【摘要】：摘要：隨著城市化進程的加快,城市災害的鏈式效應越來越明顯,因為災害鏈式效應所造成的損失也越來越巨大。因此以災害鏈為核心對城市災害進行風險評估,才能全面、系統(tǒng)地把握城市災害的隱患程度,為構(gòu)建城市綜合防災減災體系、以及城市災害風險管理提供可靠的理論依據(jù)。本文針對城市災害鏈和風險評估當中的一些關(guān)鍵問題作了以下幾個方面的研究： (1)對城市災害鏈的形成機理進行了分析,結(jié)果表明在致災因子作用下各承災體之間復雜的相互作用關(guān)系是城市災害鏈產(chǎn)生的直接原因。對四種典型城市災害的鏈式效應進行了分析,指出城市災害鏈具有復雜的網(wǎng)絡結(jié)構(gòu)特征。城市災害鏈的能量效應分析表明致災體所釋放出的激發(fā)能,與各承災體能量的耦合作用是產(chǎn)生城市災害鏈的根本原因。 (2)對城市災害鏈的演化規(guī)律進行了分析,城市災害鏈在演變過程中具有階段性孕育特征,在時間效應上具有持續(xù)性影響和瞬時性影響兩種不同的演化行為。以災害鏈的演化規(guī)律為基礎,建立了基于復雜網(wǎng)絡的災害鏈數(shù)學模型,描述了各災害節(jié)點的災害損失速率和災害損失度,并提出了基于網(wǎng)絡節(jié)點脆弱性和連接邊脆弱性的斷鏈減災模式。 (3)以城市災害鏈系統(tǒng)動力機制描述為基礎,先進行了災害場景的設定,并考慮時滯性的影響,建立了城市災害鏈和城市災害管理的系統(tǒng)動力學模型。并利用Vensim對城市災害鏈系統(tǒng)的演化過程進行了仿真分析,得到了主要承災體易損性與災害損失速率之間的影響關(guān)系,指出降低城市生命線的易損性是降低在城市災害中人員傷亡率最有效的方法。城市災害管理系統(tǒng)動力學模型表明了災害與經(jīng)濟之間相互影響、相輔相成的關(guān)系,指出強調(diào)災害管理系統(tǒng)的溢出效應能提高減災的有效性。 (4)分別建立了人口、建筑物和生命線系統(tǒng)等城市主要承災體的災損敏感性評估模型。用人體的忍耐力和應急自救能力表征了人在漸發(fā)性災害和突發(fā)生災害時的災損敏感性,用建筑物的結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)和使用時間指數(shù)表征了建筑物的災損敏感性指數(shù)。利用均衡熵和脆性熵理論分別對單功能網(wǎng)絡的脆弱性和各生命線子系統(tǒng)脆性關(guān)聯(lián)程度進行了表征,建立了生命線系統(tǒng)的災損敏感性評估模型。 (5)從基礎應災能力和專項應災能力兩個方面,建立了多層次的城市應災能力評價指標體系。在對指標體系進行可量化處理的基礎上,采用改進層次分析法確定了各指標的權(quán)重系數(shù)�？紤]到城市應災能力評價指標的模糊性和層次性,建立了基于模糊模式識別的模糊綜合評判模型,通過構(gòu)造出各指標的最優(yōu)隸屬度,使得城市應災能力的評價更加科學和準確。 (6)在分析多災種風險評估和供應鏈風險評估方法的基礎上,運用貝葉斯公式得到各節(jié)點災害損失等級的聯(lián)合概率分布,構(gòu)建了城市自然災害鏈的風險評估模型；以多米諾效應為核心建立了城市技術(shù)災害鏈的風險評估模型。并通過應用實例表明所建立的模型與實際情況具有較高的吻合性,說明了模型的實用性。
[Abstract]:Abstract: With the acceleration of the process of urbanization, the chain effect of the urban disaster is becoming more and more obvious, as the damage caused by the chain effect of the disasters is also becoming more and more significant. Therefore, the risk assessment of the urban disaster is carried out by using the disaster chain as the core, so as to comprehensively and systematically grasp the hidden danger degree of the urban disaster, and provide a reliable theoretical basis for the construction of the comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction system of the city and the urban disaster risk management. In this paper, some key problems in urban disaster chain and risk assessment are studied in the following aspects: (1) The formation mechanism of the urban disaster chain is divided The results show that the complex interaction between the catacities under the action of the disaster-induced factor is the direct origin of the urban disaster chain. The chain effect of four typical urban disasters is analyzed, and it is pointed out that the urban disaster chain has a complex network structure. The energy effect analysis of the urban disaster chain shows that the excitation energy released by the catastrophic body and the coupling of the energy of the cataclysm are the fundamental of the production of the urban disaster chain. (2) The evolution law of the urban disaster chain is analyzed, and the urban disaster chain has the characteristics of periodic inoculation in the course of evolution, and has the effects of persistence and instantaneity on the time effect. Based on the evolution law of the disaster chain, the mathematical model of the disaster chain based on the complex network is established, the disaster loss rate and the disaster loss degree of each disaster node are described, and the break chain reduction based on the vulnerability of the network node and the vulnerability of the connection edge is put forward. (3) Based on the description of the dynamic mechanism of the urban disaster chain system, the setting of the disaster scene is first carried out, and the influence of the time lag is considered, and the system of the urban disaster chain and the urban disaster management is established. In this paper, the evolution of the urban disaster chain system is simulated and analyzed by using the Vensim, and the relationship between the vulnerability of the main disaster and the rate of disaster loss is obtained. It is pointed out that the reduction of the vulnerability of the lifeline of the city is the lowest in the urban disaster. The dynamic model of the urban disaster management system shows the interaction and mutually reinforcing relationship between the disaster and the economy, and points out that the spillover effect of the disaster management system can be improved. the effectiveness of the disaster is: (4) the disaster losses of the main catacities of the cities such as the population, the building and the lifeline system have been established respectively The sensitivity of the building is characterized by the endurance of human body and the ability of emergency self-help to characterize the disaster-loss sensitivity of human in the event of the occurrence of a disaster and the occurrence of a disaster. The structure index of the building and the use time index are used to characterize the building. The vulnerability of the single function network and the degree of brittleness of the lifeline subsystem are characterized by the equilibrium entropy and the brittle-entropy theory, and the disaster loss of the lifeline system is established. The sensitivity assessment model (5) has set up a multi-level city from two aspects of basic disaster response capacity and special disaster response capacity. The evaluation index system of the disaster capacity is based on the quantitative analysis of the index system, which is determined by the improved analytic hierarchy process. The weight coefficient of each index is given. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the fuzzy pattern recognition is established in consideration of the fuzziness and the level of the evaluation index of the city response capacity. The optimal membership degree of each index is constructed, so that the urban disaster response capacity can be reduced. The evaluation is more scientific and accurate. (6) Based on the analysis of the risk assessment and the risk assessment method of the supply chain, the joint probability distribution of the disaster loss level of each node is obtained by using the Bayesian formula, and the urban self-evaluation is constructed. The risk assessment model of the disaster chain is the core of the domino effect. The risk assessment model of the operation disaster chain is presented. The application examples show that the established model is in good agreement with the actual situation.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X4

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