本文選題：海上通道　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素識(shí)別　出處：《上海海事大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：為保障海上通道安全,針對(duì)海上通道安全的影響因素較多且相互關(guān)聯(lián)的特點(diǎn),提出一種考慮耦合效應(yīng)的海上通道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素識(shí)別方法。將二元語義應(yīng)用到專家問卷的語言評(píng)價(jià)信息,并將2-可加模糊測(cè)度擴(kuò)展到二元語義環(huán)境,完成對(duì)所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的識(shí)別分析。案例分析結(jié)果為:在中歐海上通道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素中,對(duì)單風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分析后得出影響最大的兩個(gè)因素是氣象水文海況和海上犯罪威脅,對(duì)任意兩個(gè)因素之間的耦合效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析后得出耦合效應(yīng)最強(qiáng)的兩組風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素是氣象水文海況和通航地理?xiàng)l件以及氣象水文海況和通道船舶密度。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the safety of maritime channels, the factors affecting the safety of maritime channels are many and interrelated. In this paper, a method of identifying the risk factors of sea passage considering coupling effect is proposed. The binary semantics is applied to the linguistic evaluation information of the expert questionnaire, and the 2-additive fuzzy measure is extended to the binary semantic environment. The results of the case study are as follows: among the risk factors in the CEIBS sea passage, the two most influential factors are the meteorological and hydrological sea conditions and the threat of crime at sea after the analysis of the single risk factor. By analyzing the coupling effect between any two factors, it is concluded that the two groups of risk factors with the strongest coupling effect are the meteorological hydrological sea condition and navigable geographical condition, the meteorological hydrological sea condition and the vessel density of the channel.
【作者單位】： 大連海事大學(xué)交通運(yùn)輸管理學(xué)院;中經(jīng)云數(shù)據(jù)存儲(chǔ)科技有限公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(71473023)
【分類號(hào)】：U698
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本文編號(hào)：1602718