發(fā)布時間：2018-05-31 16:42

  本文選題：蒙特卡洛 + 水下對抗推演�。� 參考：《中國艦船研究院》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著魚雷向遠航程、高航速、低噪聲、智能化方向的發(fā)展，水面艦艇面臨著嚴重的水下威脅，如何有效地利用現(xiàn)有武器防御魚雷攻擊，對水面艦艇水下自防御系統(tǒng)作戰(zhàn)配置方案進行設(shè)計與優(yōu)選，成為各國海軍水下防務(wù)的重點。本文在“依據(jù)艦艇作戰(zhàn)效能指導艦艇作戰(zhàn)系統(tǒng)設(shè)計優(yōu)化”理念的指導下，，基于蒙特卡洛方法對艦艇水下對抗魚雷進行了開拓性的推演評估與研究工作，并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出一種艦艇水下自防御系統(tǒng)裝備配置方案的優(yōu)選方法。本文主要的研究內(nèi)容和研究成果包括以下幾個方面： （1）蒙特卡洛在水下對抗效能推演中的可行性及應(yīng)用分析。通過大量國內(nèi)外綜述文獻研究，對蒙特卡洛方法在效能推演中的應(yīng)用進行了可行性分析及驗證；提出了基于蒙特卡洛的水下對抗推演應(yīng)用指導過程，并分別進行了水下對抗效能推演的蒙特卡洛目標分析、建模分析和試驗分析等流程，確定了蒙特卡洛方法在艦艇水下對抗效能推演評估中的應(yīng)用步驟。 （2）基于蒙特卡洛法的高分辨率魚雷作戰(zhàn)行為建模。通過對典型魚雷作戰(zhàn)過程分析，針對現(xiàn)有魚雷二維作戰(zhàn)模型的不足進行了創(chuàng)新性改進和提高，建立了三維空間下的魚雷發(fā)射模型、運動彈道模型、自導檢測模型、狀態(tài)判斷模型和魚雷作戰(zhàn)誤差模型，為全面、詳細地描述各類型魚雷作戰(zhàn)行為和狀態(tài)變化提供了模型支撐。 （3）基于蒙特卡洛法的艦艇水下魚雷防御作戰(zhàn)行為建模。通過對水面艦艇對抗魚雷防御方法的綜合分析，分別建立了艦艇機動規(guī)避作戰(zhàn)行為模型、艦艇水聲對抗作戰(zhàn)行為模型、艦艇硬殺傷對抗行為模型和艦艇作戰(zhàn)誤差模型。 （4）艦艇水下對抗作戰(zhàn)實例推演評估及結(jié)果分析。在紅藍雙方水下作戰(zhàn)推演模型體系基礎(chǔ)上，依據(jù)蒙特卡洛效能推演評估流程，設(shè)計并編制實現(xiàn)了一艦艇水下對抗效能推演評估軟件，在此基礎(chǔ)上對紅藍雙方作戰(zhàn)方案進行了想定及算例推演，分析了相關(guān)作戰(zhàn)因素對艦艇水下對抗魚雷作戰(zhàn)效能的影響，推演結(jié)果表明：基于蒙特卡洛法建立的紅藍雙方水下對抗效能推演數(shù)學模型能夠有效的反映艦艇水下魚雷防御對抗效能。最后，論文依據(jù)單方案效能推演評估結(jié)果，提出了艦艇水下自防御裝備配置方案優(yōu)選方法。本文的研究成果豐富了艦艇水下自防御作戰(zhàn)效能推演評估的理論模型，具有一定的理論價值與現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:With the development of torpedo to long range, high speed, low noise and intelligence, surface warships are facing serious underwater threat. How to effectively use existing weapons to prevent torpedo attack, The design and optimal selection of operational configuration scheme for surface warship underwater self-defense system have become the focal point of underwater defense of various navies. Under the guidance of the concept of "guiding warship combat system design optimization according to warship operational effectiveness", this paper has carried out a pioneering evaluation and research work on warship underwater countermeasure torpedo based on Monte Carlo method. On the basis of this, an optimal method of equipment configuration for underwater defense system of warship is proposed. The main research contents and results of this paper include the following aspects: 1) the feasibility and application analysis of Monte Carlo in underwater countermeasure effectiveness. The feasibility analysis and verification of the application of Monte Carlo method in efficiency estimation are carried out through a large number of domestic and international literature reviews, and the guiding process of underwater countermeasure deduction based on Monte Carlo is proposed. The Monte Carlo target analysis, modeling analysis and experimental analysis of underwater countermeasure effectiveness are carried out, and the application steps of Monte Carlo method in evaluation of underwater combat effectiveness are determined. Second, high resolution torpedo combat behavior modeling based on Monte Carlo method. Based on the analysis of typical torpedo operation process, this paper improves and improves the existing torpedo two-dimensional combat model, and establishes the torpedo launch model, motion trajectory model and homing test model in three dimensional space. The state judgment model and the torpedo combat error model provide the model support for the comprehensive and detailed description of each type of torpedo operational behavior and state change. Based on Monte Carlo method, the operational behavior of underwater torpedo defense is modeled. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the methods of surface warship against torpedo defense, the models of maneuvering avoidance, underwater acoustic warfare, hard killing and warship combat error are established respectively. A case study of underwater combat against warships and analysis of the results are presented in this paper. Based on the model system of red and blue underwater combat, and according to the evaluation flow of Monte Carlo effectiveness, a software for underwater combat effectiveness evaluation of naval vessels is designed and implemented. On this basis, the scenarios and calculation examples of the operational schemes of the red and blue sides are presented, and the effects of the relevant operational factors on the operational effectiveness of the submarine torpedo are analyzed. The simulation results show that the mathematical model based on Monte Carlo method can effectively reflect the effectiveness of underwater torpedo defense. Finally, according to the evaluation results of single scheme effectiveness, the optimal selection method of underwater defense equipment configuration scheme is proposed in this paper. The research results of this paper enrich the theoretical model of operational effectiveness evaluation of underwater defense, and have certain theoretical value and practical significance.
【學位授予單位】：中國艦船研究院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U674.703

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