(yùn)用生存分析法對(duì)機(jī)非沖突風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知進(jìn)行建模分析，得到機(jī)非沖突干擾概率和距離的關(guān)系，結(jié)果顯示：隨著機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)和非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)沖突干擾距離的增加，沖突風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知敏感性逐漸升高。同時(shí)，通過(guò)將非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)分為自行車(chē)和電動(dòng)車(chē)，分別分析其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知敏感性，得出自行車(chē)騎行人的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知敏感性大于電動(dòng)車(chē)騎行人的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知敏感性。 （3）機(jī)非沖突風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知敏感性受到多種因素影響，運(yùn)用持續(xù)期模型對(duì)影響因素進(jìn)行了分析，得到不同交通環(huán)境下的機(jī)非沖突風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知敏感性，同時(shí)，運(yùn)用相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率分析法從弱勢(shì)交通參與者的角度對(duì)不同因素影響程度進(jìn)行定量分析。結(jié)果顯示：非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)種類(lèi)（自行車(chē)、電動(dòng)車(chē)）、非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)速度、機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)速度、高峰小時(shí)非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)流量、高峰小時(shí)機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)流量、5分鐘時(shí)間段非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)流量和5分鐘時(shí)間段機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)流量等7個(gè)因素對(duì)機(jī)非沖突干擾造成顯著影響。同時(shí)，各因素影響效果的顯著程度也各不相同。 （4）對(duì)機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)與非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)沖突避險(xiǎn)距離和臨界避險(xiǎn)距離進(jìn)行建模研究，得到機(jī)非沖突避險(xiǎn)區(qū)域和臨界避險(xiǎn)區(qū)域，研究結(jié)果顯示：避險(xiǎn)區(qū)域、臨界避險(xiǎn)區(qū)域都與機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)和非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)速度密切相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Mixed traffic is a common traffic phenomenon in many cities all over the world, especially the mixture of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles. In mixed traffic, motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles will interfere with each other, resulting in lower traffic efficiency and traffic safety. It is easy to lead to accident risk. Therefore, the mechanism of conflict interference between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle is recognized, and a practical model is introduced to analyze the perception of non-conflict risk and the behavior of avoiding risk. To provide theoretical basis for traffic safety management and traffic planning. The main work of this paper is as follows:. 1) according to the characteristics of aircraft non-conflict interference in mixed traffic in China, the problem of non-collision interference is investigated, and then according to the behavior characteristics of motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle in mixed traffic, the mechanism of non-collision interference in hybrid traffic is analyzed. A new definition of conflict interference between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle is given. 2) based on the measured data, using survival analysis method to model and analyze the perception of aircraft non-conflict risk, the relationship between the probability and distance of aircraft non-conflict interference is obtained. The results show that: with the increase of conflict interference distance between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle, At the same time, by dividing non-motor vehicles into bicycle and electric vehicle, the sensitivity of risk perception was analyzed. The risk sensitivity of cyclists is higher than that of electric cyclists. 3) the sensitivity of aircraft non-conflict risk perception is affected by many factors. The influence factors are analyzed by using duration model, and the sensitivity of aircraft non-conflict risk perception under different traffic environment is obtained, at the same time, The relative risk rate analysis is used to analyze the influence degree of different factors from the angle of the weak traffic participants. The results show that the types of non-motor vehicles (bicycle, electric vehicle, non-motor vehicle speed, motor vehicle speed), Seven factors, such as peak hour non-motor vehicle flow, peak hour vehicle flow during 5 minutes and vehicle flow in 5 minutes, have a significant effect on non-conflict interference. The degree of significance of each factor affecting the effect is also different. (4) the model of vehicle and non-motor vehicle conflict risk avoidance distance and critical risk avoidance distance are studied, and the results show that, The critical safe havens are closely related to the speed of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491.2

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