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  本文關鍵詞：基于DSGE的城市交通碳排放驅動機制及測算模型　出處：《長安大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 交通碳排放 治理路徑 DSGE 情景分析

【摘要】：全球變暖加劇、環(huán)境惡化顯著,已經引起世界各國的高度重視。二氧化碳作為最為重要的溫室氣體也是節(jié)能減排的重點對象。在所有行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放中,交通行業(yè)是增速最快的,占全球溫室氣體排放的22%到24%,預計到2030年運輸相關的二氧化碳排放量將增長57%,遠遠超過全球其他行業(yè)。為尋求更合理的低碳交通實現路徑,實現城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,世界各國城市紛紛構建低碳交通體系并將其作為重點發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略舉措。但城市交通碳排放問題一直沒有得到很好解決。目前的研究主要是通過一些指標來對交通碳排放的部分相關因素進行分析,沒有對交通碳排放的內在驅動機制進行詳細而深入的探討,很難把握復雜多變的實際交通碳排放問題。深入細致地分析各碳排放因素之間的內在驅動機制,從中找到更加有效的碳排放治理路徑,制定合理的碳排放政策,是當前交通領域內研究不可忽視的一點。同時,在低碳交通政策方面,應用DSGE模型作為城市交通碳排放政策制定工具的研究仍較為缺乏。鑒于此,本文基于一般均衡理論,參考真實經濟周期(RBC)理論,同時考慮交通運輸產品的特性,引入運輸企業(yè)的生產函數和交通運輸消費者特有的效用函數,同時引入中國碳減排環(huán)境政策,構建DSGE模型來系統(tǒng)地解析交通運輸領域碳排放的內在驅動機制,及政府相關的低碳經濟政策效用,在此基礎上探尋交通運輸領域有定量依據的合理碳排放治理路徑,使其同時滿足消費者效用最大化和企業(yè)利潤最大化,為政府制定低碳交通發(fā)展政策提供參考。本文以2012年西安市交通統(tǒng)計數據為基礎年,構建了基準情景、征收碳減排成本情景、機動車限購情景、組合政策情景,通過MATLAB軟件進行DSGE模型的編程模擬和計算,對四種情景下的交通碳排放趨勢進行了詳細的對比分析,最終得出同時控制私家車交通碳排放和公共交通碳排放的組合政策治理效果最為顯著的結論,為政府交通碳排放治理路徑選擇提供了量化的理論依據。
[Abstract]:Global warming, environmental degradation significantly, has attracted great attention in the world. The focus of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas is an important energy saving and emission reduction. The carbon dioxide emissions in all industries, the transportation industry is the fastest growing, the total global greenhouse gas emissions by 22% to 24%, is expected to 2030 carbon dioxide emissions transportation will grow 57%, far more than other industries around the world. For low carbon transportation more reasonable path, realize the sustainable development of the city, the city of all countries in the world have set up low-carbon transport system and its development as the focus of strategic initiatives. But the problem of city traffic carbon emissions have not been solved. The present study is the main part of related factors on the traffic carbon emissions by some indexes to analysis, not on intrinsic driving mechanism of traffic carbon emissions in detail. The thorough discussion, it is difficult to grasp the actual traffic carbon emissions. The complex analysis of the intrinsic driving mechanism between the carbon emission factors deeply, find more effective governance path of carbon emissions in formulating rational carbon emissions policy, is a current research in the field of traffic can not be ignored. At the same time. In the low carbon transport policy, research and application of the DSGE model as the city traffic carbon emissions policy tools are lacked. In view of this, this paper based on the general equilibrium theory, with reference to the real business cycle (RBC) theory, considering the characteristics of transportation products, the utility function of transport enterprises into specific production function and the transportation of consumers at the same time, the introduction of China carbon emission reduction environmental policy, to construct systematically analytical field transport carbon emissions driving mechanism of DSGE model, and government related low carbon economy policy effect On the basis of this, to find a reasonable carbon transportation is the quantitative basis of the emission control path, to meet the consumer utility maximization and profit maximization, to provide the reference for the government to formulate the policy of the transportation development of low carbon. In 2012 the Xi'an municipal traffic statistics based, constructs the baseline scenario, carbon the cost of emission reduction scenarios, the purchase of motor vehicles, the combination policy scenario, simulation and calculation of DSGE model by MATLAB software, the traffic trend of carbon emissions in four scenarios of a detailed comparative analysis, finally draws the conclusion for the most significant effect while controlling for private cars and public transport carbon emissions carbon emissions combined the policy of governance, provides a theoretical basis for the selection of quantitative government transport carbon emissions governance path.

【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U12;X322

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本文編號：1416164