本文關鍵詞：PPP模式下高速公路項目的風險評價與分擔研究　出處：《浙江海洋大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 高速公路 PPP 風險評價 風險分擔

【摘要】：現(xiàn)今,高速公路在國家綜合交通運輸網(wǎng)絡中的作用越來越突出,然而傳統(tǒng)的投資模式已經(jīng)不能滿足高速公路建設需求,此時,PPP模式的優(yōu)勢不斷凸顯并得到了相關政府部門的認可。雖然PPP模式具有傳統(tǒng)投資方式所不具備的優(yōu)勢,但是高速公路PPP項目投資資金量大、建設周期長、涉及的參與方眾多,準確評估項目風險、合理分配風險因素已經(jīng)成為風險管理的核心任務。本文站在公共部門立場上,從高速公路建設現(xiàn)狀和投資現(xiàn)狀出發(fā),詳細闡述現(xiàn)階段公路建設和投資所存在不足之處,論證了高速公路項目引入PPP模式的必然性和優(yōu)越性。其次,在結合相關文獻和國內(nèi)外工程實例的基礎上,識別并分析了高速公路PPP項目的4個一級指標、12個二級指標和33個三級指標風險,通過層次分析法計算各個風險指標權重并結合風險隸屬確定整個工程的風險等級。為了進一步完善高速公路PPP項目相關風險理論,本文在風險分配原則的指導下,運用shapley值模型,計算出公共部門和私人部門的風險分擔比例。為了更符合風險分擔的實際情況,綜合分析項目參與者的風險分擔能力修正原始shapley值,使得風險承擔的比例更加符合項目參與各方的實際承受能力,并能減少項目合作風險,保證項目順利進行。最后以重慶某高速公路為例,對風險評價模型和分擔模型進行實證分析。
[Abstract]:Today, the highway transportation network becomes more and more prominent in the country, but the traditional investment model has been unable to meet the demand of highway construction, at the same time, the advantages of PPP mode and continue to highlight the relevant government departments approval. Although the PPP model with the traditional way of investment do not have the advantage, but the amount of highway investment funds the PPP project is large, long construction period, involving many parties involved, accurate assessment of project risk, risk management has become the core task of the rational allocation of risk factors. This paper stands in the public sector position, starting from the present situation of highway construction and investment situation, elaborated the current highway construction and investment exist deficiencies, inevitability and the highway project demonstrates the advantage of the introduction of the PPP model. Secondly, on the basis of relevant literature at home and abroad and engineering examples, identification And the analysis of the PPP project of Highway 4 level indicators, 12 level two indexes and 33 level three indexes of risk calculation, the weight of each risk index and risk of the whole project to determine the membership level of risk by AHP. In order to further improve the relevant theory of risk in PPP project of highway, this paper under the guidance of the principles of risk allocation and using the Shapley value model, calculate the risk of the public and private sectors. In order to share more in line with the actual situation of risk sharing, comprehensive risk analysis of the project participants share the ability to modify the original Shapley value, the risk ratio is more consistent with the actual capacity of the parties involved in the project, and can reduce the risk of project cooperation, ensure project smoothly. Finally take the Chongqing expressway as an example, makes an empirical analysis on the risk assessment model and sharing model.

【學位授予單位】：浙江海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U415.1

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本文編號：1432025