本文選題：免費公交　切入點：偏好與效用　出處：《蘭州交通大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著公交優(yōu)先發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的進一步落實,政府財政收入的增加,城市軌道交通、快速公交(BRT)等大容量公共交通系統(tǒng)如雨后春筍般在國內(nèi)一二線城市相繼建成或開通,一些三四線城市也將其列入發(fā)展規(guī)劃之中。然而并不是所有的城市都有能力或者適合發(fā)展大型公共交通,因此一些城市創(chuàng)新公交發(fā)展方式,推行公交免費的運營方式,即免費公交,以之來提升公交分擔率,進而解決城市交通問題。然而這些城市實施的免費公交類型和效果不一,有的實施不到一周夭折,有的實施效果良好。目前,國內(nèi)外關(guān)于免費公交方面的理論研究較少,尚缺乏具備理論深度的相應文獻。本文的理論成果能為免費公交領(lǐng)域的深入研究提供參考,進而為城市公共交通的發(fā)展提供一種全新的模式,為解決城市交通問題提供一種新的思路和方法。同時,本文研究能使得免費公交的實施成為可能,對于為我國正在和將要實施免費公交的城市提供實踐指導。本文首先對免費公交進行概述,詳述國內(nèi)外不同地區(qū)的免費公交定義、實施類型以及與常規(guī)公交方式的差異特征,并就免費公交的實施效益進行定量分析;其次,引進居民出行決策的偏好與效用理論以及RP和SP調(diào)查方法,對基于居民出行特性的免費公交選擇意愿調(diào)查方案進行設計并實現(xiàn),并采用非集計模型/集計處理與χ2統(tǒng)計檢驗的分析方法分析調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù);第三,改進傳統(tǒng)的交通四階段模型,并通過算例分析,進一步研究免費公交實施對居民出行的影響機理。本文建立的理論模型有:基于免費公交實施的生成預測模型、基于效用最大化的分布預測模型、基于意愿選擇的交通方式劃分模型、基于公交客流競爭條件下的免費公交選擇概率模型以及基于屬性偏好的公交流量分配模型;第四,對免費公交實施的理論及其方法進行初步探討,研究高峰型、平峰型、全日型和局部型這四類免費公交的線路和站點設置的關(guān)鍵技術(shù),并通過選取案例城市,結(jié)合VISUM交通預測軟件實證研究了高峰型免費公交在城市中的應用;最后,結(jié)合實施案例,采用VISSIM仿真軟件對免費公交實施的路段交通系統(tǒng)進行微觀仿真,仿真結(jié)果表明,免費公交的實施能較好改善路段交通系統(tǒng)的服務水平。論文的創(chuàng)新之處在于從不同屬性群體的角度分析居民出行特征和乘坐免費公交的意愿,并以此作為基礎,探討免費公交的實施對居民出行的影響作用機理,研究免費公交實施理論及其關(guān)鍵技術(shù),并就免費公交實施的交通系統(tǒng)進行微觀仿真分析。
[Abstract]:With the further implementation of the development strategy of public transport priority, the increase of government revenue, mass transit systems such as urban rail transit, bus rapid transit (BRTT) and other mass transit systems have been built or opened one after another in the first and second tier cities in China. Some third-and fourth-tier cities have also included them in their development plans. However, not all cities have the ability or suitability to develop large-scale public transport. Therefore, some cities have innovated the way of public transport development and promoted the operation of public transport free of charge. That is, free public transport, in order to improve the public transport sharing rate, and then solve the urban traffic problem. However, the types and effects of free public transport implemented in these cities are different, some of which have been implemented for less than a week and some have achieved good results. At present, There are few theoretical studies on free public transport at home and abroad, and there is still a lack of relevant literature with theoretical depth. The theoretical results of this paper can provide a reference for further research in the field of free public transport. Then it provides a new mode for the development of urban public transport and a new way of thinking and method to solve the problem of urban traffic. At the same time, the research in this paper can make the implementation of free public transport possible. To provide practical guidance for the cities that are implementing and will implement free public transport in our country. Firstly, this paper gives an overview of free public transport, including the definition of free public transport, the types of implementation, and the characteristics of the difference between free public transport and conventional public transport in different regions at home and abroad. Secondly, introduce the preference and utility theory of residents' travel decision and RP and SP survey methods, and design and implement the free public transport choice will survey scheme based on residents' travel characteristics. The disaggregate model / set analysis and 蠂 2 statistical test are used to analyze the survey data. Thirdly, the traditional four-stage traffic model is improved, and an example is given. The theoretical models established in this paper are: the generation and prediction model based on free public transport implementation and the distribution prediction model based on utility maximization. Traffic mode partition model based on willingness choice, free bus choice probability model based on bus passenger flow competition and bus flow allocation model based on attribute preference; 4th, This paper discusses the theory and method of free public transportation, and studies the key technology of route and station setting of four kinds of free public transport, namely peak type, flat peak type, full day type and local type, and chooses the case city. Combined with VISUM traffic forecast software, the paper empirically studies the application of peak free public transport in cities. Finally, combining with the implementation case, using VISSIM simulation software to carry out microscopic simulation of the free public transport section traffic system, the simulation results show that, The implementation of free public transport can better improve the service level of road traffic system. The innovation of this paper lies in the analysis of residents' travel characteristics and their willingness to take free public transport from the perspective of different attribute groups, and take this as the basis. This paper probes into the mechanism of the effect of free public transport on residents' travel, studies the theory and key technology of free public transport, and makes a microscopic simulation analysis on the traffic system of free public transport.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.17

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本文編號：1598750