本文關(guān)鍵詞： 高速公路施工區(qū) 交通沖突 交通流參數(shù) 行車(chē)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型 行車(chē)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型　出處：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)早期修建的高速公路相繼進(jìn)入日常養(yǎng)護(hù)、大中修或改擴(kuò)建階段,由于高速公路施工區(qū)需要封閉部分車(chē)道,使得交通流較正常路段更為復(fù)雜,施工區(qū)的行車(chē)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于正常路段。因此,對(duì)施工區(qū)行車(chē)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析和度量研究,以便為施工區(qū)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制提供一項(xiàng)現(xiàn)代化的管理手段,從而更有效地捕捉可能導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以提高施工區(qū)的安全服務(wù)水平。本文基于VISSIM仿真研究了高速公路施工區(qū)的行車(chē)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況,發(fā)現(xiàn)交通流參數(shù)是施工區(qū)行車(chē)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要影響因素,運(yùn)用正交試驗(yàn)法對(duì)交通流參數(shù)進(jìn)行敏感性分析,找出關(guān)鍵變量,根據(jù)高速公路施工區(qū)的警告區(qū)、上游過(guò)渡區(qū)和工作區(qū)為主要交通沖突區(qū)的特點(diǎn),利用多元線性回歸方法建立施工區(qū)各區(qū)域的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型。以沖突率為評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),運(yùn)用超閾值(POT)模型和廣義帕累托分布(GPD)參數(shù)方法,建立基于非事故方法的施工區(qū)行車(chē)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型,同時(shí)研究了閾值的劃分方法,提高了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量的準(zhǔn)確性。此外,針對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型的不足,進(jìn)一步挖掘樣本數(shù)據(jù)信息,建立施工區(qū)行車(chē)期望損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型,拓展了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量的研究?jī)?nèi)容,對(duì)施工區(qū)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理具有重要意義。為進(jìn)一步證明基于沖突率-超閾值模型的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型的合理性,以事故損失為評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),通過(guò)桂柳路施工區(qū)實(shí)例分析,證明了以沖突率為評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的合理性;此外,運(yùn)用傳統(tǒng)計(jì)算方法計(jì)算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值,并將之與超閾值模型計(jì)算結(jié)果對(duì)比,進(jìn)一步證明了超閾值模型計(jì)算方法的可靠性。
[Abstract]:The expressway built in the early period of our country one after another entered the stage of routine maintenance, major and medium repair or reconstruction and extension. Due to the need to close part of the driveway in the expressway construction area, the traffic flow is more complicated than the normal section. The traffic risk in the construction area is much higher than that in the normal section. Therefore, the analysis and measurement of the risk in the construction area are carried out in order to provide a modern management method for the risk control in the construction area. In order to capture the possible risks more effectively and improve the safety service level of the construction area, this paper studies the traffic risk situation of the expressway construction area based on VISSIM simulation. It is found that the traffic flow parameter is the main influencing factor of the traffic risk in the construction area. The sensitivity analysis of the traffic flow parameter is carried out by using the orthogonal test method, and the key variables are found out. According to the warning area of the expressway construction area, The characteristics of the upstream transition area and the working area are the main traffic conflict areas. The risk assessment model of each region in the construction area is established by using the multivariate linear regression method. The conflict rate is taken as the evaluation index. By using the POT model and the generalized Pareto distribution GPD-parameter method, a non-accident risk measurement model for construction area is established. At the same time, the classification method of threshold value is studied to improve the accuracy of risk measurement. Aiming at the deficiency of the risk measurement model, the paper further excavates the sample data information, establishes the risk measurement model of the expected loss of traffic in the construction area, and expands the research content of the risk measurement. In order to further prove the rationality of the risk measurement model based on the conflict rate-over-threshold model, the accident loss is taken as the evaluation index. The rationality of using the conflict rate as the evaluation index is proved, in addition, the reliability of the calculation method of the super-threshold model is further proved by using the traditional calculation method to calculate the risk value and comparing it with the calculation results of the super-threshold model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491

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